1. The Launch of the 2015 Social Cohesion and Reconciliation (SCORE) Index for Cyprus What are the key predictors of achieving a political settlement in Cyprus?

2. About SeeD Center for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development
Registered in Brussels as a not-for-profit organization, operates from Cyprus
Established in 2012, but incorporates prior expertise (since the 90s) of its directors, in Peacebuilding and Quantitative Research
Dual emphasis:
Supporting the Cyprus Peace Process as an inter-communal think tank
Center of innovation for quantitative methodologies that can be used in peacebuilding, statebuilding and international development.

3. About the SCORE Index
An internationally validated tool to measure social cohesion and reconciliation in support of peacebuilding efforts
Developed through a partnership between UNDP-ACT and SeeD, and with the contribution of reconciliation experts from Northern Ireland, South Africa, Rwanda, Serbia, Israel and the United States
Implemented so far in Cyprus (USAID/UNDP), Bosnia-Herzegovina (USAID), Nepal (GIZ) and currently in Ukraine (USAID)
Additional interest to implement in the Caucasus, Afghanistan, Syria, Tunisia, and Colombia.

4. WHY do we need a SCORE index?
Monitor the social ties within a community.
Inform and improve the design of peace-building initiatives.
Evaluate peace-building activities or other peace-related interventions.
To establish targeted policies and identify optimal practices regarding the peace process.

5. The SCORE model Demographics
Social Cohesion (e.g. Human Security, Trust in Institutions)
Reconciliation (e.g. forgiveness, contact, freedom from stereotypes)
Readiness for Political Consensus
Personal Welfare & Resilience

6. Period of Data Collection
Designation
Full Name
Period of Data Collection
Sample Size
2007
“The UN in Cyprus”
Jan – Feb 2007
2,000
2009a
“A People’s Peace in Cyprus”
Jan – Feb 2009
2009b
“Investigating the Future”
Oct – Nov 2009
2010
“Next Steps in the Peace Talks”
Sept 2010
1,600
2011
“Bridging the Gap in the Intercommunal Negotiations”
March – Apr 2011
2012
“Understanding the Public Dimension of the Cyprus Peace Process”
Feb – March 2012
1,000
2013
SCORE Cyprus 2013
May – June 2013
2014
SCORE Cyprus 2014
Sept - Oct 2014
2015
SCORE Cyprus 2015
July 2015

7. Social Cohesion Index
Freedom From Corruption (belief that public life is corruption-free)
Civic Life Satisfaction (perceived satisfaction with the course of public life, e.g. handling of the economy)
Trust in Institutions (e.g. the police, the judicial system, parliament, the government)
Representative-ness of Institutions (belief that institutions work for the benefit of citizens)
Economic Security (having a secure basic income, being able to cover for needs)
Political Security (feeling free to associate and express political views)
Personal Security (feeling protected from any kind of violence)

8. Social Cohesion A A A A A A
Results similar to 2014; Greek Cypriots score lower on social cohesion than Turkish Cypriots and this difference is primarily driven by (freedom from) corruption, civic life satisfaction, and representativeness of institutions. Both communities score low on trust and representativeness of institutions.
Within the GC Community, youth as well as left-wingers score the lowest on social cohesion
Within the TC community, youth score lowest on social cohesion indicators than their older cohorts.

9. Reconciliation Index
Negative Stereotypes (holding the belief that members of the other community are filthy, lazy etc.)
Social Distance (wishing to have no or weak social ties with the other community)
Intergroup Anxiety (being apprehensive of meeting members of the other community)
Social Threats (perceiving the other community as a threat to own community)
Discrimination (actively discriminating against members of the other community)

10. Reconciliation
*Negative indicators: The higher you score in these indicators, the lower your reconciliation score is. The greatest discrepancy between the two communities is found for social distance.

11. Reconciliation: 2013-2014-2015 Comparison
European values of tolerance and multiculturalism gradually being adopted.
Constructive role of the church in the current peace process
Negative contact experiences: e.g. exclusion from health care, first to lose jobs in south due to economic crisis, businesses that seek to block Green Line trade, many excluded from voting in EU elections, regular car scratches and insults when crossing to south, occasionally severe hate crimes that are not punished, perception of Greek Cypriot lack of urgency for a peace deal
For GCs there is a statistically significant change from 2013 to 2015 (reconciliation scoring an increase from 2013 to 2015)
For TCs: sig. Difference from 2013 to 14 and from 2014 to 2015 (reconciliation steadily dropping)
0, Low Reconciliation
10, High Reconciliation

12. Readiness for Political Compromise
Propensity to Vote ‘Yes’ in a future referendum
Expectation that negotiations should conclude and a settlement achieved
Support for a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation
Support for the termination of the status quo

13. Greek Cypriots: 6.2 Turkish Cypriots: 5.2
Political compromise
Greek Cypriots: 6.2 Turkish Cypriots: 5.2 B A
GCC: Left and right wingers score higher than ppl in the centre. Youth score lower than older GCs (in line with 2014 findings). Gender differences were found for vote intentions in a future referendum (women less inclined to vote yes than men).
TCC: surprisingly, no differences were found for political orientation on this dimension. Left wingers did report being more inclined to vote yes at a future referendum however. Young TCs more ready for compromise overall.

14. Readiness for Political Compromise 2014-2015 Comparison
No significant change after commencement of talks
Follows the same negative trend as the Reconciliation Index
Significant drop in readiness for political compromise for TCs; no changes for GCs
0, low readiness for political compromise
10, high readiness for political compromise

15. 2013 Elections

16. 2010
Elections
2015
Elections

17. What is the underlying basis of differences in substantive preferences for dossiers of the Cyprus Problem?

18. PRESIDENCY PREFERENCES IN GREEK CYPRIOTS

20. A A A A B B C C

21. PRESIDENCY PREFERENCES IN TURKISH CYPRIOTS

23. A C C B B BC B BC C A

24. GUARANTORS PREFERENCES FOR GREEK CYPRIOTS

26. C BC BC AB AB B B AB AB AB

27. GUARANTORS PREFERENCES FOR TURKISH CYPRIOTS

29. B A A A A A A B

30. Which aspects of social cohesion and which aspects of reconciliation influence readiness for political compromise?

31. What predicts political compromise with the other community?
Trust in institutions
Civic engagement
Information consumption
Personal security
Political security
Economic security
Represented by institutions
Civic life satisfaction
Freedom from
Corruption
Environment security
Food security
Health security
Community security
Level of Education
Gender
Age
Political orientation
Religiosity
Social Distance
Cultural distance
Active
Discrimination
Social Threats
Intergroup anxiety
Negative stereotypes
What predicts political compromise
with the other community?
Younger GCs less ready for a political compromise (same as 2014)
Feeling represented by institutions predict readiness for political compromise (same as 2014).
(Greater) Information consumption is also related to readiness for compromise
The more threatening one perceives the other community to be the less ready one is for a political compromise
Executive Function
Empathy
Family Coherence
Social Skills
Self Confidence
Social Exclusion
Personal Life Satisfaction

32. Greek Cypriots Political compromise Social Threats & Cultural Distance
Information consumption
Economic security
Empathy
Represented by Institutions
Social Threats
Age
Family Coherence
Intergroup Anxiety & Social Distance
Environmental Security
Contact with TCs
Political compromise
Civic engagement & Trust in Institutions
Civic life satisfaction & Freedom from Corruption
Young GCs feel more culturally distant from TCs and feel more threatened by them (and by extension more anxious to meet them and more socially distant from them), they also consume less info and feel less economically secured. These together are responsible for them being less ready for a political compromise.
Trust in institutions and civic engagement go hand in hand with greater info consumptions and greater representativeness by institutions. In general individuals who are more satisfied with civic life, trust institutions more and feel represented by institutions are more ready for a political compromise (as in SCORE 2014)
Social Skills & Empathy
Food Security

33. Turkish Cypriots Political compromise Community Security
Religiosity
Community Security
Turkish Cypriots
Cultural distance
Political orientation
Represented by institutions
Executive Functioning
Information consumption & trust in institutions
Civic engagement & contact with GCs
Social Skills
Negative stereotypes & Social distance
Economic Security & Community Security
Education
Political compromise
Political security
Food, Health and Economic Security
Self-Confidence
Religiosity
Right wing TCs who are also more religious are less ready for a political compromise.
Active discrimination is associated with greater anxiety and greater threats. Individuals whose civic engagment goes together with active discrimination are also less ready for a compomise.
Cultural distance is associated with more negative stereotypes and higher social distance, but it is also associated with greater info consumption, greater trust in institutions and higher economic security. To put it differently, those individuals whose economic security, information consumption and trust in institutions is accompanied by cultural distance, they are less ready for a political compromise.
Civic life satisfaction is associated with more freedom from corruption and also more trust in institutions and higher economic security. We find here that when trust in institution and economic security lead to higher civic life satisfaction then this leads to more (and not less) readiness for a compromise.
Freedom from corruption is associated with a greater trust in institution, greater civic life satisfaction, and greater political security. These together lead to more readiness for a political compromise.
Education, Self-Confidence and Family Coherence

34. Recommendations and Next Steps
Urgent to reach out to excluded demographics:
Greek Cypriot Youth
Set up an island-wide Youth Assembly
Teach the history of the Turkish Cypriot community in Greek Cypriot Schools
Include human-rights education and multi-cultural education
Mainstream youth contact, through collaboration of the school systems
Respond to hate crimes
Turkish Cypriot Right Wing
A liberal agenda Vs a nationalist agenda?
Role of Greek Cypriot (DISY) and European (EPP) right wing
Need to start thinking about the prerequisites for winning simultaneous referendums …
Referendum swing voters seem to have specific expectations regarding the content of a peace plan, so how can we win them over?
Requires public opinion polls, across both communities using the same questionnaire, to test options currently on the table
(see for a review of best practices)
Support for peace plan can also be increased through a reduction of intergroup anxiety, social threats and cultural distance
Requires a (forward looking) Reconciliation Commission

35. For further information:
You may visit
SCORE Online Platform: