1. The persistence of inconsistency:
Patterns of contradictions in public understandings of climate change, from CSIRO’s climate surveys
Zoe Leviston, Iain Walker, Murni Greenhill, Rod McCrea, & Jennifer Price
29 October 2015
Adaptive social and economic systems/land & water business unit

2. Understanding climate change responses
Method: series of national annual surveys
2010 (N=5,036)
2011 (N=5,030)
2012 (N=5,081)
2013 (N=5,219)
2014 (N=5,163)
4,999 of repeat respondents
269 who completed all five surveys
Biggest longitudinal database in climate
change, nationally and internationally

3. Which statement best describes your thoughts about climate change?

4. Climate change attitudes/opinions/beliefs

5. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

6. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

7. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

8. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

9. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

10. Conflict of accounts
Presentation title | Presenter name

11. “How much do you think each of the following groups is responsible for causing climate change?”
Presentation title | Presenter name

12. “How much do you think each of the following groups is responsible for causing climate change?”
Presentation title | Presenter name

13. “How much do you think the following groups will be harmed by climate change?”
Presentation title | Presenter name

14. “How much do you think the following groups will be harmed by climate change?”
Presentation title | Presenter name

15. Beliefs or opinions?
Basic expressions about the causes of climate change are not so much beliefs about the physical environment as ‘position statements’
They may serve a range of social functions
Identity
Attitudes toward preferred responses to climate change
Presentation title | Presenter name

16. Misperceptions of others
ACTUAL
Not happening
Don’t know
Human induced
Happening, but natural
Presentation title | Presenter name

17. Misperceptions of others
ACTUAL
ESTIMATED
Not happening
Not happening
Don’t know
Human induced
Human induced
Don’t know
Happening, but natural
Happening, but natural
Presentation title | Presenter name

18. Misperceptions of others
ACTUAL
ESTIMATED
(by those who think it’s not happening)
Not happening
Human induced
Not happening
Don’t know
Human induced
Happening, but natural
Happening, but natural
Don’t know
Presentation title | Presenter name

19. CHANGES OVER TIME

20. Did aggregate opinions change?

21. Did aggregate opinions change?

22. Did aggregate opinions change?
F (4, 264) = 3.20, p = .014, ηp2 = .05.

23. Did aggregate opinions change?

24. Within-person consistency
Just over half of repeat respondents held a consistent opinion across the five surveys.
The remaining half (49%) selected a different opinion statement at least once.
Between 2013 and 2014, nearly a third (29%) changed their opinion.
Presentation title | Presenter name

25. What causes inconsistency?
Measurement error
Changes to the person
We strive for consistency, both in our own self-identity, but we also want to appear consistent to others*
When we’re unsure about something, we refer to our existing values to know how to think, feel, and behave
* Stone, J., & Cooper, J. (2001). A Self-Standards Model of Cognitive Dissonance. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 37(3), 228–243. doi: /jesp

26. What causes inconsistency?
Measurement error
Changes to the person
Changes in the wider social environment
Changes in perceptions about others (Leviston, Walker, & Morwinski, 2013)*
* Leviston, Z., Walker, I., & Morwinski, S. (2012). Your opinion on climate change might not be as common as you think. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), doi: /nclimate1743

27. Other changes over time
Between 2010 and 2011, ratings of the importance of climate change, how worried people were about it, and how much people had experienced its impacts, all declined significantly, but slightly
During the same time period, 2010 and 2011, there was an increase in perceived levels of scepticism
Shifts in opinion became significant in 2012.
Presentation title | Presenter name

28. Support for adaptation initiatives
Presentation title | Presenter name

29. Support for adaptation initiatives
Midpoint
Presentation title | Presenter name

30. Support for adaptation initiatives
SCALE OR ITEM r b
SE b β
(Constant)
40.34
1.96
Certainty climate change is happening
.30**
.52
.23
.03
Personal experience with climate change
.20**
-1.15
.29
-.06**
Salience of climate change
.42**
.26
.12
.05
Ethical and moral obligation
.52**
4.16
.35
.24**
Political orientation
-.15**
.01
.02
Ductile worldview
.57**
7.21
.36
.33**
Elastic worldview
-.30**
.47
Feelings of efficacy
.43**
-.90
.42
-.04
Trust in industry and authorities
-.04*
-2.77
-.16**
Trust in science organisations
.37**
2.03
.30
.12**
Trust in community sources
2.13
.11**
Negative emotions
.35**
-.18
-.01
Positive emotions
-.07**
Feeling of hope
.14**
1.22
.21
.07**
Irritation and boredom
-.17**
Source credibility
.11
.24
Amount of variance explained (R squared): %
Presentation title | Presenter name

31. Support for adaptation initiatives
What predicts support?
Feeling a moral duty and ethical responsibility to act
Having an environmental worldview that supports environmental protection
Trust in science organisations, the community, and friends & family
Distrust in industries and authorities (oil companies, car companies, government)
These explain just under 40% of variation in support
What doesn’t predict it?
Certainty that climate change is happening
How worried people are, how important it is, how much they’ve experienced it
Political orientation
Presentation title | Presenter name

32. Support for adaptation initiatives
Co-benefits of top rated adaptation initiatives:
Increased investment in renewable energy
Increased investment in invasive pest and weed protection
Increased investment in public transport
Bain et al (2015)* found asking people to imagine co-benefits of acting increased motivation to act on climate change, among both convinced and unconvinced people, and independent of how important they thought climate change was
* Bain, Paul G., Milfont, Taciano L., Kashima, Y., Bilewicz, M., Doron, G., Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B., Saviolidis, N. M. (2015). Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world. Nature Climate Change. doi: /nclimate2814
Presentation title | Presenter name

33. Support for adaptation initiatives
Co-benefits of top rated adaptation initiatives:
Increased investment in renewable energy
Increased investment in invasive pest and weed protection
Increased investment in public transport
Bain et al (2015)* found asking people to imagine co-benefits of acting increased motivation to act on climate change, among both convinced and unconvinced people, and
independent of how important they thought climate change was
* Bain, Paul G., Milfont, Taciano L., Kashima, Y., Bilewicz, M., Doron, G., Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B., Saviolidis, N. M. (2015). Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world. Nature Climate Change. doi: /nclimate2814
Presentation title | Presenter name

34. Conclusion
Beliefs are opinions. Opinions don’t always matter, but sometimes they do.
Challenge not only people’s misperceptions of science, but people’s misperceptions of other people.
Presentation title | Presenter name

35.
Thank you
Land & Water Flagship
Dr Zoe Leviston Research Scientist t e w
Add Business Unit/Flagship Name