1. Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum
Linda Lee
Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum

2. Vice Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum
Christian Zarif
Vice Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum

3. Housing and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph. D
Housing and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation in Washington, D.C. May 12, 2016

4. Existing Home Sales – Moderate Recovery

5. National Pending Sales Index – Good Signs (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: NAR

6. Regional Pending Contracts (% change from one year ago to March)

7. Regional Median Price Change (3-year price change from 2012 to 2015)

8. Housing Affordability Income GAP at 3.8% Mortgage Rate

9. Housing Affordability Income GAP at 6% Mortgage Rate

10. Very Cyclical Vacation Home Sales (50% Decline and 100% increase)

11. New Home Sales – Still Super Low (75% Decline and 60% gain)

12. Single-family Housing Starts – Grossly Inadequate
Thousand units

13. Rising Share of Pricey New Homes

14. New Home Price vs. Existing Home Price

15. Low Inventory Months Supply

16. U.S. Population

17. Even Lower Inventory in relation to Households

18. Multifamily Housing Starts – Sufficiently Adequate

19. Rental Vacancy Rate – Low but Stabilizing

20. Big Driver of Future Inflation Rents Rising at 7-year high

21. No CPI Inflation – Yet, But Higher Future Inflation with Nudge Rates Higher

22. Relief on Rent?
If higher rent then higher inflation and higher mortgage rates
If lower rent than lower inflation and steady mortgage rates

23. Widening Metro Home Prices (640% vs. 241% growth from 1980)

24. San Francisco Area Outmigration
47,894 out of SF County
37,378 out of San Mateo County
73,925 out of Santa Clara County
71,551 out of Alameda County
Seattle
Portland
Boise
Salt Lake City
Denver
Austin
Raleigh

25. Widening Jobs Mobile and Charleston SC

26. Boeing Airplane Made In Charleston

27. Widening Jobs Nashville and Memphis

28. Widening Jobs Grand Rapids and Flint

29. Jobs (8 million lost … 14 million gained)
In thousands

30. Top and Bottom States for Jobs
The Best
% Gain in 12 months
Idaho
3.8
Utah
3.5
Nevada
3.4
Florida
3.0
Washington
California
2.9
South Carolina
Oregon
2.7
Arizona
2.3
The Worst
% Gain in 12 months
Wyoming
0.2
Oklahoma
0.1
Louisiana
-0.4
West Virginia
-1.8
North Dakota
-2.0

31. State Level Employment

32. Home Buyer Traffic

33. Jobs in North Dakota
In thousands

34. Jobs in Puerto Rico
In thousands

35. Who’s On Deck after Puerto Rico?
States (worst and best)
Unfunded Liability %
Illinois
57%
Kentucky
50%
Connecticut
47%
Louisiana
44%
New Hampshire
43%
Tennessee 8%
North Carolina 5%
South Dakota 4%
Washington 2%
Wisconsin 0%

36. Biggest Lies Occur …
After Fishing
During a War
Before an Election

37. Federal Debt … Cumulative ( $ million; debt held by public excluding intra-governmental holdings)

38. Quantitative Easing

39. Negative Interest Rates … Good-Bye Ben?

40. Healthier Homeowners

41. Borrowers Not Defaulting – Especially Veterans (Serious Delinquency Rate)

42. Rising Housing Wealth
$ billion

43. Mortgage Rates Say Today’s HomeBuyers Are Luckiest in a Generation%

44. But Unluckiest in becoming Homeowners%

45. Student Loan … NAR-ASA Study implies 5 year Delay (in $billion)

46. Homeownership Particularly Low for Minority Households%

47. Homeownership Particularly Low for Minority Households%

48. Tuition Costs At Harvard?

49. Forecast

50. Economic Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Forecast 2017 GDP Growth 2.6% 2.1%
1.6%
2.2%
Job Growth
+3.0 million
+2.6 million
+1.6 million
+2.2 million
CPI Inflation
0.3%
1.7%
3.0%
10-year Treasury
2.8%

51. Housing Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Forecast 2017 New Home Sales 437,000
500,000
540,000
600,000
Existing Home Sales
4.9 million
5.3 million
5.4 million
5.5 million
Median Price Growth
+ 5.7%
+ 6.8%
+4.5%
3.2%
30-year Rate
4.2%
3.9%
4.6%

52. REALTOR® Membership

53. 2016 Presidential Election Strong Feelings, for and Against

54. Polls: People do not like Trump or Clinton
Polls: People do not like Trump or Clinton! Say No To Democracy and Yes to Private Property Rights?
Singapore -
Had no Democracy
Higher per capita income than U.S.
Futuristic city
English: official language
Strong private property rights protection

55. REALTORS® BELIEVE in Democracy and Property Rights

56. The Honorable Elizabeth Warren
Senator, (D – Massachusetts)