1. Mortality projections 2010-2030-2050
PLoS Medicine paper: Mathers and Loncar (2006)
Global burden of disease: 2004 update (2008)
Global cause of death estimates (2013)
Revised projections (2013)
Global mortality and burden of disease (DALY) estimates work in progress
Updated projections : work in progress

2. GHE Projections Model
Estimated regression models using all available historical death registration data (3,534 country-years)
Separate equations for 7 age groups X sex X 10 cause groups
Mortality trends modelled as functions of:
National income per capita
Education (average years of schooling in adults)
smoking intensity (excess lung cancer above non-smoker level)
time – proxy for technological progress
BMI trends (diabetes only)
Separate models for diseases with unique epidemiology: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, lung cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory diseases, road injury, homicide, conflict
Updated to 2010 base year from original projections (Mathers and Loncar PLoS Med 2006) -

3. Global projections for selected causes of death2010 to 2050
Updated from Mathers and Loncar, PLoS Medicine, 2006

4. Decomposition of growth in projected annual deaths from 2010 to 2050: low and middle income countries
Mathers and Loncar 2006

5. Will achieving the RF targets achieve the 25x25 NCD mortality target?
Kontis, Mathers, Rehm, …Ezzati. Lancet 2014

6. Kontis, Bennett, Mathers, …Ezzati, submitted for publication 2016
Bayesian model ensemble projects rising life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries
Kontis, Bennett, Mathers, …Ezzati, submitted for publication 2016