1. Drones Warfare Hugh Gusterson George Washington University
For APS/GWU Short course April 22, 2017

2. What I’m going to talk about
Drones 101
Why the military likes drones
Targeting protocols
The debate over civilian casualties
Legal controversies
What the future might hold

3. What I’m not going to talk about
Have drone operators been in combat?
Do they deserve medals?
Why do they seem to have high rates of PTSD?
Are they legitimate military targets driving home in Nevada?

4. Thumbnail history of the drone
World War II target practice drones
World War II kamikaze drones
Lightning bug in Vietnam
1990s Yugoslavia wars
GPS
Satellite bandwidth
US condemned Israel’s “targeted killings” until 9/11
Martin Indyk, “The United States government is very clearly on record as against targeted assassinations They are extrajudicial killings, and we do not support that.” (July 2001)
First US drone strike October 7, 2001

5. Predator Wingspan 55 feet Length 27 feet Speed 135 mph
Endurance hours
Altitude 25,000 feet
Cost $4.5 million each
2 Hellfire missiles
To be retired by July 2017

6. Reaper Wingspan 66 feet Length 36 feet Speed 230 mph
Endurance hours
Altitude 50,000 feet
Cost $20 million each
Hellfire missiles, JDAMs, Paveway laser-guided bombs, Small Smart Weapons

8. Why the Military likes drones
Persistent, flexible surveillance
Cost
Predator: $4.5 million
Reaper: $20 million
F-16: $47 million
F-35: $ million (
Precision
“They allow you to project power without projecting vulnerability” (General David Deptula)

9. But do drones recruit more insurgents than they kill?

10. It takes about 170 people to operate a drone

11. 2014

12. Countries where US has based drones (controlled by U. S
Countries where US has based drones (controlled by U.S. military or CIA*)
Afghanistan * Burkina Faso
Cameroon Chad
Djibouti Ethiopia
Italy Kuwait
Mauritania Niger
Pakistan* Philippines
Qatar Saudi Arabia*
Seychelles Somalia (JSOC)
Tunisia Turkey
UAE Uzbekistan*

13. 2014 dronewars.net

14. There are two forms of U.S. drone strike
Mixed drone war strikes
In context of wider war
Alongside other air assets
In support of US ground troops
Often directed by military ground controllers
25% air strikes in Afghanistan by drones
2015: 80% of all drone strikes have been in Iraq & Afghanistan
Pure drone war strikes
Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, Philippines
Standalone attacks out of blue
In countries where US not declared to be at war
Often under CIA direction

15. Countries the U.S. has attacked with drones
Afghanistan
Iraq
Syria
_______
Yemen
Somalia
Libya
Philippines
Pakistan
All Muslim

18. Waziristan Size of Bahamas Population of 800,000 “Ungoverned”?
Almost 400 drone strikes
1 every three days
Use of local informants
Hard for Westerners to access, but documented civilian casualties
Reported mass social psychological symptoms:
PTSD-like symptoms
Paranoia about foreign spies
Avoidance of funerals, weddings, political meetings

19. Targeting Protocols Personality strikes Signature strikes
“We only authorize a particular operation against a specific individual if we have high confidence that the individual being targeted is indeed the terrorist we are pursuing” (John Brennan, quoted McClatchy News 4/9/13)
Signature strikes
“most individuals killed are not on a kill list, and the government does not know their names” (Micah Zenko, NYT 4/23/15)
“Suspicious” behavior: e.g., Feb 2010 strike killed 23 civilians, including children, in Afghanistan
Double-tap strikes

20. Personality strikes
41 cases of people named as killed in more than one drone strike
May target cell phones, not people

21. Civilian Casualties?
“For the past year there hasn’t been a single collateral death because of the exceptional proficiency, precision of the capabilities we’ve been able to develop.” (John Brennan, 2011, quoted NYT 8/11/11)
“Before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured – the highest standard we can set” (Barack Obama, National Defense University, 2013)

22. Estimates of civilian deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan (to 2013)

23. Problems Estimating Civilian Deaths
Dangerous & inaccessible target areas
Reliance on remote witnessing
Reliance on third parties
Combatants don’t wear uniforms
US counts “military-age males” as insurgents
What is an “insurgent”?

24. Legal Controversies: international
Critiques only refer to “pure drone warfare”
Drone strikes not authorized by UN
Authorized by target countries?
Special issues re Waziristan
Self-defense against imminent threat?
1842 Carolina case: threat should be “instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means, and no moment of deliberation.”
Violate Geneva Conventions distinction between battlefield and civilian spaces?
Double-tap strikes
UN rapporteur Christof Heynes: “war crime and a violation of the right to life.”

25. Legal Controversies: domestic
Does AUMF apply to strikes (on al Qaeda’s enemy!) in Yemen & Somalia?
Six Americans killed by drone strikes
Kemal Darwish
Anwar al-Awlaki
Samir Khan
Abdulrahman al-Awlaki
Jude Kenan Mohammad
Warren Weinstein

26. Drone strikes and democracy
Drone strikes circumvent War Powers Act
“Moral hazard”

27. what the future holds Many more nations with drones Micro drones
Smart drones
Who’s responsible for war crimes?
Drones used by police inside the U.S.
Terrorist drones

31. Laws to consider
International convention banning autonomous smart drones
Ban on double-tap strikes
All footage and control communications recorded & available to international investigators
Ban on drone strikes outside war zones
Ban on lethal use of drones within US
Better registration of store-bought drones

32. Thank-you!