1. From ice to high seas: The changing risk of coastal flooding around the world
Prof. David Vaughan OBE
Director of Science
Accompanied by:
Dr Simon Morley
Mr Paul Hayden
Mauritius State House 22 May, 2017

2. What is British Antarctic Survey?

3. British Antarctic Survey
SWOT analysis

4. British Antarctic Survey
Delivering research at both poles
Delivering scientific advice to UK government
Provides operational support to UK polar science
Delivering excellent BAS core- and grant-funding from NERC is supplemented by EU and other grants
Active programme of national and international science collaborations
SWOT analysis

5. BAS - vision
To be a world-leading centre for polar science and polar operations, addressing issues of global importance and helping society adapt to a changing world
“A partner of choice for science, operations and business wherever polar expertise can be applied”

6. BAS Supporting polar science
Headquarters in Cambridge
5 Antarctic research stations
1 Arctic research station
Deep-field facilities
2 polar ships
5 polar aircraft
SWOT analysis

7. David Vaughan Fieldwork in Antarctica 1980s
Serving on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2013

8. Why are we here?

9. South Atlantic Island fisheries
80% of Tristan da Cunha income from the commercial lobster fishery
St Helena fish is the major export and the major income stream after aid
Photo: Maurits Heech / Flickr

10. Water resources of the Upper Indus
High Mountain Asia has the highest concentration of mountain glaciers in the world
Important to note that this follows several years of work in these areas, during which we have adapted instruments that we developed for the Antarctic into ones that will work in High Mountain Asia.
300 Million people in Indus Region
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu

11. Water resources of the Upper Indus
“Glaciers are a regionally-important buffer against drought”
Important to note that this follows several years of work in these areas, during which we have adapted instruments that we developed for the Antarctic into ones that will work in High Mountain Asia.
300 Million people in Indus Region
Pritchard, Nature.
May, 2017
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu

12. Why are we here in Mauritius?
During the visit
To learn more about the Strategic requirements of Mauritius
To identify areas where BAS / NERC science may be able support Mauritius
After the visit
Share with the NERC community
Identify potential areas for future partnership
Important to note that this follows several years of work in these areas, during which we have adapted instruments that we developed for the Antarctic into ones that will work in High Mountain Asia.
300 Million people in Indus Region
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu

13. Potential areas for discussion
Baseline assessment of marine ecosystems
Ecosystem-based fisheries management
Ground-water monitoring
Sea-bed and topographic mapping
Climate-change impacts assessment …
Important to note that this follows several years of work in these areas, during which we have adapted instruments that we developed for the Antarctic into ones that will work in High Mountain Asia.
300 Million people in Indus Region
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu

14. Ice and sea-level

15. Contributions to sea-level change

16. Recent observed global sea-level rise
3.2 mm/year
2.0 mm/year
Satellites
0.8 mm/year
Tide gauges
Source – Steve Nerem 16

17. Regional sea-level rise 1993-2012
Source: NOAA

18. Impacts of sea-level rise

19. Unique coastal ecology
e.g. “Machair” in Ireland and Scotland
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: Alison Cook

20. Coastal investment e.g. Sizewell B Nuclear Power Station (England)
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: William Connolley

21. Major coastal cities e.g. Rotterdam Photo: GoogleEarth
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: GoogleEarth

22. Changing risk

23. Vulnerable areas 1 metre above highest normal tide
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Courtesy: CRESIS - Kansas
1 metre above highest normal tide

24. London - coastal vs. river flooding
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: UK Environment Agency

25. Responsive development of flood defences
1953 flood interim defences
1930 Flood Act
Late-C19 update
to Flood Act
1879 Flood Act
Photo: UK Environment Agency
Trinity Hospital Greenwich

26. 100th closure of the Thames Barrier
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: UK Environment Agency

27. 100th closure of the Thames Barrier
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: UK Environment Agency

28. Isle of Harris (Scotland)
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: Alison Cook

29. The glacial contribution to sea-level rise

30. World of glaciers Randolph Glacier Inventory = 198,000 glaciers
SWOT analysis
Randolph Glacier Inventory = 198,000 glaciers

31. Two ice sheets Antarctica and Greenland 11% of land area
Annual flux of 6 mm a-1 of global sea level
Response time years
SWOT analysis

32. Bed elevation in Greenland and Antarctica
Thinning rates
Pritchard et al., 2009 – Nature, 23 September 2009

33. Current sea-level projections

34. IPCC AR5 (2013/14) on sea-level rise

35. Closing the budget in Global Mean Sea Level 1993-2010
Data from Table 13.1
IPPC AR5
SWOT analysis
Randolph Glacier Inventory = 198,000 glaciers

36. Projections of 21st-century Global temperature
CMIP5 multi-model time series from 1950 to 2100 relative to 1986–2005
Rate comparable to deglaciation. Say what it would be without Ant ppn increase. With rcp26 you get a constant rate of rise, not zero rise.
1950
2000
2050
2100
SPM Fig 6

37. Projections of 21st-century GMSLR under RCPs
Medium confidence in likely ranges. Very likely that the 21st-century mean rate of GMSLR will exceed that of under all RCPs.
(Compared to ice2sea “best estimate” for A1B, including AR4 thermal expansion – 0.69 m)
Rate comparable to deglaciation. Say what it would be without Ant ppn increase. With rcp26 you get a constant rate of rise, not zero rise.
SPM Fig 8

38. Questions stakeholders ask

39. Unique coastal landscapes
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: QRT300

40. Corpus Christi - Texas Photo: Karen “The Brit_2” – flickr
Moving from Flood Defence to Flood Risk Management.
Flood Risk =
Probability (which decreases as increasingly large defences are built) X
Consequence (which increases as people move in and develop behind the defences)
We are used to the concept of probability (likelihood) of flooding and it can be measured fairly easily. Consequence is more difficult and our studies are enabling us to measure the risk and the value of reducing the consequence through flood risk management measures within the flood plain. These are known as “Receptor” responses.
Photo: Karen “The Brit_2” – flickr

41. Combined high-end estimates for 2100 changes in extreme 50-year storm height
Storm surge climate
Ice-induced ocean dynamics
Ice melt
Thermal exp + non-ice ocean dynamics
Vertical land movement

42. Specific questions asked by policy-makers
Maximum rates of sea-level rise
Low-probability high-impact scenarios of sea-level rise vs. “best-estimate”
Local impacts (subsidence/emergence)
Sea-level vs. storm surge
Photo: ICIMOD Kathmandu

43. Thank you for your attention