1. Role of Agrometeorological Advisory Services in Managing Risk Under Changing Climate
DR S. D. ATTRI
India Meteorological Department
Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi

2. FWCC 1979 (Scientific Knowledge)
‘Climate Variability and Change as an issue of concern worldwide ’
IPCC
WCC-3 (31 Aug-4 Sept. 2009)
Societal services
‘Climate prediction and information for decision-making
GFCS
Observation & Monitoring
Climate Research &
Modeling
Climate Services &
Information System
Climate Services
Application Programme
SWCC 1990
Political Awareness
‘More momentum to address Climate Variability and Change’
GCOS
UNFCCC
Development
policy

3. 3

4. RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, 2013
Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012 as determined by linear trend. White areas indicate incomplete or missing data. Trends have been calculated only for those grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Black plus signs (+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90% confidence interval)
IPCC, 2013

5. 5

6. WARMEST YEARS (1880–2016) Warmest year 2016: +0.83 degree C
15 out of 16 warmest years on record in the 21st century
Each of the last three decades warmer than the previous one
as the warmest decade on record.
: Warmest

7. Climatic Variability during Recent Past

9. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND OVER INDIA (1901-2016)
Winter: 0.72°C
Pre-monsoon: 0.61°C
Monsoon: 0.35°C
Post Monsoon: 0.81°C
Trend : 0.65°C /100 years

10. Spatial Variation of mean annual Temperature Changes in last century

11. TREND OF RAINFALL DURING SW MONSOON AND ANNUAL (mm of rainfall in 100 years)11

12. Trend in sub- divisional rainfall data (increase/ decrease in rainfall in mm) for different seasons ( ).

13. Observation Network and Weather Forecast

14. Global Climate Observing System
Core tasks:
Defining and regular updating of climate requirements for global observing systems, and;
Highlighting gaps in global observing systems for climate, and taking remedial action
WMO
GCOS Sectt
Terrestrial
Oceanic
Panels
Jointly with Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) of FAO
integrated system of in situ and satellite observations of the terrestrial-ecosystem
Jointly with Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) of IOC.
liaison and advocacy for the agreed observing plans
Observations in the areas of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry
UNEP
UNESCO
ICSU
Atmospheric

16. CLIMATE CHAGE PROJECTION (IPCC 2013)
2046– –2100
Global Mean Surface Temperature Change (°C)
mean likely rangec mean likely range c
RCP to to 1.7
RCP to to 2.6
RCP to to 3.1
RCP to to 4.8
Global Mean Sea Level Rise (m)
RCP to to 0.54
RCP to to 0.62
RCP to to 0.62
RCP to to 0.81

17. Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s under A1B scenario in AR5
Rainfall
Temp
Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

18. Per Capita CO2 Emissions
Sweden’s example shows that it can be done. They have a plan to lower emissions by another factor of two in the next few decades. Their per-capita GDP is higher than the U.S., and we can observe that wealth and services are more equitably distributed than in the U.S.

20. Weather Observation & Monitoring Network
AWS
ARG
550
1350
680
RAIN GAUAGE
RS/RW NETWORK
RADAR

21. Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast
Nowcast & very short range for next hours
(Venue/ location specific)
Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division)
Medium Range for next 3-10days (City & District)
Extended range for fortnight and month
(Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions)
Long range for season
(Homogeneous regions/country)
Early warning system on extreme events

22. Nowcast Medium range Forecast Thunderstorm Hailstorm Squall GFS-T1534
Spatial Res km
Forecast for 10 days

23. Long Range Forecast April June July August
Month of Forecast Issue
All India
All India
June – September Rainfall
April
Update for All India
June – September Rainfall
June
All India Monthly
(July & August) Rainfall
All India Second Half of Season
August - September Rainfall
July
All India Monthly
September Rainfall
August
Geographical Regions
June – September Rainfall for Four Geographical Regions
In addition, Forecast for Date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala in May 23

24. Agromet Advisory Services

25. An Overview of Operational Agromet Advisory Services
Multichannel Dissemination of Agromet Advisories to the Farmers through SMS and IVR
Agromet Field Units at ACZ level
Regional and State Meteorological Centers of IMD
Value Addition
Farmer Awareness Programs
Krishi Vigyan
Kendras
Taking Feedback
from the Farmers
IMD, NWP Section District and Block Level Forecast
Farming
Communities
Giving Feedback to KVKs and Agromet Field Units

26. Network under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa
DAMUs at KVK
23 AAS Units
Of IMD
130 Agromet Field Unit at SAUs & ICAR Centres
35 AICRPAM centres under ICAR

27. Collaborating Agencies
Ministry Of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Indian Council For Agricultural Research
State Agricultural Universities
Department Of Agriculture ,Cooperation & FW
State Departments Of Agriculture
Ministry of Information Technology
Ministry of Science & Technology
Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (AIR & TV)
Print Media
Department of Space
Min. of Rural Development
MSSR Foundation & other NGOs & PP

28. Targeted Agromet Advisories to farmers
In different stages of crops
In Farm operations
Tactical Decisions
Seed Management,
Irrigation,
Fertilizer Application,
Pesticide spraying, etc...
Sowing
Transplanting
Vegetative
Grain formation
Harvesting, etc...
14,15 slides : Advisories for practical and strategic decisions
Strategic Decision: Contingent Planning
Medium duration crop
Alternate crop
Mixed crops
etc...

29. National Level Bulletin
State Level Bulletin
District Level Bulletin
for Chennai

30. Multichannel Dissemination
Forecast from IMD, New Delhi
State Met Centres
Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs
Personal Contact
Radio
News Papers
Krishi Vigyan Kendra
State Agril. Dept.
Farmer
Television
SMS on mobile
~2 crore
Website
Mausam Khabar
Kisan Samachar
Farmers feedback
Through mobile

31. One in nine family connected in the country.
Salient Achievements
To increase to 95.4 million
19.3
8.06
5.06
3.40
636
622
600
593
One in nine family connected in the country.
Increase in dissemination of Agromet advisories for millions of farmer from 2012 to 2016
Increase in issue of District Level advisories from 2012 to

32. Economic Impact Assessment by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
95% of the farmers (surveyed) have been experiencing an improved reliability of the service in 2015.
The incremental profit due to Agromet Advisory Services is assessed to be 25% of their net income. 
The Annual Economic Profit of 24% of the community, cultivating 4-principal crops (wheat, paddy, sugarcane and cotton), after using the Agromet Advisory Service in 2010, was assessed at Rs. 38,463 crs and this has raised to Rs. 42,000 crs in 2015.
Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva has the potential of generating net economic benefit up to Rs. 3.3 lakh crores on the 22-principal crops alone when Agromet Advisory Service is fully utilized by 95.4 million agriculture-dependent households. 

33. AUTOMATION OF AGROMET ADVSIORY
Use of Regionally Integrated Multi-Hazards Early Warning System under customization or other agencies.
Distinction in the advisory for Irrigated and Rainfed agriculture is being customized.
RIMES is already functional at Myanmar, Bangladesh, Srilanka.

34. Automation of Agromet Advisory System Overview
Observed Rainfall and Temperature Data
Agromet Decision Support system
WRF Model Forecast 3 days lead time
(3 x 3 km)
Short SMS based on 5 days forecast information
IITM- GFS Model Forecast days lead time
(12.5 x 12.5 km)
10 Day Agro-met bulletin
Agriculture Information:
Location, Major Crop and Cultivar Dynamic crop weather calendar
Crop health and soil wetness
Crowd sourcing through network

35. …thank you