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Koninklijke Philips N.V.

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Presentation on theme: "Koninklijke Philips N.V."— Presentation transcript:

1 Koninklijke Philips N.V.
Portfolio Report Koninklijke Philips N.V. General Electric Tony Sako Nikos Georgitsopoulos Ali Dehghan Saee Bastiaan Smit

2 Introduction Introduction and assumptions Philips & General Electric
Company Profile Risk & Return Ratio & Fundamental Analysis Credit Ratings & Analyst reports Optimal Risky & Combined Portfolio Conclusion & Recommendation

3 Company profile - Philips
Founded in 1891 by Gerard Philips and his father Frederik Headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands One of the largest electronics companies in the world Areas: Healthcare, Consumer Lifestyle and Lighting, Cardiac care, Energy efficiency, lighting applications Operates in approximately 100 countries

4 PEST Analysis - Philips
Political Global political conflicts could impact the international capital and credit markets All established subsidiaries are exposed to governmental regulations and unfavorable political developments Economic Global recession and economic downturn particularly in consumer markets has reduced the company’s financial figures Strong growth in energy-efficient lighting solutions resulted in a significant sales increase Social Highly influenced by social and demographic trends: growing demand for better healthcare at lower costs, consumer empowerment and the need for energy efficiency Various accusations related to labor rights Technological Severe competitive challenges: the speed of innovation, shortening product life cycles, fast-moving market trends and rapid technological change Experiences the need to continuously reduce costs, increase efficiency and enhance technologies

5 Company profile – General Electric
Founded in 1892 (merging of Edison General Electric company & Thomson-Houston Electric company) Headquartered in Connecticut, USA Areas: Appliances, Power and Water, Oil and Gas, Energy Management, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation and Capital Operating in over 100 countries and listed on the Dow index

6 PEST Analysis - General Electric
Political Dealing with political systems of different nations, increasing its political risk. Different countries provide different working conditions and tax systems which increases risk Economic Changes in rates of interest, exchange rates in different countries and greatly affects its financial performance Global recession and economic downturn particularly in consumer markets has reduced the company’s financial figures Social Highly influenced by social and demographic trends It may bears even more risk due to larger variety of products offered Technological The speed of innovation, shortening product life cycles, fast-moving market trends and rapid technological change A need to continuously reduce costs, increase efficiency and enhance technologies

7 Assumptions Risk aversion factor of 3.5
Monthly returns are normally distributed Risk-free rate of 4.0% The market information is derived from S&P500 (calculations rely on the Expected Return forecasted by S&P Analists

8 Historical Risk & Return (mth.) Analysis
Key Figures GE Philips Market Mean Return 0,67% 0,58% 0,56 Standard Deviation 7,64% 10,05% 4,38% Sharpe Ratio 0,044 0,025 0,0523 Beta 1,48 1,5 1 GE historical returns outperforming; Philips returns in line with market, despite higher beta Both stocks more volatile than the market (around twice) Phillips significantly more volatile Even though both stocks have about equal risk(beta), GE Sharpe ratio almost double that of Philips

9 Risk & Return Forward Analysis
Key Figures GE Philips Market Beta 1,48 1,5 1 Required Return (1-Year) 18,8% 19% - Expected return (1-Year) 14,9% 25,7% 14% Alpha -4,1% 6,7% Required returns nearly same, in line with similar betas 12-Month Expected returns for Philips significantly higher than for GE PHG to outperform - GE expected to underperform GE better track record but Philips better forecasts Past or future which to prioritize? Look to Optimal Portfolio for Quantitative Answer

10 Credit ratings Philips
Short-term P-2 rating “Stable outlook” Long-term Downgrade A3 to Baa1 “Weaker-than-expected operating performance through 2014” “Overall stable” Downgrade A to A- rating Recommendation 1 Mht 3 Mth Strong buy 1 Buy Hold Underperform Sell Stable A/A-2 rating “Stable rating”

11 Ratio analysis Philips
Liquidity ratios 2013 2014 Growth Current ratio 1,33 1,31 -0,3 Quick ratio 0,97 0,95 -0,2 Net working capital 2,825 2,853 28 Solvability ratios 2013 2014 Growth Total assets / debt capital 1,73 1,62 -0,12 Equity / total assets 0,42 0,38 -0,04 Equity / debt capital 0,73 0,62 -0,11 Profitability ratios 2013 2014 Growth Operating profit 8,7% 2,3% -6,0% Net income / equity 10,5% 3,8% -7,5% Net income / debt capital 11,0% 1,1% -10% Net income / total assets 6,4% 0,7% -0,06

12 Credit ratings GE Both long- and short term
Downgrade A1 to Aa3 “Consequent of announced plans to sell $200 billion of ending net investment in GE Capital Rating outlook remains stable “Overall stable” Downgrade A to A- rating Recommendation 1 Mht 3 Mth Strong buy 5 Buy 4 Hold 8 9 Underperform Sell Stable AA+ credit rating “Stable rating”

13 Ratio analysis GE Liquidity ratios 2013 2014 Growth Solvability ratios
Current ratio 5,15 1,33 -3,82 Quick ratio 4,94 0,97 -3,97 Net working capital 340 324 -16,00 Solvability ratios 2013 2014 Growth Total assets / debt capital 1,66 -0,01 Equity / total assets 0,20 -0,00 Equity / debt capital 0,33 Profitability ratios 2013 2014 Growth Operating profit 18,0% 0,00 Net income / equity 10,0% 11,9% 0,02 Net income / debt capital 4,1% 4,4% 0,03 Net income / total assets 2,5% 2,7%

14 Optimal Risky Portfolio
Weight GE Weight PHG Optimal Portfolio 89,9% 10,1% Minimum Variance 74,1% 25,9% Optimal/Tangency Portfolio Heavily Weighted GE Minimum Variance Portfolio Includes more of PHG

15 Optimal risky & Combined portfolio
Weight Risk-free Weight Risky Portfolio Stock Weights Risky Portfolio Combined Portfolio 80,7% 19,3% GE = 17.35% PHG = 1.96%

16 Conclusion Comparison GE Philips Optimal P Combined P S&P500
Risk-free Rate 0,0033 Mean Return 0,0067 0,0058 0,0070 0,0044 0,0056 Std. Deviation 0,0764 0,1005 0,0739 0,0143 0,0438 Sharpe ratio 0,0442 0,0253 0,0500 0,0802 0,0523 Individually Stocks with some deficiencies GE good risk-return profile but expected underperformance PHG poor risk-return profile and minimal coverage but promising prospects Optimal Portfolio Better risk-return profile than individual stocks Better returns than market Combined Portfolio Lowest Risk & Best Sharpe Ratio Can be tailored according to individual risk preferences

17 Questions


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