1. CITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Dr. Suresh K Rathi
Contact:
December 12, 2014

2. Hippocrates (500 BC) suggested that while treating the patients, physicians should know the …
soil
Air
Water
Urban condition
of that area

3. Background – Urban Areas
Urban areas occupy 3% of earth’s surface with >50% world’s population
Developing countries responsible for 95% of world’s urban population growth.
Ref: UN-HABITAT in 2008

4. Urban areas are vulnerable to
Climate change like …
Heat wave …
Ahmedabad 2010 heat wave (May month) responsible for 43% excess of all cause mortality as compared to ref. period
70K people died Europe Heat Wave
12K - Paris heat-wave -2003
Post 2003, most Government buildings started using A/C
Flood: Surat
Cyclone
City-specific issues
Migration and health, livelihood, Road safety, traffic, air pollution, infrastructure

5. Climate Induced Risk and Vulnerability – An Account for Surat
Doubling its population every 10 years over the last 4 decades (55% of its population is migrants)
City limit extended from 8.18 sq.km (1961) to sq.km (2006)
Inclined to vector borne diseases (malaria) b/c of its geographic location, socio-demographic structure, urbanization & climatic variables
Plague, Leptospirosis
Temp. and Humidity: 11% and 18% high all cause mortality

6. Climate Induced Risk and Vulnerability – An Account for Surat (Contd.)
23 floods from 1914 and 2013
4 floods between
Most problematic flood on 7 August 2006
80% city in the water
Economic Loss around US$ 4200 million (INR 250 Billion)
Human Loss – 150

7. Different cities have different climate risk (vulnerability)
Like
Ahmedabad: Heat wave
Bangalore : Flood (coastal and Rainfall), Pollution
Chennai: Flood, Cyclone, Pollution
Surat : Flood + Heat Risk (Humidity)
So we need to assess City specific vulnerability for climate change and its impact on health

8. Vulnerability
Function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive Capacity.
Vulnerability = f(exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)
Expressed as % of loss between 0 = no damage to 1 = total damage for a given disaster

9. IPCC - Definitions
VBD (Malaria)
Exposure:
Mosquito Density
Breading sites
Temp.
Sensitivity:
VBD indices (ABER, SPR, API)
Population Density
Migration
Coping / Adaptive capacity:
Mosquito Elimination Drive
Disease Surveillance System
Treatment coverage
Exposure: Nature & degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations
Sensitivity: Degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli
Coping / Adaptive capacity: Ability of a system to adjust to climate change

10. Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential Impact
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability

11. A Multidisciplinary Approach
Dimension of VA
DIMENSION
EXPERTS
Engineers, Architects
Economists, Social Anthropologists
Epidemiologists, Public Health Experts
Ecologists, Climate Experts
Politicians / law makers
Physical / Functional
Socio-economic & Socio-Cultural
Health
Ecological/Environmental
Political / Institutional
A Multidisciplinary Approach

12. Nature of Vulnerability Assessment
General vulnerability of services and systems
Condition specific vulnerability like…
Vector Borne Diseases
Water Borne Diseases
Heat stress
Floods

13. UHCRC’s Plan of VA (1st City Vulnerability Study in India)
Smaller cities of South Gujarat
8 Municipal Corporations of Gujarat
7 Zones of Surat city

14. Methodology
Workshop
Designing of data collection tools and Operational Manual
Interviews of Stakeholders
City specific Analysis of climate variables
Developing city specific (Local) vulnerability and climate change Resilience Matrix
Dissemination

15. Methodology: (Contd.) Cross – Learning Approach
Workshop – Sept. 2014
Experts from disciplines such as
Health
Architecture and urban planning
Social science
City Specific population groups

16. City specific VA will help us in Resilience Planning - Framework

17. Climate change knows no borders, neither do we.
We cannot eliminate changes due to climate, but we can mitigate the risk with collective efforts

18. THANKS