1. Indian Oil Scenario
Presented by
Mr. Atul Chaturvedi

2. Indian Oilseed Sector 2016-17 (At a Glance)
Area Under Oilseed Cultivation
28.2 Million Hectare
Average Yield
960 kg
Output of 9 Cultivated Oilseeds*
27.1 Million Ton
Output of Cottonseed & Copra*
11.5 Million Ton
Total
38.6 Million Ton
Production of Oilcake/Meal
27.4 Million Ton
Production Edible & Non-edible Veg. Oils
7.6 Million Ton
Demand of Veg. Oils (Edible)
22.0 Million Ton
Import of Veg. Oil (Edible)
15.0 Million Ton
Per capita consumption(approx)
17 Kg
The Overall turn over of the oilseed sector is Rs.175,000 Crores (28 Billion) and on import front, its 3rd item after Crude Petroleum and Gold. India spending over Rs.70,000 crores (11/12 bln.$) for import of edible oils per annum and dependence on import is nearly 70%.
* Trade Estimates

3. Oilseeds Production (Trade Estimate) (2012-13 to 2016-17)
Major Oilseeds
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
Groundnut
4.3
6.5
4.9
4.5
6.9
Rape/Mustard
6.7
5.1
5.9
7.2
Soybean
10.7
9.5
8.5
10.6
Others
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.4
Sub-Total
24.7
25.3
21.1
20.3
27.1
Cottonseed
10.2
12.5
11.9
10.9
Copra
0.6
0.7
Grand Total
35.5
38.5
33.6
31.8
38.6
Source: SEA
Note :
Government estimate for major nine oilseeds is higher than trade estimate
Stagnant Oilseed Production. Soya and Mustard languishing
Groundnut should not be considered an Oilseed.
Oilseed production increase has not kept pace with increase in consumption.

4. Estimates for oilseed Production 2016-17 Vs 2017-18
Production in Million tons
Change in %
Groundnut
6.9
6.6
(-) 4.3
Soybean
10.6
9.0
(-) 15.09
Rape Mustard
7.2
7.0
(-) 2.7
Others
2.4
2.5
(+) 4.1
Total
27.1
25.1
(-) 7.3
Cottonseed
10.9
12.4
(+) 13.7
Copra
0.6
38.6
38.1
(-) 1.3
Bumper Cotton crop has cushioned the shortfall of Soya and Groundnut.
Cottonseed is now emerging as India’s top oilseed. Soya, Groundnut loosing ground.

5. Domestic Oil Availability 2016-17 Vs 2017-18
Groundnut oil
5.70
Soya
14.4
Rape Mustard
18.7
Cotton
12.4
13.2
Rice Bran
9.6
10.0
Others
9.7
8.5
Total
70.5
The source of the above data is Govind Bhai and his GGN-research.
Govind Bhai anticipates increase of 6.10 lakhs MB of domestic oil on account of large carryout.
We feel crushing may remain lukewarm and carryout is becoming a norm.
We feel oil availability domestically may remain same.

6. Edible Oil Consumption in India (Oil wise)
Particulars
Qty %
Palm Oil
2944
29.08
4437
35.81
9685
45.41
Soy Oil
2258
22.30
2170
17.51
4872
22.84
Mustard Oil
1721
17.00
1814
14.64
1938
9.09
Sunflower Oil
309
3.05
539
4.35
1541
7.22
Cotton Oil
443
4.38
1070
8.64
1267
5.94
Groundnut Oil
1216
12.01
689
5.56
239
1.12
RBO
430
4.25
770
6.21
930
4.36
Others
804
7.94
901
7.27
858
4.02
Total
10125
100%
12390
21330
Consumption has grown from 10Mln to 22Mln in 16 yrs.( 120%)
Domestic oils now constitute only 30% of total consumption.
Consumption of Palm oil in India is now nearly 45% of the total consumption followed by Soybean oil and Rapeseed Oil.

7. Per capita consumption of edible oil in India vs. World
S. No
Year
India
World 1
11.1
18.95 2
13.3
24.54 3 17 25
Rising income levels and cheap imports have helped increase per capita consumption.
Indian Growth story is very much intact and our demand will keep growing.

8. Import Break-Up (MMT) Oils 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Palm (Edible) 9.54
8.44
8.9
Soybean Oil
2.99
4.23
4.0
Sun Oil
1.54
1.52
1.80
Rapeseed Oil
0.35
0.38
0.30
Sunflower Oil -
0.01(--)
Total
14.42
14.57
15.0
Palm constitutes biggest slice of oil import followed by Soya and Sun.
Incremental imports in last few years have been cornered by Soft Oils
Sunflower Oil imports may rise on account of duty advantage
Imports may rise by one million tons per annum

9. Import Projection 2017-18 Import may go up by 0.8 to 1.0 million tons.
Oilseed
Projection (Million Tons)
Palm
9.50
Soya
4.0
Sunflower
2.0
Rapeseed
0.30
Total
15.8
Import may go up by 0.8 to 1.0 million tons.
We project consumption growth at around 4%.
Sunflower and Palm may gain while Soya may remain unchanged in volumes.

10. Indian Consumption Growth Expectations
Year
Population
@ 1.76%
Growth
Consumption
@ 3% Growth
@ 4% Growth
@ 5% Growth
In Bn.
Per Capita
(In Kg)
MnT
2015
1.25
15.2
19.00
15.6
19.5
15.9
19.87
2017
1.28
16.0
20.48
17.0
21.75
17.4
22.27
2019
1.31
18.0
23.58
19.1
25.02
2021
1.34
23.79
25.70
21.0
27.72
2023
1.38
19.0
25.24
21.1
27.80
23.2
30.56
2025
1.42
20.2
26.78
22.8
30.0
25.6
33.69
Assuming 4% growth we may require 30MMT by 2025.
Import s can rise to million ton if oilseed production stagnates.
Edible Oil security in danger.

11. What needs to be done ?
Land consolidation through leasing and Corporate farming
Allow GM cultivation
Encourage Mustard & Soya Cultivation
Support Producer instead of Consumer
Bury Essential Commodities Act.
Encourage Palm cultivation in South India

12. Thank You