1. Holding an election
Elections have been called the “only poll that matters” since they decide who will hold power—and the people’s approval or rejection of stands or policies
Victorious candidates often claim a mandate (endorsement by a majority of the public) for their campaign proposals
FLAW: voters make their choices for a variety of reasons, and a candidate may win even though a majority did not like their proposals
Positions of candidates and parties are often broad and general
FLAW: non-voters may constitute a majority of the population, and their preferences weren’t registered by the election

2. Canvassing interest groups
Definition: private organizations whose members share certain views and objectives and who work to shape the making and content of public policy
Pressure groups
Special interest groups
Claim to represent the desires of large numbers of people
Present their views through lobbyists, letters, telephone calls, s, and political campaigns
FLAW: they may misrepresent the size of their constituencies
FLAW: they do not reflect the intensity of their constituencies

3. The media Print media – books, pamphlets, newspapers, etc.
Broadcast media – radio and television talk shows, internet “blogs,” etc.
FLAW: very vocal minorities may dominate the debate while a “silent majority” is ignored
FLAW: media may attempt to mold public opinion more than represent it
It is not correct that the media tell the people what to think; but it is clear that they tell the people what to think about.

4. Personal contacts
Elected officials typically come into contact with many of their constituents personally or through letters, s, and telephone calls
FLAW: one person would have great difficulty in getting a full picture—plus, they may only find what they want to find

5. Public opinion polls

6. Straw vote
An early form of polling, the straw vote, was not very scientific
Literary Digest received approximately 2.4 million responses to its presidential poll, and incorrectly predicted a Republican victory (1936)
The sample was drawn from car registrations and telephone directories—dominated by wealthier Americans during the Depression
Their huge sample severely underrepresented the poor and working class voters that favored Democrats
Still popular, but are now used more for entertainment than anything else
Prior to the 1930s, most polls attempted to gauge public opinion only by asking large numbers of people—very large samples often fail to provide a good cross-selection of the population

7. Scientific polling
Uses sophisticated methods to guarantee the greatest possible degree of accuracy
Scientific polling replaces the quantity of straw vote responses with the quality of its own
Today there are more than 1,000 national and regional polling organizations
Most of these do commercial work (test marketing products, etc.)
Approximately 200 of these also do political work
Among the best known are the Gallup Poll and Pew Research Center for People and Press

8. The polling process 1. Defining the Universe 2. Constructing a Sample
The universe is a term that means the whole population that the poll aims to measure.
2. Constructing a Sample
A sample is a representative slice of the total universe.
Most professional pollsters draw a random sample, also called a probability sample.
A quota sample is one that is deliberately constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of a given universe.
3. Preparing Valid Questions
The way in which questions are worded is very important. Wording can affect the reliability of any poll.
4. Interviewing
Pollsters communicate with the sample respondents using various methods including person-to-person interviews, telephone calls, and mail surveys.
5. Reporting
Pollsters use computers to store and manipulate data, which helps them analyze and report the results of the poll.

9. Evaluating Polls
Most polls are fairly reliable, but several problems are known to exist
Pollsters have difficulty measuring the intensity, stability, and relevance of opinions
Intensity – How strong is the opinion?
Stability/fluidity – How permanent is the opinion?
Salience – How important/relevant is that opinion to the person who holds it?
Latency: Political opinions that exist but have not been fully expressed
Critics claim that polling creates a “bandwagon” effect – some undecided voters simply decide to support whoever seems to be winning

10. SALIENCE COMPLEXITY LOW HIGH LOW HIGH Traffic lights
(lower levels of government)
Social/Moral issues
(Gay marriage, marijuana, death penalty)
Energy Policy/Nuclear Regulations
Banking regulations after 2008
LOW
HIGH
Salience—how much people pay attention/care about a topic
Complexity—how easy or difficult it is to understand the topic

11. Limits on the Impact of Public Opinion
Public opinion is the major, but by no means the only, influence on public policy in this country.
Much of the American political system is designed to protect minority interests against the excesses of majority views and actions.
Finally, polls are not elections,
nor are they substitutes for elections.

12. Discussion of likert results
Period 2 Results (out of 50 possible points)
Mean: Highest:45
Median: 34 Lowest:22
Mode: 37 Range: 23
Period 4 Results
Mean: Highest: 41
Median: Lowest:14
Mode: 30, 36 Range: 27
Period 7 Results
Mean: Highest: 42
Median: 30 Lowest: 12
Mode: 32 Range: 30
2- positive
4- positive
7- positive