1. Webinar Microsoft Windows Evolves From Dominance To Contender
Frank E. Gillett, Vice President, Principal Analyst
October 19, Call in at 10:55 a.m. Eastern time
Please tweet us your questions:
#ForrWin8

2. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

3. Personal computing market forces
TWO BIG TRANSFORMATIONS OF PERSONAL COMPUTING ARE UNDERWAY
From PC-only to multiple personal device types
From device-centric to service- centric

4. To understand how the market is evolving, Forrester sized and forecasted global personal device sales
Device segmentation
Form factor: PCs, smartphones, tablets OS
Vendor
Purchase and usage segmentation
Pure consumer
BYOD
Enterprise
Purchaser and user demographics
Vertical
Region
Country: 62-country Forrester taxonomy
All demographic capabilities of Forrsights and Global Consumer Technographics®
For more information on our Forrsights Workforce Employee Survey, Q and Forrsights Hardware Survey, Q3 2011, check out Forrester’s Forrsights home page:

5. Microsoft holds dominant share of PCs
*Forrester forecast
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

6. But a small share of smartphones, now the largest segment of personal devices
*Forrester forecast
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

7. Effectively no share, so far, in tablets, the fastest-growing segment of personal devices
*Forrester forecast
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

8. Microsoft Windows’ units will continue to grow, but so will the rest of the market
*Forrester forecast
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

9. Microsoft Windows’ share of all personal devices has shrunk to 30% and stabilizes through 2016
*Forrester forecast
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

10. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

11. Microsoft is boldly transforming the Windows ecosystem
Creating a cohesive touch-native Windows 8 UX across PCs, tablets, and smartphones
Building a new programming mode for client-side apps
Rolling out a new app store software distribution model that upends existing distribution
Adding support for mobile capable ARM CPUs in addition to x86
Designing and selling two Microsoft-branded tablets that compete with partner OEMs
Using Microsoft account to create a consistent Microsoft personal cloud-service experience

12. Microsoft’s Windows transformation correctly addresses many market developments
New mobile device types beyond the PC
New user interactions in touch, voice, and gesture
Broadening use cases — quick, casual, and in context
Stagnant PC sales yet growing Mac sales
New app distribution and deployment models
New SaaS ISVs and apps supplanting traditional ISVs and software suites
New programming languages and mobile development approaches

13. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

14. It will take time for Microsoft to work through the Windows 8 transition
The choice of four CPU architectures will confuse and slow tablet and laptop uptake.
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

15. It will take time for Microsoft to work through the Windows 8 transition (cont.)
The choice of four CPU architectures will confuse and slow tablet and laptop uptake.
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

16. It will take time for Microsoft to work through the Windows 8 transition (cont.)
The choice of four CPU architectures will confuse and slow tablet and laptop uptake.
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

17. It will take time for Microsoft to work through the Windows 8 transition (cont.)
The choice of four CPU architectures will confuse and slow tablet and laptop uptake.
Tablet and touch buyers will like the Windows 8 UX, but many buyers will be put off by it.
Customers will be confused by an inconsistent input experience across different hardware.
It will take a year for ISVs to fully stock the Windows Store with a range of apps.
Microsoft will struggle to communicate the richness and complexity of Windows 8 at launch.

18. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

19. After a slow launch year, Windows 8 will take hold in 2014
ISVs take a year to work through the new UX and Windows Store models.
Windows hardware makers prepare a new round of hardware for fall of 2013.
Consumers initially jump for tablets and then slow up adoption to digest all the changes.
Enterprises will simply wait on Windows 8 other than trials with tablets.

20. No platform vendor will dominate across personal device categories in 2016
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

21. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

22. In a heterogeneous device market, success metrics shift to services
We’ll be tracking new metrics, including:
Engagement with online accounts.
Stored-payment methods.
Revenue and profit per user for the platform vendor and for the ecosystem overall.

23. Microsoft has a large number of user accounts, which could help it preserve OS share
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

24. Amazon and Apple have a huge lead on US credit cards on file over Microsoft and others
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

25. Amazon’s and Apple’s US customers are less likely to have cards on file with others
Source: October 22, 2012, “Windows: The Next Five Years,” Forrester report

26. Agenda How is client computing being transformed?
How is Microsoft evolving Windows in response?
What are the challenges for Windows stakeholders?
How will Microsoft’s Windows migration play out?
How will we measure platform success in future?
How will the future of Windows unfold?

27. Windows 8 is simply the first step in an ongoing transformation
Microsoft will move to update Windows annually with Windows 9 arriving by 2014.
Fork Windows into a desktop-only version and a pure new Windows version.
Expand Microsoft brand hardware offerings while partnering with a handful of premium OEMs.
Struggle to win emerging market consumers.
Fully untether Office from Windows.

28. Frank E. Gillett