1. Ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇ ｔｈｅ Ｍｏｎｓｔｅｒ：Ｔｙｐｈｏｏｎ
Ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇ　ｔｈｅ　Ｍｏｎｓｔｅｒ：Ｔｙｐｈｏｏｎ
４０４４１００９１劉濟實、４０２４１０１０２劉遠德
Department of Computer Science, Chung Ching University
Introduction
Typhoon, a common natural disaster that appears since the beginning of may until the beginning of September or even later, usually costs a huge amount of damage to Taiwan; therefore, developing a precise forecasting system, whether from the aspect of the path or the intensity of the rain and wind can help us prevent the devastating destruction of typhoon. We try to use some simple ways with easy statistics, trying to predict the factors we spoke above.
Paths of typhoon
Results
In this experiment, we consider four factors to evaluate the probable casualties, the four relationships between:
Numbers of typhoon and rainfall
Typhoon’s intensity and rainfall
Pressure of typhoon’s center and rainfall
Typhoon’s path and rainfall
We can see that the main problem that causes the destruction of typhoon is “rainfall”. The magnitude of the wind is also an important factor, but the main reason is still the amount of rainfall. We pick some parts of Taiwan, use R to analyze the
Figure 3. The six figures above are the six places we picked from the website of the government, these six places can roughly represent the four areas of Taiwan. We list the number of typhoon for each month on x-axis, and match their rainfall on the y-axis, calculate the correlation.
How the intensity of typhoon affects rainfall
Figure 1. Taiwan is covered by the typhoon so we could barely see it.
Materials and methods
There are many tools we can use to analyze all kinds of data we get collect, here, we use a program language call “R” language and “Microsoft Excel”, to download and analyze the data we obtain from the internet.
Conclusions
There are many data we can obtain from the past, and most of the time we can get useful information for it to forecast the typhoon we are facing at the very moment. If we can make good use of the information we have, we can minimize the cost of the typhoon by making the right decision. For example, if we know the path of the typhoon , we can also predict the rainfall, then to decide what to do for prevention. This is why information gathering is so important for us, to know what will happen, we can take precaution against it as soon as possible.
Figure 5. The two figures are the path and rainfall relationship graph, we can see that path 7 has the most rain, so whenever a typhoon like this appear, we must be more careful.
Figure 3. The two figures above, the one on the left represents the wind intensity of typhoon, the right one represents rainfall. We collect the data of Taiwan and make it into a distribution graph and can easily compare them. So the there is a slight relationship between wind and rain fall.
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Figure 4. This is the figure we we turn into from figure 3, every typhoon we match their wind intensity and rainfall to this chart. Most of them are on the lower left corner.(x-axis rainfall, y-axis wind speed of typhoon center)
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Data Source
Figure 2. These two are the interfaces of R language and Excel, we use R language to download data and organize with Excel, then use the organized data will be analyzed again with R language. It can been shown in various kinds of graph.
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