1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook 2017/18
June 12, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Ag Productivity and Usage
Using corn as an example
Source: USDA

3. Ag Prices
Using corn as an example
Source: USDA

4. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA

5. Farm Debt
Source: Federal Reserve

6. Ag Economic Summary
Agricultural production and consumption has grown rapidly over the past several years.
But when production exceeds consumption, prices fall.
Crop revenues peaked in , while livestock revenues crested in , leading to record farm incomes.
Since then net farm income has been cut in half.
While the percentage loss in substantial, net farm income remains above levels from the early 2000’s.
Farmers and ranchers have partially compensated for the loss in income by taking on higher debt loads.
Farm and ranch balance sheets are eroding and financial stress is building for some producers, but the financial issues are not as severe as during the 1980’s.
If agricultural prices slowly improve (as projected), the squeeze on farm finances will improve as well. But for some producers, the squeeze may be too much.

7. AVERAGE VALUES
all farmland 1941−2016
$7,183
As of
Nov. 16
-5.9%

8. A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis?
Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70,
Zhang and Beek (2016)
Farm Policy Journal

9. President’s Budget Request
Source: OMB, 2018 Budget

10. USDA’s Budget
Source: USDA 2017 Budget

11. Proposed Adjustments in Farm Policy
Source: OMB, 2018 Budget

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. U.S. Meat Trade
Million pounds
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

16. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,295
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,410
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,500
5,425
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,450
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,470
1,500
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,875
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,645
14,300
Ending Stocks
2,110
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.35
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
89.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,255
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
450
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,730
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,910
1,950
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
118
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
2,150
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,078
4,235
Ending Stocks
495
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.55
9.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

18. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 18 18

19. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Corn Grind for Ethanol

23. Current Corn Futures
4.16
4.06
3.51
Source: CME Group, 6/9/2017

24. Current Soybean Futures
9.50
9.37
9.35
Source: CME Group, 6/9/2017

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: