1. Decision Making in Practice Case Study of Aceh-Nias Recovery
Universitas Syiah Kuala
Banda Aceh, 03 September 2008

2. “Somewhere along the line of development, we discover
WHAT IS DECISION MAKING?
“Somewhere along the line of development, we discover
what we really are, and then we make our real decision for which we are responsible.”
Eleanor Roosevelt
First Lady of the United States ( )
President and Chair of the United Nations Commission on Human Rights ( )
Other standard definitions
Identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences
Reducing uncertainty and doubt to allow a reasonable choice
Using information as much as possible to minimize risks
Etc.

3. + WHAT ARE INVOLVED IN DECISION MAKING? Pre-Decision Making
Uncertainties ~ Risks
Pre-Decision Making
Decision Making
Post-Decision Making
Decision goals and criteria
Set of decision alternatives
Relevant principles and values
Available information
Rational evaluation/ analysis
Judgment/ intuition
Consequences
Results +

4. RECOVERY OF ACEH AND NIAS STARTED WITH THIS

5. THE GOAL: RECOVER FROM THE UNPRECEDENTED DAMAGE
More than 800 kilometer coastal line hit, longer than the distance from London to Glasgow or from San Francisco to San Diego, with devastation reached 1-6 kilometer in-land.
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
Damage assessment
800 km
x 1-6 km
destroyed!
Houses destroyed
70.000
Houses damaged 14
Sea ports
120
Bridges
3.000 km
Roads
1.052
Government buildings
2.000
School buildings
114
Health centers ha
Fish ponds ha
Agriculture land
SMEs
Students lost their schools
2.500
Teachers died
Jakarta
Surabaya
760km
Medan
Jambi
850 km

6. THERE ARE ALTERNATIVES ON HOW TO PLAN AND DO RECONSTRUCTION…
Definition
Sequential
Reconstruction is done sector by sector based on normal sequence in a regional development
Illustration:
Paddy fields
Housing
Road
Schools
Etc.
Parallel
Reconstruction is done with all sectors being addressed at the same time
Illustration:
Housing
Road
Paddy fields
Etc.

7. …EACH WITH ITS IMPLICATIONS
Positive implication
Risks
Sequential
Easy to manage and coordinate projects
Simple planning
Cost efficiency
Long and lengthy process
Social unrest as tsunami survivors have to wait long
Parallel
Fast revival of every aspect of community life
Maximum leverage of immediate assistance coming from outside Aceh/Indonesia
Complicated and continuous planning
Potential overlaps leading to extra costs

8. CAN WE ADDRESS THIS SITUATION WITH SEQUENTIAL APPROACH?

9. CAN WE ADDRESS THIS SITUATION WITH SEQUENTIAL APPROACH?
June 2007
December 2005
June 2007
December 2005
CAN WE ADDRESS THIS SITUATION WITH SEQUENTIAL APPROACH?

10. Choosing the best alternative is as easy as calculating:
IF ONLY WE WERE FULLY RATIONAL AND SO WAS OUR ENVIRONMENT …
For all decision strategies…
1. OPTIMIZING
= to find the alternative resulting in optimum output
2. SATISFYING
= to find the alternative resulting in satisfactory output
3. MAXIMAX
= to find the alternative resulting in maximum output among the maximum options
4. MAXIMIN
= to find the alternative resulting in maximum output among the minimum options
Choosing the best alternative is as easy as calculating:
Probability x Expected Value

11. HOW TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTY
…BUT WE LIVE IN A NON-RATIONAL AND NON-IDEAL WORLD
Rational/Ideal situation
Actual situation
Decision maker is logical and rational
Problem is perfectly defined
All criteria is identified clearly
All information is available and accurate
All relevant alternatives are available
Assessment and evaluation can be done easily
Decision maker has biases and uses intuition
Problem is sometimes unclear
Criteria is complicated
Information is incomplete
Relevant alternatives are not exhaustive
Rationality is bounded
HOW TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTY ?
GAP!

12. GUNUNGSITOLI HOSPITAL, NIAS

13. GOAL OF ACEH AND NIAS RECOVERY WAS CLEARLY SET
After the humanitarian phase came the massive job of emergency reconstruction. The President decided to create a single agency to lead and manage the process – one of the best decisions that could ever have been taken. I was appointed to lead this agency. We call it BRR for short. Its core roles are to:
Restore livelihoods and strengthen communities
Facilitate and coordinate partner programs, and
Coordinate and implement government projects
Our mandate runs for four years to end April So we are just over half way through. The clock is ticking and we have a long way to go yet.
“…we will rebuild Aceh and Nias. And we will rebuild it back better.”
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
The President of Republic of Indonesia
This goal is elaborated as the guiding principles of both emergency relief and reconstruction periods

14. military operation for non-military purpose
DESPITE THE LONG-LASTING CONFLICT, PRESIDENT SBY TOOK RISK AND DECIDED TO “OPEN” ACEH
Biggest military operation for non-military purpose.
National support
International support
5.465
Volunteers
124
Medical team
11.800
Paramedical personnel
493
Heavy equipments
6.000
Military personnel 34
Countries
16.000
Personnel
117
Medical team 9
Mother ship 1
Floating hospital 14
War ship 31
Aircraft 82
Helicopter
Biggest
military operation for non-military purpose
In the last 50 years

15. THE DECISION RESULTED IN A GREATLY SUCCESSFUL RELIEF EFFORT WITH NO DEATH FROM STARVATION OR DISEASE

16. AFTER RELIEF, RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD FOLLOWS WITH HUGE FUNDS INVOLVED
6.1
AFTER RELIEF, RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD FOLLOWS WITH HUGE FUNDS INVOLVED
GLOBAL RESPONSE ON
2004 TSUNAMI*
Damage assessment
Build back
Pledged
Total Fund – Aceh and Nias
USD Billion
4.9
7.1
The largest international response to a natural disaster
The largest private response, but not the largest official response
The largest number of donors (state and private) and implementing agencies
The largest amount of aid per affected person
The fastest financial response to a disaster
Source: Tsunami Evaluation Coalition (TEC) Report 2006

17. PRINCIPLES OF ACCOUNTABILITY AND INTEGRITY ARE THE FOUNDATION OF TRUST
BRR Integrity Pact
BRR applies the integrity pact to all staffs, not only procurement related ones, and all its projects
Anti-corruption unit (SAK)
BRR is the first government agency to have an autonomous and independent anti- corruption unit
Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) office
At BRR request, KPK established its first representative office outside Jakarta in Banda Aceh
KPPN-K (treasury)
BRR is the only government agency in Indonesian history to have a dedicated KPPN (national treasury) representative office
Supervisory Board and Advisory Board
BRR ensures its effectiveness through the existence of autonomous Supervisory and Advisory Boards

18. 6.1
PERSISTENT EFFORT LEADS TO STRONG TRUST FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
Total Fund
USD Billion
93%
7.1
4.9
Damage assessment
Build back
Pledged
Committed

19. PRINCIPLE OF COMMUNITIES PARTICIPATION IS ENCOURAGED
In such a completely devastated area, where no single documentation on people’s property left behind, consensus building among the community is key. People discuss where the boundaries of their land were, where the new public facilities will be located, and eventually agree on a new village map. The map will then serve as the only basis for issuing official documentation like land certificate.
Village planning
~ community participation
at its best

20. Houses built 6 months later, but eventually the property market value
COMMUNITIES DECIDE IF THEIR AREA WILL BE REBUILT WITH NEW LAND CONSOLIDATION OR KEPT AS IT WAS
In some areas, we can see neighboring villages like this. The first one at the upper part of the picture chose to have houses built as soon as possible and did not want to do the consensus building first, rather they asked for houses built on the same spot as they were. The other village did the village mapping first and got their houses 6 months later than the neighbor. But as the village is more neat and has better facilities, making the first village to envy but that’s too late. As a matter of fact, eventually the market value of the property on the village below is higher by 2 or 3 times higher.
AS IT WAS
NEW LAND CONSOLIDATION
Houses built 6 months later,
but eventually the property market value
reaches 2-3 times higher

21. + NOW IMAGINE YOU MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS AS DOCTOR OR PSYCHOLOGIST
Uncertainties ~ Risks
Pre-Decision Making
Decision Making
Post-Decision Making
Decision goals and criteria
Relevant principles and values
Available information
Set of decision alternatives
Rational evaluation/ analysis
Judgment/ intuition
Consequences
Results +

22. PROGRESS HIGHLIGHTS IN PICTURES

23. THREE AND A HALF YEARS OF BUILDING BACK BETTER
Damage/Needs
(early estimates)
Progress
(as of July 2008)
New houses
120,000 unit
114,281 unit
Agricultural land
60,000 ha
96,819 ha
Road
3,000 km
2,596 km
Seaports 14 19
Airports/airstrips 11 12
Teachers
2,500 died
26,538 attended trainings
Schools
2,006 unit
1,090 unit
Health facilities
127 unit
810 unit
Religious facilities
3,183 unit
1,649 unit

24. TRAFFIC JAM IN BANDA ACEH

25. REVIVAL OF SMALL MEDIUM ENTERPRISES (SMEs)

26. GRAND HARVEST

27. PLANTATION PROGRAM FOR EX-COMBATANT TSUNAMI SURVIVORS

28. MALAHAYATI SEAPORT

29. OCEAN FISHING PORT – LAMPULO, BANDA ACEH

30. DAILY LIFE IN RELOCATION COMPLEX

31. TERIMA KASIH 谢谢. Danke. Thank you Gracias. شكرا . Tesekkürler
Merci. ありがとう. Dank u
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