1. Planning Future Investment in England’s Strategic Roads
Kieran Rix, Stephen Elderkin and Karen Summerville

2. Our Speakers
Kieran Rix
Stephen Elderkin
Karen Summerville

3. Kieran Rix – RIS2 Programme Director
Overview of RIS2
Kieran Rix – RIS2 Programme Director

4. We will cover three key topics
Overview of RIS2 – the strategic planning timescales, our role, work done to date
RIS2 analysis and evidence – how investment decisions will be made
Next steps – The Strategic Road Network Report, DfT consultation and what happens next

5. RIS2 is currently in the research phase of a five year planning cycle
Overview of RIS2
RIS2 is currently in the research phase of a five year planning cycle

6. At every stage we need to take these nine trends into account
Overview of RIS2
At every stage we need to take these nine trends into account
Regional-isation

7. There are four phases in each five year cycle
Overview of RIS2
There are four phases in each five year cycle
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
post-2020
Research
Decide
Mobilise
Deliver
Gather evidence on the state of the network
Decide which investments to take forward
Prepare for delivery
Deliver RIS2 and plan RIS3

8. Network Initial Report
Overview of RIS2
We have published a series of documents and will shortly release the SRNIR
Customer and stakeholder feedback
The Road to Growth
Strategic Studies
Route Strategies
Strategic Road
Network Initial Report
Published on .gov.uk
Due for publication in Winter 17/18

9. Our documents are informed by stakeholder feedback
Overview of RIS2
Our documents are informed by stakeholder feedback
2,700 points were raised
300 stakeholders provided feedback
370 members of the public contributed
Route Strategies online tool
Transport Focus research on Route Strategies
4,400 customer interviews
250 industry managers engaged 7
different sectors involved
130 questionnaire responses received
1-2-1 meetings with every LEP 5
other types of stakeholder involved
Road to Growth discussion paper and research

10. We are responding to stakeholders’ information needs
Overview of RIS2
We are responding to stakeholders’ information needs
Stakeholders will be kept informed about how they can participate in key upcoming events - in particular the DfT-led consultation, which starts in Winter 17/18

11. We are developing a robust investment decision-making process
Overview of RIS2
We are developing a robust investment decision-making process
Through the Research phase:
Stakeholder and customer feedback
Strategic Studies
Through the Decision phase:
Route Strategies
Road to Growth
Delivery
Secretary of State
Strategic Thinking
Analysis and modelling
Secretary of State decides strategic vision, funds available, performance specification and investment plan
Delivery and perfor-
mance
Consider impacts of schemes against factors including stakeholder views, safety, environment, economic growth, supply chain capability, and connectivity

12. We are taking deliverability into decision-making
Overview of RIS2
We are taking deliverability into decision-making
Early stage scheme-by-scheme assessment of deliverability risk
Route-level assessment of deliverability and impact on customers and supply chain
Aiming for stable flow of projects within programmes
Building risk and uncertainty into the RIS

13. Questions?

14. RIS2 analysis and evidence
Stephen Elderkin

15. Analysis and modelling
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Analysis and modelling is an important part of the investment decision-making process
Road to Growth
Route Strategies
Strategic Studies
Stakeholder and customer feedback
Delivery and perfor-
mance
Strategic Thinking
Analysis and modelling
Secretary of State
Delivery
Through the Research phase:
Consider impacts of schemes against factors including stakeholder views, safety, environment, economic growth, supply chain capability, and connectivity
Secretary of State decides strategic vision, funds available, performance specification and investment plan
Through the Decision phase:

16. The analytical platform comprises four elements
RIS2 analysis and evidence
The analytical platform comprises four elements
World-leading Traffic models
Comprehensive outcome models
5 regions
The entire SRN
Scheme-specific appraisal
Region/corridor appraisal
Forecast KPI performance
Quantify “strategic case”
Augment appraisal
Innovative wider economy model
Transport Planning and Evaluation Teams
GDP
Jobs
Land-use change
Whole-economy impacts
Regionally disaggregated
Translated into welfare economics for appraisal
Provide transport planning and modelling expertise end-to-end
Evaluation team feeds lessons learned back into the cycle

17. Regional traffic models determine the benefits of tackling congestion
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Regional traffic models determine the benefits of tackling congestion
Regional Traffic Models are used to forecast how traffic flows and vehicle speeds change over time following infrastructure investment. We have built five regional traffic models covering the whole of England. The detailed representation of the SRN and the wider road network make these the largest and most complex traffic models in the world. The data underpinning the traffic models has been sourced from mobile phone data instead of roadside surveys. This has created a richer and more robust representation of user demands on the SRN. We are using the RTMs as part of RIS2 to provide an early relative indication of the potential “size of the prize” from tackling current and future congestion challenges in over 200 different locations on the SRN.

18. Our outcome models focus on the broader strategic objectives
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Our outcome models focus on the broader strategic objectives
In addition to assessing the impact on traffic conditions from our major enhancement programme, we are deploying a range of Outcome Models that allow us to assess the impact on our broader strategic objectives - shown below along with a snapshot of some of our models. We are also deploying the Outcome Models to inform appropriate target setting for the KPIs contained within our performance specification.

19. Our economy model forecasts the economic impact of road enhancement
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Our economy model forecasts the economic impact of road enhancement
We are developing a national-level macroeconomic model to forecast the impact of proposed major road enhancements on economic activity such as GDP and employment
The model will be capable of informing both the strategic and economic cases for investment by producing estimates for changes in both economic activity and social welfare.
It will capture some of the key mechanisms by which road improvements impact the economy, including raising productivity, enabling new developments and boosting employment. 
This model builds on previous Land Use Transport Interaction models developed for the Transpennine Tunnel, High Speed 2 and Crossrail 2
The economy model will be used alongside conventional methods to appraise wider economic impacts set out in WebTAG.

20. Our models produce outputs that inform different parts of RIS2
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Our models produce outputs that inform different parts of RIS2
We have developed a suite of analytical models and tools – called the “analytical platform” which cover all the core Highways England activities. The diagram highlights:
The analytical tools we have developed within each key area of expenditure;
The key analytical outputs from the use of these tools;
How these outputs inform different parts of RIS2;
The key links between tools in different areas of expenditure that we will manage to generate consistent investment proposals
The analytical platform will be deployed to inform a number of RIS2 products within the Programme, including the Efficiency Review and Draft Strategic Business Plan

21. Our analytical platform informs the investment decisions on RIS2
RIS2 analysis and evidence
Our analytical platform informs the investment decisions on RIS2
We use our analytical tools to support decision making around our recommendations for RIS2, including the shape and size of the major enhancement portfolio and the appropriate balance between different types of activity.
For major enhancements, this involves both real-time support to decision makers and then more detailed analysis. This allows for iteration as the evidence base develops and new considerations emerge – as shown in the illustrative process diagram below.

22. RIS2 analysis and evidence
We use a real time GIS tool to create a comprehensive picture of the network
Layers covering:
RIS 1 schemes
RIS 1 for RIS 2
MCA
Strategic Studies
Prompts conversations about:
Proximity to ports
Overlapping/proximate schemes
Coherent corridors

23. Questions?

24. Next Steps
Karen Summerville

25. There are four milestones in the decision-making phase
Next steps
There are four milestones in the decision-making phase
SRN Initial Report publication
DfT analyses feedback to consultation
Summer ‘18
Winter ‘17/ ’18
Spring ‘18
DfT lead Public Consultation
Government response to consultation published

26. We have prepared an initial report on the Strategic Road Network
Next steps
We have prepared an initial report on the Strategic Road Network
SRNIR Initial Report
Highways England’s first assessment of the current state of the network and user needs
Our high level view of what we have delivered in Roads Period 1
The factors that have been considered in informing our future priorities
Our enhancement and maintenance priorities for the period
How we want to deliver our priorities and our proposed funding structure
Due to be published in Winter 17/18
Publication will trigger the DFT-led public consultation
The report will not contain a list of schemes

27. The SRN Initial Report comprises seven sections
Next steps
The SRN Initial Report comprises seven sections
The report covers our licence obligations in terms of reporting as well as our recommendations on the priorities for future investment
Introductory sections
What we do
Progress in Road Period 1
Informing future investment
Investment priorities
How we deliver
Have your say

28. Everyone can participate in the consultation
Next steps
Everyone can participate in the consultation
The consultation will be led by the Department of Transport. Highways England will support the consultation and inform stakeholders about how they can get involved.
The following channels will be used to promote the consultation and enable participants to provide feedback:
A dedicated inbox to collate consultation feedback
Links to the consultation website will be tweeted.
A link to the consultation webpage on the DfT website –
Sign up at the DfT website to receive alerts about the consultation

29. What you need to do Register your interest on GOV.uk to receive alerts
Next steps
What you need to do
Register your interest on GOV.uk to receive alerts
Look for the forthcoming alerts that will signal the start of the consultation
on Twitter
If you have further questions about the role of Highways England in the second Road Investment Strategy - e mail

30. Questions?