1. What We Know and Don’t Know About Cycling Safety – ask the academics
15th Nov 2017
Road Safety GB
Dr Rachel Aldred,
University of Westminster
Dr James Woodcock,
University of Cambridge

2. Physical Activity

3. Physical Activity and All-Cause Mortality
4 hours cycling per week
2 hours walking per week

4. Content Risks experienced and posed by cyclists Cycle safety trends
Factors affecting cycling risk and safety

5. How dangerous is cycling? How dangerous are cyclists?
Data from Stats19 and NTS

6. Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data
Risk of death walking, cycling, or driving, by age, by distance (incl. falls), men <70s
Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data

7. Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data
Risk of death walking, cycling, or driving, by age, by distance (incl. falls), women <70s
Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data

8. Comparing pedestrian and cyclist injury risk by distance (2006-15, Stats19)
Risk of death for cyclists versus pedestrians: 0.92
Risk of KSI for cyclists versus pedestrians: 1.90
Risk of all injury for cyclists versus pedestrians:
2.62

9. All injuries with known striking mode: Stats19 2005-2015
pedestrian1
cyclist
motorcycle
bus
light goods
heavy goods
car/taxi
Fatal 26 49
335
774
1315
2834
9592
Serious
848
1427
4038
5420
12261
9982
138219
Slight
7620
7936
24608
36376
106917
73455
1 only included if pedestrian also injured

10. Pedestrian injuries with known striking vehicle, Stats19 2005-2015
striking mode
cyclist
motorcycle
light goods
bus
heavy goods
car/taxi
Fatal 29
167
323
369
561
3060
Serious
674
1972
2636
2656
1150
39106
Slight
2464
7435
9029
9560
2436
143750
NB ped ped collisions are not included in Stats19

11. Cyclist injuries with known striking vehicle, Stats19 2005-2015
striking mode
pedestrian
cyclist
motorcycle
bus
light goods
heavy goods
car/taxi
Fatal 2 9 16 51 83
230
579
Serious
121
323
355
597
1628
797
18561
Slight
787
877
2007
3123
7898
2084
113006
1 only included if pedestrian also injured

12. 1 Pedestrian-pedestrian not recorded
Pedestrian & cyclist fatalities; percentage with each known striking vehicle
1 Pedestrian-pedestrian not recorded

13. Pedestrian injuries: self-report data (NTS 2007-14)
Aldred, forthcoming

14. Cycle safety trends
Key issues & data

15. Cycle KSI numbers, London boroughs, 2005-15
Source: Stats19

16. Cycle KSI rates (per commuter), London boroughs, 2005-15
Source: Stats19, Census 2011 cycling volume calculation via PCT.bike

17. Change in risks by mode, 1991-2011
Aldred et al, in press, Injury Prevention (DfT traffic data, Census data)

18. Change in risk since 2006, Stats19 data

19. Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data
Fatalities
Feleke et al (2017) compared change in walking, cycling and driving fatalities per hour’s use, between 2010–12 vs. 2007–09
Found statistically significant improvement for
male drivers,
female drivers,
male pedestrians,
female pedestrians,
and male cyclists
– but not for female cyclists
Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data

20. What keeps cyclists safe and what puts them at risk?
Safety in numbers, infrastructure, motor vehicle speeds and volumes

21. Safety in Numbers: the Background
Reasonably consistent evidence from many studies1
Applies to pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicles
Some evidence at individual level (time spent cycling)
But
Evidence exclusively from high income countries
Evidence using robust methods only cross-sectional
Many studies poorly controlled for motor vehicle volume
Poor/no measure of street environment
1Elvik & Bjornskau: Safety-in-numbers: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence. Safety Science 2015

22. Change in cycling risk 2001-11, 202 British local authority areas, by change in cycling
Aldred et al, Contextualising Safety in Numbers: A longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, and Injury Prevention 2017 (accepted)

23. Safety in numbers: route-level analysis for London
Aldred et al, forthcoming, based on CYNEMON and other route network data for London

24. Danger in (motor vehicle) numbers, London
Aldred et al, forthcoming, based on CYNEMON and other route network data for London

25. Impact of infrastructure on hospital attended cycling injuries
Teschke et al 2012,

26. Conclusions
More walking and cycling can substantially benefit public health
Motor vehicles are the main threat to cyclists and pedestrians, with this a major barrier to cycling uptake in UK.
Fatality rates for pedestrians and cyclists are similar. Rates for cycling injuries are higher.
Measured via serious injury rates, cycling got riskier in recent years, while driving and walking got safer.
Interventions that separate cyclists from motor vehicles, or substantially reduce motor vehicle volumes and speeds, help.
Safety in numbers works at route level – so interventions that attract more cyclists will also keep each cyclist safer.

27. Publications cited
Aldred, R. et al, 2017, Contextualising Safety in Numbers: A longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, and , accepted for publication in Injury Prevention, available on request
Aldred, R. et al, forthcoming, Cycling injuries in London: the impact of motor vehicle and cycle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits, under peer review, available on request
Aldred, R., forthcoming, Inequalities in self-report road injury risk in Britain: a new analysis of National Travel Survey data, focusing on pedestrian injuries, under review, available on request
Feleke, R. et al, 2017, Comparative fatality risk for different travel modes by age, sex, and deprivation, Journal of Transport and Health, available at
Teschke, K. et al, 2012, Route Infrastructure and the Risk of Injuries to Bicyclists: A Case-Crossover Study, American Journal of Public Health, available at

28. What We Know and Don’t Know About Cycling Safety – ask the academics
15th Nov 2017
Road Safety GB
Dr Rachel Aldred,
University of Westminster
Dr James Woodcock,
University of Cambridge

29. ped injuries by cyc by age of ped
[0,20)
[20,40)
[40,60)
[60,80)
[80,110)
<NA>
Fatal 1 4 10 12
Serious
104
137
147
201 70 15
Slight
624
644
607
368
117

30. Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data
Cycling fatalities by time spent travelling, rate ratios 2010–12 vs. 2007–09, by gender
5.00
1.00
.20
Males
Females
< All ages
Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data

31. Comparing pedestrian and cyclist injury risk by distance (2006-15, Stats19)