1. A user-friendly front-end for Eviews- based macro-structural models
MFMSA:
A user-friendly front-end for Eviews- based macro-structural models
Andrew Burns
World Bank
October 4, a

2. World Bank Modelling Environment
World bank uses a wide range of models
Global models
MFMod Macrostructural model used for forecasting and simulation
Dynamic recursive CGE models (Envisage III; Manage)
Country specific models
Usually adapted and customized from global models
MFMod (Macro-Fiscal model) built specifically to allow collaborative forecasting with and easy-to-use interface
MFModSA (MFMod Stand Alone) adapted from MFMod
Easy-to-use front end for forecasting and simple simulation
Access to Eviews object module for more complicated work and reporting
Highly customizable

3. The modelling challenge at the World Bank
Need to forecast 180+ countries 4 times a year
Significant country expertise embedded in 300+ country economists the vast majority of whom are field based
Disparate modelling skills within country-economist community

4. Solution – MFMod internet-based model
Produce a low-cost, easy-to-use forecasting system that can be used by economists with different technical backgrounds sitting in locations
Both a global model and 180+ country models
Country models can be solved independently of global model, using isimulate collaborative forecasting platform (isimulate.worldbank.org)

5. Limitations of MFMod system
Country models are, of necessarily, partially standardized
Share common structure and functional forms, with parameters estimated to fit country data
Some 40 different variants (oil exporting; fixed exchange rate economies; economies with and without production accounts etc.)
Lack institutional / fiscal detail that a fully-blown customized country model would have
Separate accounting of major commodity sector (other than oil)
Detailed mapping of country-specific fiscal features
Limited ability to customize equations, functional forms etc

6. MFMod Stand Alone
Combines benefits of MFMod system but allows for the customization that main internal bank-wide system lacks
COM-based Excel / EViews implementation of MFMod user interface
Highly customizable (layout, reports) model content
Main vocation is to run a single country model, typically a customized version of the internet-based MFMod – with additional fiscal and sectoral detail and or longer time period (but platform is agnostic on model / use)

7. Principle advantages of MFMod SA
Highly Customizable
Increased fiscal, structural, financial detail to meet client needs
Annual, Quarterly or Monthly models
One or two “model Mechanics” can be trained to maintain, modify and customize
Easy-to-operate
Model drivers do not need “modeler skills”
Interface allows a flexible interaction with model without any programming
Ability to save and compare multiple scenarios
Easy access to EViews back end to prepare customized reports (very powerful)
Flexibility means unlimited potential uses
Forecasting
Medium-term budgetary analysis
Tax policy analysis
External shocks
Alternative policy scenarios
Complex mixture of excel, .NET, MySQL, PHP, and EViews code
Excel and .NET manage the user interface,
MYSQL and PHP, a middle-ware, which interprets inputs from excel and writes eviews scripts reflecting user inputs
Middleware module looks after record keeping, and allows for user to go backwards and forwards through the simulation history (random access Undo / Redo functionality)
model is written and solves in eviews

8. Interface hides the model
MFModSA uses excel as front-end with EViews operating as solution engine
EViews and Excel
Middleware controls
Dot net
User with excel front-end
Excelified changes
Excelified results
EViews Code
EViews description of simulation
Results of EViews simul

9. Middleware manages user’s interactions with EViews model
MFMod SA
EViews back end
Excel front end
Middleware
Writes and executes Eviews simulation based on Excel inputs
Returns results and allows visualization/ comparison of results
All data are stored and calculations done in EViews

10. A clean and consistent interface

11. Clean and consistent interface
Model is broken up into economically meaningful sheets / blocks

12. Clean and consistent interface
Endogenous
Exogenous
Identity (closure rule)
Historical Data
distinguishes Color coding between qualities of variables

13. Clean and consistent interface
Data display can be changed from growth rates, levels % GDP, or contribution to growth by selecting from the drop down

14. Clean and consistent interface
The change Display mode button changes the representation of all the series on the sheet

15. Model suggestion in black
The display options
Equation triplet
User in red
Model suggestion in black
Add-factor in blue

16. The display options: Viewing equations
Right click on variable name and select View equation

17. The model is operated via the menu1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Load the EViews work file
Save the EViews work file
Solve the model
Make model endogenous or exogenous – controls the sheets
Display variables in levels, growth rates, ratios or contribution to GDP
Compare policy shocks or alternative forecasts
Set the model parameters
Set type of growth rate for quarterly models
About and news on the standalone
A help file for specific issues