1. Transport Economics in Small (Island) States
James Reeves
MA BA Hons
Senior Technical Director, Economics and Finance
IMC Worldwide

2. Introduction Graduated with MA Transport Economics 1989
26 years in consultancy, 2 years in UK Local Authority
Worked in 43 countries
Roads, rail, aviation, ports and shipping, urban transport
Economic appraisal, national transport planning, infrastructure financing

3. Worked in 43 countries

4. IMC Worldwide 120 staff Currently working in 25+ countries
Can trace history back directly to 1968
Core is engineering, institutional strengthening, economics and finance
Also environment, social studies, monitoring and evaluation, trade, urban development

5. IMC Economics and Finance
8 people
Current projects – Philippines, Egypt, Dominica, Serbia, Belarus, Caribbean Region, Swaziland, Kenya, Nepal
PPP Transaction Advisory, Climate Change Adaptation, Public Investment Management, Road Sector Reform, National Development Planning, Programme Evaluation

6. Niue National Transport Strategy

7. Niue National Transport Strategy
ToR
Develop a new National Transport Strategy
Develop a 3 year National Transport Sector Action Plan
Identify opportunities for revenue generation
Support applications to the Green Climate Fund for key Infrastructure
Stakeholder consultation and presentations

8. Transport Strategy Objectives
Effectiveness Efficiency Resilience
ensuring that the transport system meets the needs of Niue and supports social and economic development programmes
improving the way services are planned and delivered
ensuring that revenue generated within the transport sector, stays within the transport sector
making Niue’s transport infrastructure resilient to the impacts of climate change and disasters
maximising reliability and minimising losses due to the transport system

9. Cyclone Heta, Niue, 2004

10. Aviation Airport recognised as critical asset
Retaining ICAO license is crucial
Maintenance issues paramount
Need to improve passenger experience
Try to attract more services from different places

11. Maritime Wharf recognised as Niue’s most critical asset
Need to protect the wharf from climate change
Wharf crucial for ship operations
Major maintenance planned on sea walls
Wharf needs to have more space and operate 24/7

12. Roads Roads provide the key linkages between villages
Mix of coastal ring and cross island roads
Some key links not sealed

13. Key Objectives
Providing effective planning and implementation of maintenance programmes for key assets
Ensuring effective budgeting for operational and maintenance activities
Ensuring that the transport system supports the achievement of the NNSP
Incorporating climate change adaptation and disaster risk mitigation into all plans
Ensuring that transport infrastructure can meet the requirements of Niue’s international treaties and statutory obligations
Minimising the carbon footprint of the transport system and wherever possible incorporating low carbon technologies.

14. Elements of the Strategy
No sweeping changes to service delivery
Continue to review the role of the private sector in delivery
Adopt the user pays principle across the sector
Recognise critical assets
Ensure improved asset maintenance
Build the human resource within the sector
Responding to climate change is paramount
Providing more resilience to climate change and disasters is the focus of all policy
Transport strategy includes aviation, maritime, roads and major plant
Legal, institutional and financial issues are considered

15. Niue National Transport Strategy
Prioritisation Framework

16. Niue National Transport Strategy
What happens next?
Strategy and Action Plan have been approved by Parliament
Funding for key schemes needs to be agreed
Application to GCF for feasibility studies
Purchase new equipment using the Niue Trust Fund
Finalise agreements for NZ and China for key schemes

17. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

18. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Terms of Reference
Complete condition, hazard and risk assessments
Identify interventions to increase resilience
Complete economic appraisal of investment options
Undertake stakeholder consultation
Complete environmental and social safeguards studies

19. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Why is this road important?
It serves a population of over 5,000
It is the only link to major settlements along the south coast
Around 3 km of the road is alongside the sea
The road was badly damaged by tropical storm Erica in 2015
It serves the brewery!

20. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Elements of the Project
Repair the road surface
Install river training works
Replace inadequate bridges
Stabilise landslide areas
Install new coastal protection measures
Improve road safety features
Reinstate previous downside failures
Install rock nets

21. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

22. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Measurement of Economic Benefits
Benefits of improved road surface (reduced roughness, shorter journey times)
Reduced damage to infrastructure
Reduced costs of dislocation
Reduced likelihood of dislocation
Likely reduced length of dislocation
Reduces need for emergency response
Reduced need for relocation of people

23. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Costs of dislocation
8 hour closure
Delays to trips
3 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income
10 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions
20 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions, costs of emergency transport and accommodation

24. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

25. Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
What Happens Next
(What should have happened)
Approval of recommended option (Q3 2017)
Detailed design (Q – Q2 2018)
Construction (Q – Q4 2019)
After Hurricane Maria
(What is now likely to happen)
After cleanup and emergency works
Revisit feasibility study
Produce new/revised recommendations

26. Key Questions Can we make everything resilient, economically?
How do we value the benefits of reducing the effects of climate change and disasters?
Small (island) states face a common set of problems. What are the potential solutions, when you don’t have enough people, enough money, or enough resource?