1. East Bay Community Energy Local Development Business Plan
Task 1 LCOE (for grid-side DER)
Overview Webinar
November 30, 2017
Thomas Yurysta, Optony
LDBP Project Team:
Special Advisors:
Betony Jones & Gary Calderon

2. LCOE Analysis - Overview
Purpose
Show current costs for the DG technologies most readily available in Alameda County
Format and Content
Costs expressed in levelized cost of energy (“LCOE”)
LCOE is the net present value of all energy procured from a resource over a fixed period of time
LCOE tool is an excel spreadsheet
User has ability to adjust resource mix and see affect on overall portfolio LCOE
User can also adjust inputs to derive new LCOEs
The tool also shows potential capacities and energy output of each technology
This is a necessity in order to provide an overall weighted portfolio LCOE
However, the capacity numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The primary purpose of this tool is not to estimate countywide capacity of different DG technologies, so broad assumptions were made in deriving these numbers

3. LCOE Analysis - Approach
Methodology
Cost
For solar, since data is widely available, cost estimates derived ground-up using known pricing for individual components
For other technologies, cost estimates derived from industry reports and supplemented with vendor quotes and empirical data
Cost broken down by initial capital cost, annual fixed costs, and annual variable costs
Capacity Factor and Energy Output
Solar and wind are highly dependent on location and system configuration, so production estimates were modeled
For other resources that are not constrained by resource availability, production estimates were based on typical runtimes for the plant type (e.g. typical biofuel plants have capacity factors of 80%)
LCOE
LCOE is a simple summation once cost and energy output numbers are known
The LCOE calculation is done on a separate tab of the spreadsheet. NREL’s online LCOE calculator was used to validate.

4. LCOE Analysis - Approach
Notes and Limitations
Energy generation is a long term investment with large upfront costs. As such, LCOE is highly sensitive to both financing costs and discount rate.
A discount rate of 6% was used for this analysis.
The concept of LCOE is less intuitive for storage technologies, since energy is being time shifted rather than created.
For flywheels, which are often used for grid regulation, both charging and discharging cycles are included in the energy side of the LCOE calculation
For all other storage technologies, only the discharge cycles are included
LCOE is best used as a cost comparison between energy generation technologies

5. LCOE Analysis - Results
Findings
Solar LCOEs range from $0.10/kWh to $0.156/kWh
Lowest for large ground mounts in the sunnier eastern side of the County
Highest for smaller roof mounts along the Bay
Solar has by far the greatest potential, so overall portfolio LCOE driven by solar
Large scale wind has the best LCOE at $0.084/kWh
This is for turbines in the northeast corner of the County where wind speed is highest
For other DG technologies, LCOE varies greatly
Biofuels driven by fuel source and plant capacity factor
Storage and fuel cells driven by runtime
Comparison to Lazard’s LCOE Analysis
Our numbers generally fall within the bounds of Lazard ranges. Exceptions:
Our wind LCOE is higher. Lazard report assumes capacity factor of 30-35%, but highest available in Alameda County is 29%.
Our solar LCOE for large ground mounts is higher. Lazard assumes higher insolation than is available in Alameda County (main factor) and larger sizing of 10 MW (minor factor)

6. LCOE Tool – Main Table
Shows all inputs and resulting LCOE for each technology. The green rows show cumulative totals.

7. Toggle resources on/off here
Totals in this row update to reflect selected resource mix
LCOE of total portfolio $0.129/kWh over 20 years

8. Measured solar potential higher than shown here
Potential capacities for biofuels, fuel cells, and storage are placeholders, represent typical plant sizes
T&D losses for storage technologies represent round- trip conversion efficiencies
Variable costs are mostly fuel, some O&M related to plant runtime

9. LCOE Tool – Calculator Tab
Allows the user to select a DG technology from a dropdown list (yellow cells) and adjust any of the input associated with that technology (grey cells) to see the effect on LCOE. User can also adjust the analysis period or discount rate.

10. The deadline for submitting comments is:
Thank you
The Draft EBCE LDBP Task 1 (Grid-side DER) LCOE Report is posted for public review and comment at:
The deadline for submitting comments is:
December 8, 2017
LDBP Project Team:
Special Advisors:
Betony Jones & Gary Calderon