1. Week 6 Understand and use probability
Functional MATHS
Week 6
Understand and use probability

2. This maths trick will “guess” your age
To start….
This maths trick will “guess” your age

3. Ratio and Proportion What did we do last week?
Solve problems involving ratio :
Understand ratio notation
Simplify ratios
Calculate amounts of parts using ratio
Best buys

4. Simplifying Ratio RECAP…

5. Writing a ratio and problem solving RECAP…

6. Solving problems with ratio (Harder) RECAP…

7. Sharing in a ratio (basic example) RECAP…

8. Sharing in a ratio (harder example) RECAP…

9. Sharing in a ratio – your turn

10. What are we going to do today?
Probability
Use probability to assess the likelihood of an outcome
The language of probability
Marking events on the probability scale
Calculating probabilities

11. The likelihood of an outcome
Probability
The likelihood of an outcome

12. Probability line activity
How can you decide the probability of an event like “I will be struck by lightning this afternoon”?
How can you calculate exactly the probability of getting a tail with one toss of a coin?

13. The probability line activity
We will go through some statements and we will need to place these in order from impossible to certain on the line.
Where do you think each event will go?

14. A pregnant lady gives birth to a boy

15. A lady gives birth to a tiger cub

16. A pregnant lady gives birth to a boy or a girl

17. You will be hit by lightning this afternoon

18. You will get a four with one roll of a dice

19. You will get a tail with the toss of one coin

20. You will sleep tonight

21. You will get a heart when you pick a card from a pack

22. There will be an earthquake in Lowestoft in the next 3 yrs

23. The sun will rise in the morning

24. You will win the lottery in your lifetime

25. Equal chance

26. Certain

27. Impossible

28. Likely

29. Unlikely

31. 1

32. 0.5

33. the number of ways it can happen total number of possible outcomes
Vocabulary
Even chance
Likely
More likely
Equally likely
Very unlikely
May happen
Impossible
Certain
Unlikely
Possibly
50-50 chance
Very likely
The probability of something happening is:
the number of ways it can happen
total number of possible outcomes

34. The probability Scale

35. Calculating probabilities

36. An introduction to simple probability
What is the probability of getting a tail in one toss of a coin?

37. What’s the probability you pick a sweet?

38. What’s the probability you pick a stick of chewing gum?

39. What’s the probability you pick a humbug?

40. Lucy picks a counter at random from a bag.
What is the probability of taking a blue counter?
What is the probability of taking a purple counter?
What is the probability of taking a blue or purple counter?

41. the number of ways it can happen total number of possible outcomes
Remember…
The probability of something happening is:
the number of ways it can happen
total number of possible outcomes
Probability can be expressed as a fraction e.g. the probability of throwing ‘heads’ is ½, or as a decimal (1/2 = 0.5 chance)

42. Calculating Probability examples
When you throw a dice, what’s the probability of scoring 6?
When you throw a dice, what’s the probability of scoring an odd number?

43. What is the chance of getting a 6 on this spinner?2 4 6

44. What is the chance of getting an odd number on this spinner?1 2 3 4 5

45. What are the chances of getting a 6 on this spinner?5 4 3

46. What is the chance of picking a blue ball out of the bag?

47. What is the chance of picking a purple counter out of the bag?

48. Probabilities add up to 1

49. Harder exam questions

50. True or False?

51. 1.
When you roll a fair six- sided dice, it is harder to roll a six than a four.
False – a fair dice, so all numbers have equal chance

52. 2.
Scoring a total of three with two dice is twice as likely as scoring a total of two.
True – look at the combinations:
next slide

53. True – look at the combinations:
A score of two can only be obtained in one way – a 1 on each dice.
A score of three can be obtained in two ways – 1 and 2 or 2 and 1, so the three is twice as likely.

54. 3.
In a lottery, the six numbers 3, 12, 26, 37, 44, 45 are more likely to come up than the six numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.
False – each number has the same chance

55. The probability of two heads is therefore4.
When two coins are tossed there are three possible outcomes: two heads, one head, or no heads.
The probability of two heads is therefore
False – look at the combinations:
next slide

56. False because there are four outcomes:
HH, HT, TH, TT
So the probability of HH is one out of four, or

57. 5.
In a ‘true or false’ quiz with ten questions, you are certain to get five right if you just guess. 
False – you would expect five right, but because of chance it won’t happen every time.

58. 6.
After tossing a coin and getting a head five times in a row, the next toss is more likely to be a tail than a head.
False – only gamblers believe their luck will change. The probability will be 1/2 each time, whatever happened before.

59. 7.
My friend has four daughters. If she has another baby, it is more likely to be a girl than a boy.
False, same as with the coin, unless you look at scientific results, which might suggest various things.

60. There is an evens chance of it raining on any given day.8.
There is an evens chance of it raining on any given day.
False – just look at any weather records. It really does not rain on half the days of a year.

61. The probability of there being an eclipse at noon tomorrow is zero.9.
The probability of there being an eclipse at noon tomorrow is zero.
True – again, look at the records.

62. 10.
If I play the national lottery, I have just as much chance of winning as anyone else.
False – some people may buy lots more tickets than you.

63. Kahoot: Probability You need to use your mobile phones
Go to the following website
When prompted enter the pin (I will give you this) and your name
881f-41a9-a56d-f7fc65cf48e3

64. Directed Study

65. Directed Study
Please complete this in your directed study time and bring it to the next session 