1. SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEMby
Pál TAMÁS [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest]

2. FRAMES OF THE PROJECT HUNGARY 2015 PROJEKT Elite-Delphi
Representative national survey about perceptions of the future
SCENARIOS:
a. Human capital and learning-centered
b. „chamber of trade-oriented” [middle term competitiveness]
c. soft growth [sensitivity to social cohesion and sustainibility]

3. Sustainable Environment
Value leads to wealth and is the foundation for a healthy society and a sustainable environment
Wealth Generation
Healthy Society
Sustainable Environment
INNOVATION SYSTEMS
VALUE
RESEARCH

4. REFERENCE POINTS OF THE MODELL

5. STRUCTURE OF THE MODELL

6. PERCEPTIONS OF THE FUTURE [linear in the elites, chaotic in lower middle class and further down]
Levels of uncertainty: 1 A B 2 ? 3 C D
Clear-enough future
forecast
Traditional toolkit
Alternate futures
Discrete options
Game theory
Decision analysis
Range of futures
No natural option
Scenario
planning
True ambiguity
No basis for forecast
analogies
Pattern recognition
Identify general, broad, driving forces,
which are applicable to essentially all scenarios
Identify a variety of PLAUSIBLE trends within each driving force topic
trends that vary depending on your assumptions so you get positive and negative perspectives
Combine the trends so you get a series of scenarios
for example, mostly positive trends from all driving force topics would give a positive scenario
The number of scenarios should be around 3-5 (positive, negative, neutral)
Scenarios are good because one can play "what if" games
The major use is UNDERSTANDING the situation rather than trying to predict the future
Difficulty to identify the "right" scenario to include

7. LIMITED TIME HORIZONS: UNFORSEEN REFLEXION POINTS

8. „SCIENCE” IN THE ELITE-DELPHI
„KNOWLEDGE-SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY”
- Metaphore of future for the upper-middle class for the
quality of life,
its selt-confidency in the international environment,
Relative autonomies inside of the political class,
Perceptions of the actual Central European geopolitics.

9. BASIC QUESTIONS
Surviving perceptions of the„progress” paradigm among the public?
Intensity of Hungarian cultural „pessimism”?
Limits of autonomies in strategic decisions
Points and zones of state interventions?

10. „push-pull” points in the national innovation system
THE ROLE OF NATIONAL SCIENCE SYSTEMS IN THE ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE FUTURE
choices of the research system in active formation of future profiles of the country
„push-pull” points in the national innovation system
Perceived openess of the university and research system
„excellence, or relevance”
Tools and points of intervention

11. FUTURE CONTURES OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM, %
probability
potent. conflict
state interv.
Mass university [60% of the cohort]
62.1
23.4
57.3
10% foreign students
12.8
17.1
26.0
40% working class kids = students
39.3
16.6
38.7
40% of rural kids =rural students
33.1
19.2
47.0
25% of Roma minority kids with 12 classes
17.9
36.3
68.5
Retraining chanels not only for the losers
37.5
16.4
39.5
Brain drain outward
45.7
53.2
74.2
Brain drain inward
14.4
19.7
2 major EU research centers in Hungary
49.7
10.3
62.0
PhD production minimum 2x higher
29.8
38.0
GERD up to %
42.1
27.5
77.8

12. SCIENCE POLICY HORIZONS
probability
pot.conflict
state interv.
medical science: +5 years
48.4
26.4
58.8
growing role of scienctific elites
34.9
23.6
42.1
growing professional autonomy
28.2
36.0
42.0
human capital financing- gover.
22.9
35.0
72.4
science- public confidence
47.6
18.9
50.9
growing- PUS in media
38.5
14.6
43.8
research intensity in nat.econ.
60.4
19.2
66.8
High-skill state empl. Stability
38.9
31.2
57.2
2 HU „Silicon V.”
22.0
11.9
62.5

13. SHORTAGE OF RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY PERSONAL DUE TO THE BRAIN DRAIN

14. GERD FROM 0.95 TO %

15. STRONG HIGH SKILL IMMIGRATION

16. BUDAPEST IS THE CENTER OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION FOR EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE