1. Research Issues

2. Why compare? Better understand our own system
See what other options are available
Understand why certain choices were and are made
Understand causation

3. Empirical vs. Theoretical
Empirical World
Theoretical World
Facts
Events
Descriptive histories
Idiosyncratic (singular event)
Simplifies reality
Generalize (Nomothetic)
Identify regularities
Speculate on the meaning of events

4. Types of statements in PoliSci
Empirical (fact) [IS]: Clinton won in 1996
Normative (value) [GOOD]: Democracy is the best form of government
Theoretical (explanation) [WHY]: USA beat USSR BECAUSE of its economy

5. 4 C’s of Political Analysis
Concepts
Comparison
Correlations
Causation

6. PoliSci Methodologies
Case Study
Quantitative (Statistics)
Formal Modeling
Game Theory

7. Avoiding descriptivism
A problem in case studies, especially for anthropology (see Clifford Geertz, The Slametan, a Javanese ritual [1964])
Your study should apply broadly within your scope conditions
You should inform other possible studies
Structured-Functional Case Study

8. Quantitative Issues
Sampling Errors – the sample is not reflective of the population due to bias in selection. Not all polls are scientific.
Non-response – response rates may vary
Non-attitudes – an attitude is reported to expedite the questioning
Degrees of freedom (n-1)
Margin of error

9. Margin of Error
The margin of error is an estimate of a poll's variance in reported percentages if the same poll were taken multiple times. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one has that the poll's reported percentages are close to the "true" percentages, that is the percentages in the whole population.
For 95% confidence,

10. Game Theory: Prisoner’s Dilemma
Prisoner B Stays Silent
Prisoner B Betrays
Prisoner A Stays Silent
Both serve six months
Prisoner A serves ten years Prisoner B goes free
Prisoner A Betrays
Prisoner A goes free Prisoner B serves ten years
Both serve two years

11. Variables
Independent (cause)
Dependent (effect)
Intervening
Spurious

12. Conditions
Necessary – sine qua non: the event could not happen without this condition being met
Sufficient – if this condition is met, the event must occur

13. Scientific Method Four steps:
1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena.
2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation.
3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations.
4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.

14. One needs Falsifiability Prediction Control Replicability
Clear conceptual and operational definitions
To Address several other issues:

15. Issues Co-variation (do x and y just happen to correlate)
Plausible alternative hypotheses
Time-order relationships (What came first?)

16. In Comparative another issue is:
Does the concept or term mean the same thing in all relevant cases?
Consider:
Human rights
Democracy
Liberalism
Political parties

17. One should avoid
Tautologies – statements true by definition, a fact giving nothing new
Circular arguments
Straw men
Selection on the dependent variable
Excessive flexibility in definition

18. Karl Popper on Falsifiability
It is easy to confirm or verify nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations.
Confirmations are significant only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is, if, unenlightened by the theory, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory.
A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory.
Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify or refute it. Theories that take greater "risks" are more testable, more exposed to refutation.
Confirming or corroborating evidence is only significant when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; "genuine" in this case means that it comes out of a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory.

19. Experiments and Controls
How to do with real, living people?
How can we attempt this with states and nations?

20. Political Science The systematic study of Politics
Politics – focused on the role of power, its distribution and application
Power – the ability to make someone do something s/he otherwise would not
Coercive
Persuasive
Institutional authority (acquiescence)
Class

21. Disaggregations of Power
Visibility
Manifest – overt with resistance and open conflict
Implicit – opposition does not rise up against overwhelming establishment power
Location
Dispersed – limited govt., resistant to rapid social change (Veto Points)
Concentrated – absolutism , social revolution
Source and Use
Intensive – increase of effort
Extensive - broaden the scope