1. WHAT ABOUT HYDROCARBON CHALLENGES FOR ON-SHORE LEBANON ??
2014 LIPE & AAPG Northern
Arabia Geoscience Conference
and Exhibition
Beirut, May 27-29, 2014
Mohamad R. Khawlie
Consultant

2. CONTENTS Where do challenges start ? Problem: HC exploration Lebanon
Milestones: Separating facts from myths
Geological/Environmental & other challenges: Needs to know our on-shore
Current Regional HC Basins
General observations
Geological technical attraction
The Levant Basin
Lebanon emergence
HC Generation
Indicative Preliminary Estimates
Market: Peak Oil

3. WHERE DO CHALLENGES START ??
SIMPLE !!!
IDENTIFY KNOWN FROM THE UNKNOWN… SCIENTIFIC FACTS… FROM MYTHS
INVESTIGATE PROPERLY THE UNKNOWN
FOLLOW UPDATED TECHNICAL APPROACH
APPLY EXPERIENCED MANAGEMENT, SECURE ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, ASSURING RIGHT POLITICAL DECISION …..&
TIMELY IMPLEMENTATION

4. HYDROCARBON EXPLORATION PROBLEM IN LEBANON…??
THE PRECEDING 5 SIMPLE POINTS:
1. SCIENTIFIC FACTS
2. PROPER INVESTIGATIONS
3. UPDATED TECHNICAL APPROACH
4. MANAGEMENT & SECURING ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
5. TIMELY POLITICAL DECISION/IMPLEMENTATION
WERE ALMOST NEVER IMPLEMENTED !!!!!!

5. MILESTONES: SEPARATING FACTS FROM MYTHS
SCIENTIFIC FACT
CORRESPONDING ILL-ACTION
+ PROFESSIONAL GEOLOGISTS (PG) KNEW ABOUT LIKELIHOOD OF HYDROCARBON (HC) POTENTIALS OF LEBANON SINCE THE 1930’S & 1940’S + (PG) KNEW SINCE THE EARLY 1950’S THAT LOWER JURASSIC-PRE TRIASSIC PROSPECTS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION + (PG) KNEW SINCE THE 1950’S THAT TECTONIC MOVEMENTS IN THE REGION CAUSED SEVERE DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS ON EXISTING STRUCTURES
+ ADMINISTRATORS & POLITICAL DECISION MAKERS FOLLOWED UP ONLY BY CARING FOR THEIR TIGHT PERSONAL BENEFITS + YET, DRILLING WELLS FOR PROSPECTS INTO EXPOSED ROCKS SEQUENCE, & FAILING, CONTINUED FOR 30 YEARS + YET, DRILLING WELLS FOR PROSPECTS IN SUPPOSEDLY CLOSED STRUCTURAL FOLDS WITH MINIMAL GEOPHYSICAL INVESTIGATIONS, & FAILING, CONTINUED FOR 30 YEARS

6. MILESTONES: SEPARATING FACTS FROM MYTHS
SCIENTIFIC FACT
CORRESPONDING ILL-ACTION
+ (PG) KNEW SINCE THE 1950’S THAT 2 OPTIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED: 1. CHECK PROSPECTS OFF-SHORE AWAY FROM THE PLATE BOUNDARY 2. ON-SHORE GO DEEPER THAN THE EXPOSED JURASSIC INTO THE BURRIED TRIASSIC & DEEPER + ALL SURROUNDING COUNTRIES HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THEIR HC SECTOR INCLUDING KEEPING PROPER DATABASES, DOCUMENTATION & FOLLOWING UP TECHNICAL & ADMINISTRATIVE-LEGALPROGRESS IN THE FIELD
+ NOTHING TOOK PLACE BUT TEST DRILLING CONTINUED ON-SHORE: 1. NOTHING IN THE OFF-SHORE DONE TILL THE 1990’S, i.e. 60 YEARS LATER 2. SEVEN WELLS WERE TRIED ONSHORE ALL OVER LEBANON WITH NONE PROPERLY LOCATED & DRILLED + LEBANON KEPT THE “LAISSER FAIRE” IN HANDLING HC, IRRESPONSIBLY & ILLOGICALLY, REFLECTING THE SAME OLD TIGHT PERSONAL BENEFITS, THUS LOOSING LOTS OF TIME & EFFORTS RECENTLY WHEN THE HUGE OFF-SHORE DEPOSITS WERE FOUND

7. GEOLOGICAL/OTHER CHALLENGES: NEEDS TO KNOW OUR ON-SHORE
LOCALLY: INDICATORS
REGIONALLY
Geochemical HC Indices
Geothermal evolution
Hypsometric Sea Positions
Geological Structures
Paleo-thermal Zonation
3D Geophysical Seismics
Deep Drilling Test Wells
HC Resource Management
Paleo-geography of Marine Basins
Paleo-depositional Accumulations
Paleo-tectonic Evolution
Paleo-regional Oil Window
Current International Market

8. OTHER CHALLENGES: ENVIRONMENTAL
WHAT’S BAD
ENVIRONMENTAL MUST
ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS GENERALLY TOTALLY MISSING
SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENTAL CODES FOR NATURAL RESOURCES EXTRACTION ARE LACKING
UPGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL LAW DOES NOT RELATE PROPERLY TO HC EXPLOITATION
CONCERNS SPECIFICALLY OIL-RELATED STRONGLY LACKING
THIS APPLIES TO ON-SHORE WHILE OFF-SHORE WAS MISSING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS START WITH VERY THOUROUGH INVESTIGATIONS, BETTER MODELING & QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING PROJECTIONS
APPLY A DIFFERENT APPROACH: “WORKING BACKWARDS” FROM DECISION TO OIL EXTRACTION… NOT VICE VERSA, i.e. ASK FOR PROBABILITY THAT EXPLOITATION WILL EXCEED A CRITICAL LEVEL
ASSURE INTEGRATED REGULATIONS, i.e. DECISIONS REPRESENT “COUPLED PHENOMENA”: NATURE / RESOURCE / EXTRACTION PROCESS / COMMUNITY
FOLLOW MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH ASSESSING IMPACTS/ SENSITIVITIES/ ADAPTATION/ RESPONSE

9. CURRENT REGIONAL HC BASINS

10. SOME OBSERVATIONS 1. Notice the Continuity of Permian-Triassic-Jurassic Zones (A-B) at Depth 2. Notice the Thickening of such Zones towards the West 3. Notice the Presence of Structures in these Zones (compare later to surface)
(USGS, 2010)

11. WHAT IS GEOLOGICALLY TECHNICALLY ATTRACTIVE IN LEBANON FOR HC
SHARING COMMON GEOLOGICAL HISTORY WITH SURROUNDING PRODUCING AREAS
AVAILABILITY OF ADEQUATE POSITIVE STRUCTURES
TECTONIC ACTIVITY ACTUALLY HELPED LEAD EVENTUALLY TO SAVE DEEP HC TRAPS
A CONSIDERABLY THICK SEDIMENTARY PRISM WITH RIGHT ORGANIC RESERVOIRS

12. COMMON GEOLOGICAL HISTORY
BOTH SYRIA TO THE EAST, AND ISRAEL TO THE SOUTH, HAVE RECENTLY DISCOVERED NEW PLAYS INCREASING THEIR PRODUCTION ON-LAND BY FOCUSING ON DEEPER HORIZONS GOING INTO THE TRIASSIC
IN FACT, THE WHOLE ARAB EAST REGION ( FERTILE CRESCENT & ARAB GULF) SHARED THE SAME PALEAOGEOGRAPHY AT THAT TIME

13. Figure a: Schematic models for the plate tectonic evolution of the Lebanon region in pre-Early Jurassic/Triassic ( million years ago) - Figure b: Schematic models for the plate tectonic evolution of the Lebanon region in Early Tertiary time (50 million years ago).

14. THE LEVANT BASIN
THE BASIN UNDERWENT THREE MAIN STRUCTURAL PHASES WHICH EVENTUALLY MARKED ITS SEDIMENTARY PRISM HISTORY:
1. TRIASSIC TO EARLY JURASSIC RIFTING
2. LATE JURASSIC TO LATE CRETACEOUS PASSIVE MARGIN DEVELOPMENT
3. CENOZOIC TECTONIC COMPRESSION & TRANSFORM SLIDING

15. POST JURASSIC AND POST TERTIARY TECTONICS, VERTICAL FAULTING, UPLIFTING, BASEMENT BLOCK MOVEMENTS & VOLCANISM, RESULTED IN PRESENT STATUS

16. IT IS ENVISAGED THAT THE VARIED STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THICKENING & AVAILING ADEQUATELY SEALED PLAYS, WITH 3000M SEDIMENTARY PRISM (PALEOZOIC-EARLY JURASSIC) (Bowman.2011)

17. GEOLOGIC EVOLUTION , & PRESENT DAY TECTONIC CONFIGURATION WITH THE TRIPLE JUNCTION NORTH IN SYRIA, THE TRANSFORM SLIDING IN LEBANON, & THE ROTATION-PUSHING OF AFRICA AGAINST THE ARABIAN PLATE ACROSS THE LEVANT, MAKES THE REGION QUITE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH MANY POSSIBLE BURRIED PLAY STRUCTURES.

18. + End of Mesozoic witnessed intensification of tectonic events with the Tethys closing. This was associated with subduction, collision & compression, epeirogentic uplifts that continued & culminated into Paleozoic with rifting of the Red Sea & sliding of the transform boundary. + The end result is the following: = EMERGENCE OF LEBANON as shown. The uplifted structures remind us of what we saw before in the section across the Levantine Basin (the Triassic under the shown Blue Jurassic) = Mesozoic reservoirs are most extensive in the Middle East, notably Triassic in Iraq/Syria/& likely Lebanon, as source rocks are within Triassic/early Jurassic shallow water marls, shelf CO3 & shales, with gas-prone likely final outputs from such source rocks & conditions = Traps are both structural & stratigraphic due to both the depositional & tectonic regimes = Seals are already known in neighboring areas, & detected in Lebanon subsurface.

19. + LOTS OF THE EXPOSED FAVORABLE STRUCTURES COULD REFLECT PRE-JURASSIC/TRIASSIC STRUCTURES.
+ COMMERCIAL HC ACCUMULATIONS IN UNBREACHED PRE-JURASSIC STRATA ARE HIGHLY LIKELY AS THEY CONTAIN MANY INTERVALS OF SHALES, MARLS & EVAPORATES THAT DO NOT FRACTURE AS BAD AS LIMESTONES.

20. One Proposed petroleum system model for onshore Lebanon (Nader and Swennen, 2004)

21. Geographic extent and present day potential zones of hydrocarbon generation from possible times of Upper Paleozoic source facies (USGS, 2003).

22. INDICATIVE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES
(USGS, 2012)

23. MARKET: PEAK OIL ??
In less than 20 years, the world's oil supply will be halved. But demand will be nearly three times that amount. Meaning oil will be scarce, US Dep. of Energy, 2013

24. MARKET: PEAK OIL…??
Many oil geologists predicted the peaking in the mid 1990’s…
Then they moved it one decade to
In 2004 the Texas magnate T. Pickens predicted that the USA will never pump more than 82mbb, yet in May 2012 it was pumping 91mbb
This April 2014, “Energy & Environment” On-line stated:
"There's enough oil below American soil to put OPEC out of business for good!"
Similarly, in 2005, M. Simmons said S. Arabia can’t produce more than 9mbbd, yet its production grew to 12mbbd
So, another HC boom, & the constraint is not geology but money….&…GEO-POLITICS… anyway:
THE PRICE SEEMS TO BE RIGHT !!!!!!!!

25. MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
THANK
YOU S Y R I A