1. Innovative SMART Forest Management
Dr. Kamen Spassov, Dr. Mariyana Lyubenova, Dr. Alexander Chikalanov, Dr. Yuri Pavlov

2. The Forest

3. Overview Integrated Value Based Model of Ecosystem Services
SPPAM Model
Decision Support System
Innovative SMART Forest Management

4. Integrated Value Based Model of Ecosystem Services
GCKE November Qingdao·China

5. Total Value of a Forest Ecosystem
𝑉=𝐸+ 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝑣 𝑖 𝑉=𝐸+ 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝑎 𝑖 𝑣 𝑖 V – total value of a forest ecosystem vi – the value of each of the components of the ecosystem n – the total number of ecosystem components E – the error of the model
GCKE November Qingdao·China

6. Component value
ai = f(pi1, pi2, …, pik) pij – parameters specific for each ecosystem k – the number of parameters related to a given component and varies from component to component 𝑣 1 = f (t1, t2, … tm) 𝒗 𝟏 – value of the tree species ti – the perceived value of each of tree species m – the total number of tree species in the ecosystem
GCKE November Qingdao·China

7. Component value Herb species - v2 Mushroom species - v3
Game species - v4
Soil types - v5
Rock types - v6
Water
Fresh Air – O2, CO2, CH4
Recreation
Etc. (insects, reptiles, bushes, …)

8. Component value
v7 = ∑ (Volume of each tree species X price) – timber value v8 = ∑ (Volume of each tree species X price) – firewood value v9 = ∑ (Volume of each tree species X price) – wood chips value v10 = ∑ (weight of each herb species X price) – herbs value v11 = ∑ (weight of each mushroom species X price) – mushrooms value v12 = ∑ (weight of each game species X price) – meat, fur, trophies value v13 = ∑ (weight of each fruit type X price) – fruits value Etc.

9. SPPAM Model
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10. Model “Low precipitation – High Temperatures”
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11. Model “High Precipitation –Low Temperatures”
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12. Decision Support System
GCKE November Qingdao·China

13. Decision Support System
The model is developed as a multi attribute utility function.
The Utility theory basically deals with the expressed subjective preferences.
Possible criteria for the meaning of best are expert decisions.
GCKE November Qingdao·China

14. Decision Support System
X1 - timber reserves in m3.ha-1 for assessment mainly of the economic effects or material services;
X2 - species richness, n.ha-1 for assessment mainly of the ecological effect, or services;
X3 - percentage of population employed in the forestry sector for assessment of social effect or services.
X1 - timber reserves
By this indicator we mention: the state of the forest ecosystem (FES) and its capability to provide all kind of ecosystem services.
X2 - species richness
The indicator expresses the stability of the FEC in changing environment and its possibility to maintain all kind of services.
X3 - percentage of population employed
GCKE November Qingdao·China

15. Utility Function The development of the model consists of 3 phases:
1. Context – the selection of main objective and subjectives.
2. Action – modelling of the specialists in forestry, ecology and environment expertise expressed as utility function and some coefficients of the function.
3. Obtaining the results verified throw the running simulations.
A full system of possible utility function occurences.
GCKE November Qingdao·China

16. Utility Function
In the formula above Xo=( Xo1; Xo2; Xo3)=(10,1,1) and X*=( X*1; X*2; X*3)= (300,200,30). The functions f2, f3 and f23 have the forms:
Presents the utility function we created and some of building functions. And boundary constraints.
GCKE November Qingdao·China

17. Graphical Representation of Utility Function
For simplicity we present the approach with fixed two variables. The saw curve is building on the base on pattern matching of subsequent patterns. The patterns themselves are built as a result of expert decisions taken in a chain of contexts.
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18. Simulation Result 1
(a)
(b)
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19. Simulation Result 2
(c)
(d)
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20. Simulation Result 3
(e)
(f)
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21. Innovative SMART Forest Management
Adaptation
Adaptation
Adaptation
Management Criteria and Limitations
Decision Support System
Value Based Model
SPPAM -
Modeled Output -
Forest
Ecosystem Unit
Real Output
GCKE November Qingdao·China

22. Management criteria
Increase the value of given forest ecosystem after certain amount of time (year, 5 years, etc.) with certain restrictions.
Keep the volume of timber at certain level or decrease/increase it within a timeframe to certain level with certain restrictions.
Provide work for a certain number of workers it within a timeframe to certain level with certain restrictions.
Etc.

23. Conclusion
Smart Management of a forest ecosystem relates to the use of mathematical models to evaluate the economic value of the elements of the system and the system as a whole, and then to the selection of optimal managerial solutions within a set of constrains.

24. Contact Information
Associate professor Kamen Spassov, PhD, MBA, MSc Head of Master Degree Program “e-Business and e-Governance” Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics Sofia University Mobile:
GCKE November Qingdao·China