1. Political Attitudes and Public Opinion

2. I need to see …
Daniel Fried
Takako Kimura
Tyler Richards
Lenis Warren

3. Problems with relying on public opinion
Many people lack political knowledge
Attitudes not “ideological” (no apparent pattern)
Attitudes seem to shift from day to day
Difficult to measure reliably

4. Measuring Public Opinion
Polling
Concerns:
Sampling issues
Measurement issues

5. Sampling issues What is the relevant population? Is the sample random?
- who do we ask? (selection bias)
- who answers? (nonresponse bias)
Is the sample big enough?
Jesse Ventura election example of the wrong population – talked to people who had voted in the last election
Random sampling – classic example –Literary Digest poll predicted Landon beating Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election because it drew samples from phone books and auto registrations. What’s wrong with that? Keep in mind, 1936.
– use random digit dialing – probably best method
CNN polls that you access from the website - *not* a random sample of people!
Who answers? Polling tends to overrepresent upperclass and well educated people, as others are less likely to be home and/or less likely to have the time to answer questions
Also a concern for the deeply suspicious – perhaps a whole group of people who won’t answer polls for “fear” or “paranoia” reasons

6. Class results of knowledge test – morning and afternoon
Class results of knowledge test – morning and afternoon. So this is a general, required class, a “random sample” of UNT students. But what if I did this in a con law class instead? Then the sample wouldn’t be random, we’d have selection bias. What if I were interested in college students more generally, not UNT specifically? Wrong population. What if I only asked the front row? Sample size too small, also may not be random!

7. Morning and afternoon results on a per-question basis

8. Measurement issues A poll is only as good as the questions asked!
Problems
Confusing questions
Value-laden questions (push polling)
Over-simplified questions
Satisficing
Salience
Question order

9. Possible Survey Question – What’s Wrong?
Most semesters are 15 weeks long; while most quarters are 10 weeks long.  However, in a quarter, we take out two days for Thanksgiving, one for Veteran’s Day, and one for Columbus Day.  On the other hand, semester schools also get Labor Day off, but they start several weeks earlier in the fall and generally attend school farther into December.  Plus, some semester systems take more than two days for Thanksgiving.  Considering the above, which system would you prefer?

10. Possible Survey Question – What’s Wrong?
Since informed political participation is the lynchpin of American democracy, should PSCI 1050 be a requirement for graduation?

11. Possible Survey Question – What’s Wrong?
Should abortion be legal or illegal?

12. Possible Survey Question – What’s Wrong?
Do you think UNT faculty should or should not be allowed to opt out of the Texas Teachers’ Retirement System?

13. What’s a politician to do??
Don’t take polls too seriously
Know your audience!
Avoid “position issues” in favor of “valence issues”
Position issues are issues that you have to be on one side or the other while valence issues are issues that everyone agrees on, only salience/importance varies (like being pro-education, anti-crime, etc.

14. Example of a Valence Issue