1. Augusto Castro-Nuñez University of Copenhagen
Potential synergies between forest carbon-storage and peacebuilding policies
Augusto Castro-Nuñez
University of Copenhagen
I will present you preliminary results about a story related to forest carbon mitigation efforts in areas experiencing armed conflicts. The title of my presentation is: Reasons for forest carbon conservation among farmers in the Colombian Amazon.
Cali, October 19th, 2016

2. Key concepts and background of the study

3. Peacebuilding Refers to measures aimed at:
reducing the risk of conflict
addressing causes of conflict
strengthening capacities for conflict management,
achieving sustainable peace and development (UN, 2010).

4. REDD Result based payments
Reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; and the role of conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of carbon “stocks”.
Co-Benefits (+)
Forest reference levels
Non- Forest
Forest
Country
threatened forest ?
Avoided D & D ?
REDD Result based payments
MRV
Pedroni, 2011

5. Global attention on REDD+ exists
Global climate discussions
> 4.7 billion U$ pledged for readiness phase
> 37 developing countries are designing REDD+ strategies
Several local REDD+ initiatives worldwide
Commitment to action is mostly limited to the environmental stakeholders and is far from sufficient (Bliuc et al., 2015).
The challenge is on how to accelerate commitment to REDD+ action outside the environmental sector.

6. Can political support and commitment to REDD+ be increased …..
by providing financial incentives?
by finding complementarities with biodiversity conservation efforts?
by ensuring other social and environmental co-benefits?
by aligning it with local priorities and development goals?
I also don’t want to go deep on details about expectations on the mechanism. I also believe you al know about this expectations. However, I have to recognise that I still hesitate about reasons and factors explaining the interest of developing countries and local communities in REDD+. If there is a real interest on REDD+?, is this interest explaining by financial benefits (?)
At national level: is it explaining by complementarities with national priorities such as biodiversity and governance (?).
At community level: is it explained by its potential contributions to local’s priorities (?)

7. The case for integrating forest carbon-storage and peacebuilding
Several REDD+ countries are experiencing (or emerging) from conflict.
related to unclear land tenure regimes and unbalanced land-use competitions
Interactions between REDD+ and peacebuilding policies have not yet been considered at any scale.
Relationships between forest carbon-biomass and armed-conflicts remain unclear.

8. REDD+ and peacebuilding
REDD+ and peacebuilding are similar:
Provide livelihoods
Build institutions and capacities
Improve governance
Safeguard community rights
Consider land reforms and conservation strategies
Co-delivery would occur if priority areas for REDD+ overlap with peacebuilding priorities.

9. Method and main findings

10. Case study Republic of Colombia
A “megadiverse” country (Romero et al., 2007).
Armed conflicts since the 1940’s (Ross, 2007).
No deforestation by 2020.
Peace agreement with guerrilla groups (FARC).

11. Research objective:
Assess the potential for synergies between forest carbon storage and peacebuilding policies
Synergies between carbon-storage and peacebuilding
Correlations
Patterns of spatial associations
Impacts of armed-conflicts on forest-cover

12. Correlations between forest-carbon and armed-conflict variables
Spearman’s ρ between carbon and conflict indicators
Armed-actions
Victims
Coca
National and subnational scales of analysis
Municipal level was the unit of analysis (n=1120) .
Correlations indicate geographical overlaps.
The empirical adoption Model.
The dependent variable is potential of adoption. As I mentioned before. REDD+ is not implemented in the study area. For that reason two criteria were defined to identify potential adopters: unwillingness to (1) cut forest to increase grassland; (2) look for land in other territories if deforestation were not allowed in the region. The first criteria is because deforestation have been regarded as the main direct cause of deforestation. The second analyze potential of leakage.
Independent variables were defined based on adoption studies of sustainable practices performed worldwide. In some case we modify the effect reported in the literature based on our specific knowledge of the study area. The sing in the brackets represent the expected effect on adoption. For example it was expected that higuer number of economic dependents will influence negatively adoption. on

13. Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I)
Significant spatial associations.
Show 4 types of associations
High – High
High – Low
Low – High
Low - Low

14. Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I)
Between carbon and armed-conflict indicators
Armed actions
Victims
Coca

15. Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I)
Between forest cover changes and conflicts indicators
Venues for battle
HC - HAA
Sources of high value natural resources.
HC - HCOCA
Hideouts
HC - HV
Spoils of war
LC - HV
Armed actions
Victims
Coca

16. Main findings
Correlations and Moran’s I suggest potential for synergies
Conflict-affected municipalities store more carbon and are at lower risk of deforestation.
Spatial explicit analyses show 3 roles of forested/non forested areas in armed-groups’ military strategies
Hideouts
Spoils of war and
Places to harvest resources to finance war
Impact of armed-conflict on forest cover vary according to these roles.
Policy integration between REDD+ and peacebuilding) might increase political support and commitment to action.
But is restricted by REDD+ focus on avoided deforestation

17. (In review in Environmental Research Letters)
SPATIAL ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN CARBON IN WOODY BIOMASS AND CONFLICT-RELATED VARIABLES INDICATE POTENTIAL SYNERGIES BETWEEN FOREST CARBON-STORAGE AND PEACEBUILDING POLICIES
Augusto Castro-Nunez a, b, c, *, Ole Mertz a, Chrystian C. Sosa c,
aUniversity of Copenhagen b ONF International​ c International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
(In review in Environmental Research Letters)

18. "Violence is a social project - It has to be organized or opposed, accepted or rejected, by groups of human agents" Paul Richards
Thanks!!!