1. Middle East Cold War Sectarianism

2. Sectarianizing the Middle East
1979 Islamic Revolution shifts the paradigm away from the Arab Cold War, to the Middle East Cold War
Religious identity defines divisions
Alliances based on common enemies and common interests
Religion as a political tool

3. sUNNI
SHI’ITE
Followers of Ali
10-13% of Muslims
11-14% in the Middle East-North Africa region
Around 70% of Shias live in Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.
Major Sects:
Imami, Ismailis, Zaydi
Sunnah, example of the Prophet
Around 85% of Muslims
Divided among 4 major and 1 minor schools of legal thought.
Hanafi, Shafii, Malaki, Hanbali,
Zahiri
Salafism, Wahhabism

4. Sunni Belief Muhammad died without appointing a successor
Companions gathered and elected Abu Bakr the first Caliph.
Father of Muhammad's wife Aisha, Caliph should be democratically chosen
After the Rashidun (first four Caliphs) hereditary dynastic is rule practiced

5. Shi’ite Belief on Succession
God chose Ali to be Muhammad's successor
Ali was Muhammad's cousin and closest living male relative, married to Muhammad's daughter Fatimah
The Farewell Pilgrimage
Hadith of the pond of Khum
Shia believe Mohammed appointed Ali caliph
Ali did not profess to be the Caliph at that time, he is later elected as the 4th Caliph

6. Hidden Imam
Where Sunnis view the Caliphs to be the historical leaders of the Islamic community, Shia follow a line of Infallible Imams as Islamic Leaders
Imami Shia believe Muhammad ibn Hasan al-Mahdī the 12th Imam was hidden by God from humanity in the Occultation in 874
The Mahdi is savior of humankind who will emerge with Isa (Jesus) bringing peace and justice to the world.
Sunni believe that the Mahdi has not yet been born and is not necessarily connected to the end of time

7. Cold War Blocs Revolutionary Bloc Led by Iran (Russian Support)
Status Quo Bloc
Led by Saudi Arabia
(US Support)

8. Cold Conflicts
Bahrain
Syria/ Iraq
Lebanon
Yemen
Afghanistan

9. Saudi Allies Jordan The Gulf States Salafi anti al Assad groups
Hadi Government in Yemen

10. Iran Allies Bashar al Assad government Bahrain Shia
Shia militias in Iraq
Iraqi government
Iraqi Kurds (pending)
Hezbollah
Houthi Shi’ites in Yemen

11. Other Actors Israel, tentatively pro Saudi United States, pro Saudi
Pakistan, pro Saudi
Russia, pro al Assad and Iran
China, seeks to avoid constraining relations

12. Iraq 1979 – 2003 Shifting the Balance
Saddam Hussein limited hegemonic ambitions of Saudi and Iran through non-alignment and pursuing and independent course
2003 invasion changed MECW dynamics
Iran gains influence
Saudi Arabia paranoia
Jihadist return to the region

13. Shia Crescent
King Abdullah II, “If pro-Iranian parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government a new crescent of dominant Shia movements or governments stretching from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could emerge.”

14. Great Powers as Client States US Gulf Relations
US Military presence; Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE, Jordan
Obama admnistration’s engagement with Iran concerns Saudi
Trump seeks to restore confidence in US support for Saudi

15. Russia Instrumental in the survival of al Assad government
Close ties with Iran
Naval and Air bases in Syria

16. Arab Revolutions Bahrain uprising Quelled by troops from UAE and Saudi
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati “All Islamic countries, as long as they're not themselves involved in the crime, bear responsibility to support the Bahrainis in their fight,“
70% Shi’ite
Political Naturalization
1981 Iran backed plan to depose al Khalifa Dynasty

17. Egypt
"The awakening of the Islamic Egyptian people is an Islamic liberation movement and I, in the name of the Iranian government, salute the Egyptian people and the Tunisian people,“ Ayatollah Khamenei
Egypt under Mubarak an ally of Saudi Arabia
The revolution and election of Morsey represented an opportunity for Iran to gain influence
Return of the Military, al Sisi

18. Assad Must Go/ Assad Must Stay
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, US, Europe
Russia, Iran
US, al Assad out, IS defeated, ‘Moderate’ rebels empowered
Saudi Arabia, Assad out, IS defeated, Islamic groups take power
Turkey: Assad out, No Kurdish independence, IS defeated.
Who is left?
Russia: Assad remains, Russian military presence solidified (Tartus) Greater influence in Iraq, reduced US influence
Iran: Assad remains, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite empowered, Continued influence in Iraq, reduced Saudi influence

19. The War in Yemen Houthi Shia Rebels Yemeni Government
AQAP and Ansar al Sharia
Saudi Arabia, “to protect the people of Yemen from a radical organization that has allied with Iran and Hezbollah.”

20. Future of the MECW
How will the nuclear deal affect Iranian foreign relations,…. And Saudi fears?
Can sectarianism be put aside after defeat of IS?
Federation in Iraq, Syria?
Kurds?
What will Turkeys increasingly important role be?
What is the impact of Russian involvement?
What role will US policy play?
Will a new paradigm emerge?