1. SANDAG Inaccuracies
November 2017
Proprietary & Confidential

2. SoccerCity is More Mixed Use… Trips Using SANDAG Data Only
Using Civita to Estimate SoccerCity Traffic – SANDAG DATA ONLY
SoccerCity is More Mixed Use…
Trips Using SANDAG Data Only
The SANDAG estimated 170% increase is
provably incorrect
57%
…and 40% bigger
Can perfectly grow Civita to calculate SoccerCity trips – before transit and mixed use benefits. Proves inaccuracy of SANDAG model
Proprietary & Confidential

3. How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG –
Why is the model so wrong?
Almost every dial turned against us:
13% higher population of employed individuals than multi-family average and directly comparable property
IMPACT: More daily trips
44% higher job density for our site per SQF than surrounding comparable land uses
2/3 less walking from our site than surrounding areas, despite next door retail center and walking trail connecting the river
1/5 of the trolley use predicted by surrounding sites (and 1/3 of sites with a 10 minute walk to transit) notwithstanding 3 trolley stop access from our site
IMPACT: More daily trips
13% more single car usage at our site compared to SANDAG estimates at most comparable mixed use site – all coming out of 3 passenger car trips
How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG –
particularly now?
These changes amount to a substantial error in trip rates estimated by the model.
Again – this is SANDAG data vs. SANDAG estimates. SoccerCity treated differently
$200m stadium with premier viewing experience and flexible seating from 21,000 – 32,000
Proprietary & Confidential

4. Employment Density in Multi-Family Residents
Populations Are Assumed to Be Different – With What Basis?
Employment Density in Multi-Family Residents
Only 1.5 miles
61% of Residents Employed
54% of Residents Employed
Population unlikely to be so different over such a short distance in Mission Valley.
Again – this is SANDAG estimates vs. SANDAG estimates. SoccerCity treated differently
Proprietary & Confidential

5. Job Density Per SQF in SC Much Higher Than Surrounding Sites
Job Density Buildup – SANDAG Data
Job Density Comparison
Land Use
MGRA
Metric
Amount
Jobs
SC #
Implied Jobs
Office
6104
SQF
390,000
773
2,400,000
4,757 MF
6109
Units
190
4,800
Retail
6166
375,000
1191
740,000
2,350
Hotel
5856
Rooms
961
325
450
152
Park
2752
Acres 87 14
61.4 10
Total
7,269
SANDAG Assigned to SoccerCity
10,480
SANDAG output is 44% higher than expected from nearby sites
Parks – 45x Higher than Other Parks
MGRA
Park
MGRA Acres
Jobs
Jobs/Acre
2752
Morley Field 87 14
0.16
2756
101
0.00
2765
Balboa Park 84 1
0.01
22551
NTC Park 43
3576
Robb Field 63 3
0.05
3630
Mission Bay 99 41
0.41
3629
Mission Bay GC 71 7
0.10
Average 78 9
SoccerCity 61
290
4.72
vs. Average
45.1x
SANDAG assigned 44% more job density overall.
SANDAG assigned 45x the job density to SoccerCity Parks vs. their own data.
SANDAG assigned SoccerCity 32% of the number of employees in the entire City of San Diego Parks & Rec Department.
Proprietary & Confidential

6. SoccerCity has Trolley Station Onsite Trolley Use – SANDAG & MTS Data
Trolley Usage Significantly Low For SoccerCity
SoccerCity has Trolley Station Onsite
Trolley Use – SANDAG & MTS Data
SANDAG output is 78% lower than expected from nearby sites and MTS data
10 Min Walk
5 Min Walk
MTS Ridership Survey
Top 3 trolley use sites average a 9 minute walk from a station and 9% trolley usage.
Despite 100% of SoccerCity being within a 10 min walk of a station and 45% within a 5 min walk of a station, SANDAG assigned 3.6% trolley usage to SoccerCity, lower than sites on the other side of Friars Road.
Proprietary & Confidential

7. MV Office 9.9% MV Resi 8.2% SoccerCity 3.6%
SANDAG Estimates Higher Usage at Other MV Sites
Mission Valley Office
Mission Valley Residential
SoccerCity – Much Closer to Trolley
SANDAG Assumed Trolley Use
MV Office
9.9%
10 Min Walk
MV Resi
8.2%
5 Min Walk
SoccerCity
3.6%
Proprietary & Confidential

8. Nearby Sites – Much Higher Walk Splits
Walk Allocation for SoccerCity Well Below Mission Valley Sites
Nearby Sites – Much Higher Walk Splits
Walk %
Comp Avg = 14.5% SC 1 2 3 4
MGRA
Site
Use
Walk %
6168
River Run
Resi
15.0%
6180
Rio San Diego Plaza
Office
16.0%
6200
Rio Vista
Retail
12.7%
6184
Hazard Center
Mixed Use
14.5%
Average
SoccerCity
4.6%
SoccerCity was assigned a walk split of 4.6%, 69% lower than the average of a comparable set of sites in Mission Valley.
Even the storage tanks just north of SoccerCity have a higher walk split.
Proprietary & Confidential

9. Use Of Cars Assumed To Be Different – Again, With What Basis?
Auto Trips by Passenger Load – SoccerCity vs. Mixed Use Comp
1 Passenger (SOV)
2 Passenger (HOV2)
3+ Passenger (HOV3)
SANDAG output allocates 12% more trips to least efficient mode at the expense of most efficient mode
Land Use
SoccerCity
Hazard Center Redevelopment
Housing
YES
Office
Retail
Hotel
Park NO
When compared to a mixed-use development with similar land uses in the same area, SANDAG assigned 12% more trips to single passenger rides and 12% less trips to 3+ passenger rides, drastically increasing ADT.
Proprietary & Confidential

10. How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG –
Why Not Just Fix The Model? – Apparently Politics…
We have been trying. We have requested a significant amount of information to help inform SANDAG of errors in our model vs surrounding
Politics is now getting in the way – PER SANDAG’S OWN MODELLER
When asked why there will not be a separate technical meeting (to ensure accuracy), he responded “Politics have forced our hand”
How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG –
particularly now?
$200m stadium with premier viewing experience and flexible seating from 21,000 – 32,000
Proprietary & Confidential