1. Factors affecting the likely success of referenda

2. Can we identify and explain factors that could affect the success of referendum?

3. Brainstorm… you task to conect
In your table groups, the starting person (the person with the LONGEST hair) must name one factor that might affect the likely success of a referendum.
Going clockwise, everyone at the table must have a turn, although you can pass

4. Strengths and weaknesses of referendum to alter division of lawmaking powers

5. Strengths and weaknesses of change by referendum
Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum
Weaknesses Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum
Double majority provisions ensure that only those proposals that have overwhelming support are successful
The low success rate – which can be largely attributed to the double majority provision (very difficult to attain) and timing, complexity of question – 8/44 proposals successful
Smaller states are protected from domination by more populated states due to needing support from majority of states (4/6)
Must pass through Commonwealth Parliament houses, therefore greatly controlled by the Commonwealth which often proposes increases in their own power
The lengthy process means that proposals are considered in full, thereby protecting the constitution from changes without merit
Lengthy and costly – 1999 referendum cost 66 million dollars

6. Reasons why referenda may fail-
Of 44 referendum only 8 have been successful – 4 of these in changing the division of lawmaking power
Referendum proceedings have proven very unsuccessful since Federation.
Since 1901 there have been 19 referenda. In those 19 referenda, there have been 44 proposals. Only eight of the 44 proposals received support from the voters.

7. Timing

8. Timing
Referendums are often held at the same time as a general election to minimise costs
People then are more focused on who to elect than the referendum
In times of uncertainty, people generally vote No

9. Strict formula for change/double majority

10. Strict formula for change/double majority
The formula (s.128 Constitution) is rigid in demanding that the proposal satisfy half of voters to be accepted in at least four of six states as well as majority of voters nation wide
Founding fathers wanted to make sure any change to constitution had overwhelming support
While 13/44 referendum proposals received the support of a majority of Australians overall, 5 of these did not satisfy the majority of “yes” votes in a majority of states requirement
Eg Referendum involving simultaneous elections
Failed as even though supported by 62.2 % of all Australian voters, only majority of voters in 3 states agreed

11. Difficulty gaining bipartisan support

12. Difficulty gaining bipartisan support
Unless referendum questions have bipartisan support (two party support) from the leaders of the major political parties, they will almost certainly fail
Parties who do not support the proposal will often urge their supporters not to vote yes
1967 Referendum on right for Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander peoples gained bipartisan support and support of Australian public

13. Confusing/complex information

14. Confusing/complex information
Referendum proposals are often complex and difficult to express in simple language
If voters do not understand issue, they are unlikely to support proposal
Eg- most succesfful referenda were simple
Eg Referendum amended s.51 to give Commonwealth Parliament jurisdiction over Aboriginal affairs

15. Voter conservatism

16. Voter conservatism
People can have resistance to change if they believe the system is working well the way it is
Unfortunately for Constitutional reform, some sections of Australian society mistrust politicians
Any referendum proposal is therefore seen by these people as a “grab for power”

17. High cost

18. High cost Referendums are expensive
1999 republican referendum cost $
It may be too expensive to fund

19. Desire to maintain states’ rights

20. Desire to maintain states’ rights
Many referendum proposals have been perceived by the States as shifting too much power to the Commonwealth Parliament
They therefore have been rejected
When put to voters, if a premier urges voters to say “no” it is almost sure to fail

21. Impact of referenda on the Constitution
The main impact of successful referenda is that it alters the wording of the Constitution .
Words can be altered, added or deleted
This in turn can alter the division of law making power, giving the Commonwealth power in an area that was once residual (state power)
Eg: 1967 the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were removed from section 51 of Constitution” gave the Commonwealth the ability to legislate for Aborigines where this was once a state power
However, other referendum, such as the retirement of judges at age 70, have had no impact upon the division of state and commonwealth law making powers

22. 2.5
1.)Explain why the actual requirements needed to change the Constitution via a referendum have hindered change.
2.)Give an example of a referendum proposal that may have been too complex leading to a ‘no’ vote.
3.)Why is bipartisan support so crucial to achieving success in a referendum?
4.)Explain why a desire to maintain states' rights may result in referenda not being passed.

5.) In the following examples state whether each referendum would have passed.
A.) A majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and two out of the six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.
B.) A majority of Australians do not agree to the referendum proposal and four out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.
C.) A majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and five out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.

23. Exam question
One way of changing the Commonwealth Constitution is through holding a referendum. Explain how this process operates and discuss why it has had only partial success in altering the Constitution. 6 marks