1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Forth Valley
comprising Clackmannanshire, Falkirk and Stirling
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. The Forth Valley Region
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per 10,0000 ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Forth Valley’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Forth Valley by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Skills in Forth Valley
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Forth Valley Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Forth Valley
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Forth Valley
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Forth Valley 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Forth Valley

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. An example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Forth Valley Region

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region, 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA local authority, 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Forth Valley
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Stirling
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6% 4% 3%
10%
Production 8% 7%
Construction
11%
13%
12%
Motor trades 2%
Wholesale
Retail 9%
Transport & storage 5%
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance 0% 1%
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
19%
17%
20%
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Total
8,775
1,140
3,725
3,905
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Stirling
Forth Valley
Scotland
0-9
88%
89%
10-49
11%
10%
50-249 1% 2%
250+ 0%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per population ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Recession
(2008-9)
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
Clackmannanshire
£433
£444
-£11
Falkirk
£459
£453 £6
Stirling
£466
£404
£62
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Forth Valley local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Clackmannanshire
42%
29%
Falkirk
49%
28%
23%
Stirling
65%
19%
16%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Forth Valley here:

13. Figure 2.4: Deprivation in Forth Valley by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

14. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Clackmannanshire
-10%
-14%
-20%
-21%
23%
112%
-3%
Falkirk
-1%
-9%
-2%
44%
94% 7%
Stirling 4%
-6% 6%
30%
90%
10%
Forth Valley
-5%
-7%
36%
95%
Scotland 1%
-8%
27%
85%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

15. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Region
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December 2016.
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

16. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Local Authority
High unemployment, High Inactivity
Low unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December 2016.
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean..

17. Table 2.6: School Leavers’ Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16
Forth Valley (RSA)
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Stirling
Higher education (%)
2009/10
33%
28%
31%
39%
2015/16
35%
22%
42%
Change 2%
-6% 4% 3%
Further education (%)
18%
23%
17%
19%
16% 0%
-2% 1%
-1%
Employment (%)
27%
24%
26%
34% 8%
14% 6% 7%
Unemployed (%)
15%
13%
10%
-8%
-9%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Forth Valley

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Forth Valley Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Forth Valley
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Stirling
Higher level jobs
39%
44%
35%
Middle level jobs
32%
33%
30%
Lower level jobs
29%
23%
26%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Forth Valley,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
0.2
2.1
2.3
Professional occupations
0.7
10.9
11.6
Associate professional & technical occupations
0.0
2.5
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-0.1
3.3
3.2
Skilled trades occupations
0.6
4.2
4.8
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
0.5
3.8
Sales & customer service occupations
5.5
5.7
Process, plant & machine operatives
2.9
2.8
Elementary occupations
10.4
11.0
Total
2.7
45.0
47.7
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2017-2027
Forth Valley
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Stirling
Higher level jobs
34%
32%
39%
Middle level jobs
25%
22%
26%
24%
Lower level jobs
41%
46%
43%
37%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Forth Valley,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.1
1.8
1.7
Mining and quarrying
-0.04
0.03
Manufacturing
-1.4
2.8
1.3
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
0.1
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
0.02
Construction
3.2 5
Wholesale and retail trade 1
12.6
13.6
Transport and storage
0.3
5.9
6.2
Accommodation and food services
0.7
5.7
6.4
Information and communication
0.2
0.004
Financial and insurance activities
0.005
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical
1.1
Admin. and support services
1.4
4.7
6.1
Public admin. and defence -1
3.1
2.2
Education
-0.3
4.2
3.9
Human health and social work
5.6
Arts, entertainment and recreation
2.5
Other service activities
Total
4.9
53.2
58.1
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Forth Valley,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.2
0.3
0.1
Construction
1.8
3.7
5.5
Creative industries
0.4
0.6
Energy
-0.3
0.2
Engineering
-0.02
0.9
0.8
Financial and business services
1.2 2
Food and drink
-0.1
2.3
Health and social care
0.7
5.6
6.2
ICT/digital
0.01
Life sciences
Tourism
6.3
7.2
Total
4.08
21.21
25.29
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Total Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Forth Valley, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Forth Valley, 2017-2027
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
0.4
2.2
2.7
SCQF
1.9
18.6
20.6
SCQF 6
-0.3
6.4 6
SCQF 5 1 11 12
SCQF 1-4
2.8
2.5
No Qualifications
0.1
3.9 4
Total
44.9
47.8
Source: Oxford Economics.