1. Calculating future electorate using a local forecasting model
Elisa Bullen
Senior Intelligence Officer
Manchester City Council
Public Intelligence, part of Performance and Intelligence Manchester City Council

2. MCCFM POPGROUP ONS ward MYEs SYOA M/F NHS ward level births and deaths
(ONS SNPP)

3. Elements TRENDS Base pop Pop 2002→ 2001 Fertility rates & counts
2001→
Mortality
ratios & counts
2001→

4. ONS Census year of arrival by age 2011 Census
School Census School Preference: Reception/Year Schools’ New arrivals in year Child Benefit Admission numbers School Vacancies home-schooled FSM HESA ward-level
ONS Census year of arrival by age Census
NHS SYOA postcode data Council tax Housing/Council Tax Benefit Residential Pipeline
State Pension by LSOA Residential social care units
MOSAIC HMP Electoral Register
NINo ward - best fit independent schools Other GM districts school data

5. Ward boundary review LGBCE MYE x SNPP x Rapid population growth
Electorate variance
2015 imbalance
MYE x
MYE too dated at small area
Projections at district level
Net out-flow migration (-1k)
SNPP x

6. Using MCCFM Recent data Ward level forecast to 2022
Future housing strategy
Growth aligned to strategy

7. Job done Electoral register for Dec 2015 P
2015 (forecast at time) P
SYOA so 18+ ok P

9. LGBCE endorsement
V MCCFM

10. for using MCCFM not SNPP
Justification
for using MCCFM not SNPP
New housing - big impact: >25k by 2026
Alternative net migration - in-flow
Need for ward forecast - diversity across wards - students, FNs, growth etc.

11. Forward thinking 2022 very different to 2015
Change not consistent, area and people
Electorate very different in 2022
Wards based on 2015 electorate imbalanced by 2022

12. Imperfect register IER – 2015 down 12,000 electors
Students – big push but HTC
Transience – short term rents
Residents v electors – non-eligible

13. ...and Polling District requirement- wrong geography
Balance 32 wards in 2015 and 2022
Members decision, advisory only

14. Brief Use Polling Districts as building blocks
Calculate Dec population in PDs
Calculate 2022 ward and PD electorate
Adjust until acceptable variance from average achieved

15. Address IER and HTC Was -12,000 on register 2014-15 just IER?
% ER to 17+ population in 2011 to 2015
% ER in student areas change
% ER in high rented areas change
% ER in areas with many FNs change
Weighted IER recovery, adjust Ward MYE

16. Pre-IER recovery = Manchester 2022 electorate of 417,015 (+4,000)
Graduated method used to determine recovery to pre IER registration rates
Relative percentage point change between 2014 and 2015 on electoral register
<2 points difference between pre and post IER rates = revert to pre IER % by 2022
>2 but <5 points difference = revert 40% back to pre IER level >5 but <10 points difference = revert 5% back to pre IER level >10 points difference = remain at post IER % level
= Manchester 2022 electorate of 417,015
(+4,000)
now needed to convert to wards and PDs

17. 2022 electorate BUT PDs not same %s by 2022 – new housing
PD electorate = x% applied to 17+ residents in ward = 2015 PD 17+
Ward electorate
Could work backwards from residents to get 2022 PD electorate
Ward electorate =y% y% x pop = 2022 ward electorate
Ward 17+ residents
so x% x 2022 ward electorate = 2022 PD electorate
BUT PDs not same %s by 2022 – new housing
proxy for 2022 %PD: % ward’s new units in each PD by 2022
apply % to increase in 17+ population in ward= 2022 PD 17+
apply % to increase in electorate in ward= 2022 PD electors

18. Proposed wards: MCCFM benefit
Confidence in electorate counts
Split City Centre ward
2015 electorate no relation to 2022
Imbalance caused gone by 2022
-29% % % %

19. Submission 131-page proposal with findings Maps of current wards
Maps of proposed wards
Technical report

20. north-west/greater-manchester/manchester
north-west/greater-manchester/manchester
Elisa Bullen
Senior Intelligence Officer