1. FISHERIES MANAGEMENT –
WHAT’S COMING NEXT?
Doug S Butterworth
MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
A CAUTION
Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

2. OUTLINE Science and Scientists ENGOs and Ecolabeling
Objectives for Management
Governance
What should industry be doing?

3. I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
SCIENCE - ASSESSMENT
GENETICS
No – not for stock structure
Abundance estimation using genetic fingerprinting and mark recapture concepts
Close kin (parent-offspring)
Genetic tagging (avoids reporting rate problems) 3

4. I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
SCIENCE – EAF/EBFM
Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management
By-catch controls
Increasing emphasis
Species interactions (predator-prey)
Important, but progress will be slow
Habitat impact
“Eye of the beholder”
Environment/Climate change
Predictive ability a good way off 4

5. I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS
Reduction of financial support
Especially Governments, except perhaps ENGOs
Diminishing quantitative expertise
I see only the USA investing seriously in succession for the baby-boomer cohort
A DEFINITE CONCERN 5

6. II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs - A mixed blessing
Provide pressure for necessary improvements
but
Over-emphasise special interest agendas
A KEY PROBLEM
The typical ENGO public fund-raising model
Requires continual “issues” to motivate funds provision
Hence no agreement on an issue is likely to be final 6

7. II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
THE 2008 WATERSHED
Under ENGO pressure, the supermarket buyers of Northern Europe agreed to sell fish products only if they were MSC certified
They thereby performed a silent and unrealised coup d’etat on Ministers of Fisheries as to who decides fisheries policy
A MAJOR GAME CHANGER 7

8. II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
MSC – SEPTEMBER LANDMARK RULING
ADJUDICATOR RULING (given ENGO objection):
Certification must fail without a harvest control rule formally accepted by the managing authority
A VERY POSITIVE STEP?
Isn’t pre-agreement of what to do when stock status deteriorates a sine qua non for sound management? 8

9. II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs will continue to press for more stringent MSC criteria
BUT
Developing countries will be increasingly unable to meet such criteria
Lack of expertise/infrastructure
Loss of incentive/opportunity to improve fisheries management where most needed
HOW WILL THE MSC REACT? 9

10. II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING
ENGOs: THE GREAT PUSH FOR MPAs
WHY?
MPAs HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE UTILISATION OF FISH RESOURCES?????
PERHAPS AN OUTFLANKING STRATEGY?
INDUSTRY INFLUENCE GENERALLY DOMINATES IN FISHERIES DEPARTMENTS AND RFMOs
CONTINUING APPEALS THEN DIRECTED RATHER TO, EG, THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
MOTIVATED BY A CONCERN THAT STANDARD FISHERIES MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL? – JUSTIFIED? 10

11. III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
EG THE US MAGNUSSON-STEVENS ACT
AVOID OVERFISHING: F > FMSY
OVERFISHED: B < (0.5)BMSY - NEEDS RECOVERY
BUT
HOW WELL CAN WE ESTIMATE MSY AND BMSY?
FOR MOST USA STOCKS PROXIES HAVE TO BE USED
MIXED SPECIES FISHERIES - CHOKE STOCKS
NEW ENGLAND:
Only half of overall groundfish TACs landable
Fishery facing economic extinction 11

12. III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
MORE REALISM NEEDED
DROP THE F < FMSY REQUIREMENT
MANAGE FOR GREATER CATCH STABILITY OVER TIME
ADVANCES IN SPECIES-INTERACTION MODELLING ARE NEEDED
CAN ALL SPECIES IN A MIXED FISHERY DELIVER MSY, BMSY SIMULTANEOUSLY?
BUT FOR CLEARLY DEPLETED STOCKS, INSIST ON SOME INCREASE
BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS:
RISES IN THE REAL COST OF FUEL WILL NECESSITATE HIGHER ABUNDANCES IN THE LONGER TERM 12

13. III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT
PROPERTY RIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR AN INCENTIVE TO CONSERVE
BUT
LIMITS (FISHERY SPECIFIC) ARE NEEDED ON MAXIMUM HOLDINGS
RIGHTS IN PERPETUITY ARE OFTEN POLITICALLY PROBLEMATIC
NEED SOME MECHANISM TO ALLOW LIMITED CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM 13

14. WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY? NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION
IV) GOVERNANCE
WHAT WORKS?
AND IN CONTRAST
WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY?
NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION
WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs?
CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY
COMMUNICATION 14

15. IV) GOVERNANCE WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs?
THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE
THE US EXPERIMENT:
SCIENTIFIC (SSC) TAC ADVICE (BASED ON PRE-SET GENERAL GUIDELINES) MAY NOT BE EXCEEDED
NOT IDEAL
IRRESPONSIBLE COMMENTS AND INSUFFICIENTLY INTERESTED/EXPERIENCED PEOPLE
NEEDS A BALANCED GROUP OF SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND STAKEHOLDERS 15

16. AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY
IV) GOVERNANCE
CONTROL RULES vs
AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY
THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE
RECENT MSC ADJUDICATION FOR CONROL RULES
SCIENTISTS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOUR THE CONTROL RULE APPROACH
DON’T BE SCARED OF SUPPOSED INFLEXIBILITY
SOUND RULES WILL GIVE YOU (THROUGH DUE PROCESS)
GREATER STABILITY
BETTER PROTECTION AGAINST MAVERICK INFLUENCES AND DECISIONS 16

17. (THE INADEQUACY THEREOF) 200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM BOTH SIDES
IV) GOVERNANCE
COMMUNICATION
(THE INADEQUACY THEREOF)
MANAGERS AND INDUSTRY
SELDOM HAVE A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERY MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
OFTEN AREN’T PREPARED TO SPEND SUFFICIENT TIME TO LEARN THEM
MANAGERS CHANGE TOO FREQUENTLY
SCIENTISTS
THEIR PRESENTATION STYLE IS GENERALLY HOPELESSLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR LAY AUDIENCES
HOW RELIABLE ARE THEIR PROMISES OF GAIN TOMORROW FROM PAIN TODAY? (New England???)
200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM BOTH SIDES 17

18. V) WHAT SHOULD IDUSTRY BE DOING?
INVEST MORE IN SCIENCE AND FISHERY INDEPENDENT SURVEYS
MAKE MORE USE OF CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORS (AVOIDING THE HIRED GUN ROUTE)
IMPROVE INDUSTRY-GROUP CO-ORDINATION
BASE POSITIONS ON DEFENSIBLE PRINCIPLES
AVOID SHORT-TERM EXPEDIENCY, WHICH WILL RETURN TO BITE YOU 18

19. Thank you for your attention