1. Vigo County School Corporation, IN Demographic Study December 11, 2017
McKibben Demographic Research Jerome McKibben, Ph.D. Rock Hill, SC

2. Assumptions
The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter)
Interest rates have reached a historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.0%;
The rate of mortgage approval stays at levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices;
There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers;
The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the average of Vigo County for any year in the forecasts;
All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by All housing units constructed are occupied by 2027;

3. Assumptions
The unemployment rates for the Vigo County and the Terre Haute Metropolitan Area will remain below 7.0% for the 10 years of the forecasts;
The rate of students transferring into and out of the Vigo County School Corporation will remain at the level for the next 10 years;
The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;
There will be no building moratorium within any of the five districts over the next 10 years;
There are no changes in the state guidelines regarding school vouchers and/or inter district transfers;
Businesses within the district and the Vigo County area will remain viable;

4. Assumptions
The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year;
Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60;
Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant;
The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the average for Vigo County;

5. Vigo County School Corporation Total Population – 2010 Census

6. Vigo County School Corporation Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

7. Riley Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

8. Dixie Bee Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

9. Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

10. Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

11. Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

12. Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census

13. Table 7: Comparison of District Resident Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age,

14. Internal Revenue Service Migration

17. Vigo County School Corporation

18. Vigo County School Corporation

19. Benjamin Franklin Elementary School

20. Davis Park Elementary School

21. Deming Elementary School

22. DeVaney Elementary School

23. Dixie Bee Elementary School

24. Farrington Grove Elementary School

25. Fayette Elementary School

26. Fuqua Elementary School

27. Hoosier Prairie Elementary School

28. Lost Creek Elementary School

29. Meadows Elementary School

30. Ouabache Elementary School

31. Riley Elementary School

32. Rio Grande Elementary School

33. Sugar Creek Consolidated Elementary School

34. Sugar Grove Elementary School

35. Terre Town Elementary School

36. West Vigo Elementary School

37. Honey Creek Middle School

38. McLean Middle School

39. Otter Creek Middle School

40. Sarah Scott Middle School

41. West Vigo Middle School

42. Woodrow Wilson Middle School

43. McLean High School

44. North Vigo High School

45. South Vigo High School

46. Washington High School

47. West Vigo High School

48. Benjamin Franklin Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

49. Davis Park Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

50. Davis Park Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

51. Deming Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

52. DeVaney Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

53. Farrington Grove Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

54. Farrington Grove Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

55. Fayette Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

56. Fayette Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

57. Fuqua Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

58. Hoosier Prairie Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

59. Lost Creek Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

60. Lost Creek Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

61. Meadows Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

62. Ouabache Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

63. Ouabache Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census Without College Students

64. Rio Grande Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

65. Sugar Creek Consolidated Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

66. Sugar Grove Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

67. Terre Town Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

68. West Vigo Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

69. Executive Summary
The resident total fertility rate for the Vigo County School Corporation over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.52 vs the replacement level of 2.1) The resident Total Fertility Rate would still be below replacement level (2.03) if the college population was excluded
Most non-college in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-34 year-old age groups.
The local non-college 18-to-24 year-old population continues to leave the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out-migration flow. The second largest out-migration flow is households aged 70 and older.
The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to decrease over the next 10 years are the level of out-migration of resident 18-to-24 year-olds, the increasing number of empty nest households and a relatively low number of existing elderly households turning over.
Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next 10 years will primarily be due to smaller grade cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with larger grade cohorts leaving the system.

70. Executive Summary
 After the school year the elementary enrollment will experience a slight but persistent decline.
The median age of the population will increase from 36.0 in 2010 to 38.6 in This is a significant increase for a school district that has two sizable universities located within its boundaries.
Even if the district continues to have a modest level of annual new home construction, the rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factors affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.
Total district enrollment is forecasted to decrease by 467 students, or -3.2%, between and Total enrollment will decrease by 443 students, or -3.2%, from to

71. Table 1: Forecasted Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020

72. Table 5: Elementary Enrollment, 2017, 2022, 2027

73. Benjamin Franklin Elementary School

74. Davis Park Elementary School

75. Deming Elementary School

76. DeVaney Elementary School

77. Dixie Bee Elementary School

78. Farrington Grove Elementary School

79. Fayette Elementary School

80. Fuqua Elementary School

81. Hoosier Prairie Elementary School

82. Lost Creek Elementary School

83. Meadows Elementary School

84. Ouabache Elementary School

85. Riley Elementary School

86. Rio Grande Elementary School

87. Sugar Creek Consolidated Elementary School

88. Sugar Grove Elementary School

89. Terre Town Elementary School

90. West Vigo Elementary School