1. Branching Simulations
Tsvet Ross-Lazarov
COMET Instructional Designer

2. Fire Weather Simulation
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3. Simulation Benefits enhance safety
experiences not readily available in reality
modify time frames
make rare events more common
control complexity

4. Creating a Simulation Learn and analyze the phenomena
Create and refine the underlying model
Make design decisions
Transfer the model into software
Develop the user interface
Develop instructional supports

5. Create Underlying Model
Effective learning simulations
Rule of 3s
3 hours without shelter
3 days without water
3 weeks without food

6. Which elements make up the model in the fire simulation
Which elements make up the model in the fire simulation? Select all that apply.
Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms.
State your confidence in the forecast.
Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive.
State the expected impacts.
Describe the weather situation using appropriate science terms.
20%
Response Counter

7. Design Decisions Sequence and type of actions How many choices
What feedback to give
Text, graphics, interface

8. What are the questions in the model? Select all that apply.
What will the weather do today?
Where should the firefighters work?
When will the weather begin?
Where will the storms be in relation to the fire?
How confident are you in the forecast?
What will be the main impacts?
17%
Response Counter

9. Model
Actions
Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms.
State your confidence in the forecast.
State the expected impacts.
Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive.
What will the weather do today? When will the weather begin? Where will the storms be?
How confident are you in the forecast?
What will be the main impacts?
Select option that indicates calm response

10. Design Decisions 3 questions with 3 choices each 27 possible paths
Text and images quicker and cheaper

11. Feedback is Balancing Act
Natural vs Artificial Feedback
Natural
Problem without solution
Artificial
Prevents errors

12. What type of feedback did we give in the fire weather simulation
What type of feedback did we give in the fire weather simulation? Select the best answer.
Natural
Artificial
Mixture
33%
Response Counter

13. Feedback is Balancing Act
Immediate vs Delayed
Immediate
Message about error
Delayed
Natural feedback

14. Did we use Delayed or Immediate feedback? Select the best answer.
50%
Response Counter

15. Feedback is Balancing Act
Learners like Immediate and Artificial feedback
Delayed and Natural Produces lasting learning
Mistakes and consequences
Novice learners Immediate and Artificial feedback
Experienced learners Delayed and Natural

16. Simulation Exercise Communicate probability and Impacts
60% chance of 300mm of rain = minor flooding
10% chance of 600mm of rain = catastrophic flooding
Create a two question simulation with two options each.
Communicate the probability of precipitation in a clear and concise way free of meteorological terms
Communicate potential impacts from the precipitation based on the concerns of the emergency manager.

17. Create the Model
Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms.
State your confidence in the forecast.
State the expected impacts.
Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive.
Handout (5 min)

18. Possible Model
Express the probabilities for the most likely and less likely scenarios
Explain the impacts from the more likely scenario - minor flooding will result. Describe the potential for catastrophic flooding.
Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive.
Handout (5 min)

19. Create a Simulation Map
Handout (5 min)

20. Possible Simulation Map

21. Questions, Options, Feedback
What will the weather do today? When will the weather begin? Where will the storms be?
How confident are you in the forecast?
What will be the main impacts?
Select option that indicates calm response
Handout (5 min)

22. Possible Questions
Scenario: You have received a call from Emergency Manager
How much rain will fall over our town?
In 6 out of 10 instances (60%) 300 mm; in 1 out of 10 instances (10%) 600 mm.
There is a 10% chance of 600 mm from this storm but it could be less.
What are the impacts?
In the more likely scenario, minor flooding will result. But there is the potential for catastrophic flooding.
There is potential for catastrophic flooding in the town.

23. References
Brown, Peter C. ( ). Make It Stick. Harvard University Press. Kindle Edition.
Alessi, S., & Trollip, S., (2001). Multimedia for Learning, Methods and Development. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.