2. HAS THE DOLLAR RALLY RUN ITS COURSE?

3. USD has fallen this month, particularly vs EM currencies

4. The turn began back in January

5. News is neither bad nor good enough to boost USD

6. Falling expectations of Fed tightening cause the move

7. The Fed has followed the market in lowering its forecasts

8. FOMC is still much more hawkish than the market

9. Oil prices seem to have found a bottom (for now?)

10. Sharp fall in US oil rigs portends fall in US oil output

11. Volatility has fallen & is falling (except in FX!)

12. Financial stress is back to where it was when Fed hiked

13. China growth is stabilizing, as are stocks & currency

14. US economic indicators are no longer disappointing

15. Can inflation accelerate w.out wage growth accelerating?

16. Surveys of US inflation expectations vs mkt measures

17. FOMC is still much more hawkish than the market

18. Presidential elections haven’t stopped Fed from hiking

19. EM, commodity currencies have been particularly strong

20. Money is flowing back into EM markets

21. CAD, AUD rallying despite adverse commodity moves

22. Specs have unwound half their long USD positions

23. Reversals aren’t unusual within long-term trends

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