1. Retail Market Overview
Update to 29 February Original presentation delivered by Sean Botha

2. Contents 1. Total seafood 4. Frozen seafood 5. Chilled natural salmon
Highlights
Chilled & frozen spend & volume
Multiples vs. non-multiples
4. Frozen seafood
Market health check
Branded vs. private label spend
5. Chilled natural salmon
Analysis of weekly volumes
2. Long-term trends
Chilled vs. frozen expenditure
Chilled vs. frozen volume
6. Comparison of proteins
Key performance indicators
3. Total chilled seafood
Market health check
Long-term trends in penetration
Top 5 species
Sector share of spend
7. Hot topics
Hot topic 1: Demographics
Hot topic 2: Shellfish
Hot topic 3: Northern Ireland

3. Total seafood highlights
(52 weeks ending 29 February 2004)
Total seafood - share of spend
Total spend on seafood in multiples is nearly £1.6 billion in the latest year, an increase of 9.6% on last year.
The strongest year-on-year value growth was seen by Tesco, followed by Waitrose and Safeway respectively.
Multiples: 88%
Co-ops: 2%
Independents: 1%
Freezer Centres: 2%
Other non-grocers: 7%
Other non-grocers (which includes fishmongers) experienced a 7% year-on-year decline in spend.
Seafood has the one of the strongest year-on-year growth rates out of all proteins in retail.
Total seafood reached its highest average price over the 4-weekly period ending 04 January 2004, when it reached £7.13 per kg.
+8%
+6%
change since last year
+2%
Spend
Volume
Average price

4. Total Seafood Chilled & frozen spend & volume
Chilled seafood volume is almost as high as frozen, and with the current strong growth rate it is anticipated that chilled seafood volume will exceed frozen before the end of 2004.

5. Total Seafood Multiples vs. non-multiples (expenditure)
Multiples (which includes M&S and Iceland) have increased their share of the total seafood market spend by 10%, while non-multiples lost 1%. Tesco hold the greatest share of spend and have seen the highest growth, with Sainsbury’s following closely. Strong growth rates for Asda means they are gaining market share on Marks and Spencer.
Total spend
£1.56 billion
£1.65 billion
£1.79 billion
* Please note that Marks & Spencer and Iceland are included in ‘Total Multiples’

6. Long-term trends Chilled vs. frozen expenditure
Chilled seafood expenditure exceeded frozen in 1996, but growth remained relatively static until From 1992 to 2003, chilled seafood expenditure has more than doubled and now stands at over £1 billion. Frozen seafood expenditure declined by £10 million over the period , but has since recovered.
* Annual data is up to end of December/start of January.

7. Long-term trends Chilled vs. frozen volume
Frozen seafood volume remains higher than chilled, but is currently in decline (year-on-year). Chilled volume is expected to surpass frozen before the end of 2004 if the current rising trend continues.

8. Total chilled seafood Market health check
The increased expenditure on chilled seafood is a result of consumers purchasing more expensive chilled seafood more frequently
Expenditure (£000's)
Change Vs last year
Volume (tonnes)
Price (£/kg)
Penetration (%)
Avg Weight of Purchase (kg)
Frequency of Purchase
Volume per Trip (kg)
1,057,420
+11%
138,129
7.66
+4%
+6% 82 7 +1
+3%
15 times/yr
0.5
+1%
52 w/e 29 Feb 04

9. Total Chilled seafood Long-term trends in penetration (%)
5 years ago 19 million households were buying chilled seafood in a year; between 1999 and 2001, 860,000 new households started buying chilled seafood. In the last year, over 20 million households have purchased a type of chilled seafood at least once.
NB! Calculations based on 24.5 million GB households

10. Total chilled seafood Top five species - spend, volume & average price
(% change vs. last year)
Although salmon accounts for the highest share of chilled seafood spend (31%), Prawns have gained share in the last year and now account for a 12%share.
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

11. Total chilled seafood Sector share of spend and yr-on-yr change
Added value seafood and chilled shellfish are driving growth in total chilled seafood spend; added value seafood is now the second largest sector in spend share terms.
Share of expenditure by sector
% expenditure change 04 vs 03
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04

12. Total frozen seafood Market health check
During the first 2 months of 2004, frozen seafood volumes recovered from their decline. Although less people are buying frozen seafood less often, higher volumes are purchased at each shopping trip (possibly due to promotions).
Expenditure (£000's)
Change Vs last year
Volume (tonnes)
Price (£/kg)
Penetration (%)
Avg Weight of Purchase (kg)
Frequency of Purchase
Volume per Trip (kg)
728,681
+5%
143,203
5.09
n/c
+4%
88.6
-1%
+1%
11 times/yr
+2%
6.6
0.6
TNS Superpanel, w/e 29 Feb 04

13. Total Frozen Seafood Expenditure - Branded vs private label
Private label frozen seafood expenditure has increased by 12% since last year; the share between branded and private label frozen seafood is now almost the same. Looking at the 4 months since the start of November 2003, private label share of spend has actually exceeded branded (52% vs. 48%).

14. Chilled natural salmon 3-year comparison of weekly volumes (tonnes)
The effect of the salmon scare on the chilled natural salmon in retail market seems to have continued into February. Weekly volumes for the week ending 08-Feb-04 were 38% lower than the same week the previous year, however the volumes have since recovered. Please note that the drop in volumes cannot be solely attributed to the negative press coverage.
Negative press hit
-12%
-38%
% change 2004 v 2003
+22%
-20%

15. Comparison of proteins Key performance indicators
Total seafood is the second largest protein in terms of expenditure and penetration, (after chicken) and commands the highest average price.
Total seafood
Primary beef
Primary lamb
Primary chicken
Primary pork
Expenditure (£ million)
1,778
1,435
513
3,009
432
Volume (KG million)
280.4
289.9
89.5
739.4
158.6
Avg price (£/kg)
£6.34
£4.95
£5.73
£3.41
£4.10
Penetration (% of GB population)
67.9
56.9
23.5
80.7 38
AWP volume (grammes)
1,211
1,595
1,196
2,875
1,310
*Percentage of GB population purchasing over 4 weeks ending 04-Jan-04
TNS Superpanel
52 w/e 04-Jan-04
† Volume (grammes) purchased over 4 weeks ending 04-Jan-04

16. Hot Topics
Northern Ireland
Demographics
Shellfish

17. Demographics Demographic map of selected fish types
Chilled salmon appeals to more consumers in social classes ABC1 than frozen salmon. Chilled natural white fish has less appeal for consumers of younger ages than frozen white fish.
Younger & lower social class
Young & higher social class
Total frozen fish
TOTAL GB POPULATION
Total frozen white fish
Total frozen natural salmon
% of population aged years
Total frozen salmon
Total chilled salmon
Total chilled fish
Total chilled natural salmon
Total frozen natural white fish
Total chilled white fish
Older & lower social class
Older & higher social class
Total chilled natural white fish
% of population in social classes ABC1

18. Demographics Fish - volume share by size of household
More households with 5+ members prefer to buy frozen natural white fish than total fish. Overall, 2-member households buy the majority of fish, and this is particularly the case in the chilled sector.
Chilled natural white fish
Frozen natural white fish
TOTAL FISH
Chilled natural salmon
Frozen natural salmon
1 member
2 members
3 members
4 members
5+ members

19. Demographics Demographic map of selected shellfish types
Chilled natural warm water prawns are mostly purchased by consumers in social classes ABC1; these consumers tend to be younger than purchases of frozen natural warm water prawns.
Younger & lower social class
Younger & higher social class
Total frozen fish
Total frozen natural shellfish
Total frozen shellfish
TOTAL GB POPULATION
Total frozen natural cold water prawns
Total chilled shellfish
Total chilled natural cold water prawns
Total chilled natural warm water prawns
% of population aged years
Total frozen natural warm water prawns
Older & lower social class
Total chilled fish
Older & higher social class
% of population in social classes ABC1

20. Demographics Regional volume share of selected seafood
In general consumers living in London purchase the largest share of fish volumes in GB, followed by the Midlands and Lancashire. Chilled seafood is particularly popular in London, while frozen seafood is favoured more by consumers in Lancashire.
Total volume (tonnes)
24,280
6,149
107,772
15,484
22,124
22,124
143,203
138,139
281,332
TNS Superpanel, w/e 29 Feb 04

21. Shellfish Key performance indicators of top chilled species
Total chilled shellfish
Total prawns
Total crab sticks
Total mussels
Total crab
Expenditure (£ million)
183.7
130.1
19.1
11.2
8.9
% change
+20%
+28%
+3%
+18%
-13%
Volume (KG million)
21.7
12.6
4.7
2.5
0.9
% change
+10%
+15%
+3%
+17%
-21%
Avg price (£/kg)
8.47
10.32
4.10
4.56
9.53
% change
+9%
+11%
N/C
+1%
+11%
Penetration (% of GB population)
45.4
36.9
13.7 7
4.3
% change
% change
+2%
+4%
-6%
+8%
-21%
AWP volume (grammes)
1,952
1,393
1,387
1,427
884
% change
% change
+8%
+10%
+10%
+8%
-1%
N/C = No Change
TNS Superpanel
52 w/e 29-Feb-04

22. Shellfish Key performance indicators of top frozen species
Total frozen shellfish
Total prawns
Total scampi
Total lobster
Total calamari
Expenditure (£ million)
171.9
117
45.5
4.3
1.3
% change
+11%
+13%
+15%
+20%
-18%
Volume (KG million)
24.3
17.4
5.2
0.4
0.3
% change
-4%
-4%
+8%
+18%
-48%
Avg price (£/kg)
7.08
4.17
8.69
9.74
4.68
% change
+16%
-15%
+6%
+2%
+58%
Penetration (% of GB population)
50.3
41.9
19.6
3.2
1.3
% change
% change
-4%
-6%
+1%
+34%
-39%
AWP volume (grammes)
1,971
1,697
1,088
554
854
% change
% change
N/C
+2%
+7%
-12%
-15%
N/C = No Change
TNS Superpanel
52 w/e 29-Feb-04
Data refers to TOTAL shellfish by species

23. Shellfish Volume trends of natural chilled prawns by type
Volumes of natural chilled warm water prawns have increased over the last three years; over the 4-weeks ending 07 December 2003, they reached their highest ever level of volume sales (341 tonnes). Natural chilled cold water prawns still represent the largest share of natural chilled prawn volumes (63%over the latest 4-week period).
2001
2002
2003
2004
* Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be identified as cold or warm water.

24. Shellfish Volume trends of natural frozen prawns by type
Trends of natural frozen prawns are more erratic, possibly as a result of higher promotion activity. Higher sales occur over the Christmas and Easter periods.
A small proportion of frozen warm water prawns are purchased in the retail sector (59 tonnes over the latest 4-weekly period).
2001
2002
2003
2004
* Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be identified as cold or warm water.

25. Northern Ireland Key performance indicators
Growth in spend on seafood in Northern Ireland is strong, particularly in the chilled sector. Chilled smoked fish represents 28% share of chilled spend (16% of total spend), and increased sales by 109% since last year - total spend came to just over £7 million for the year ending 29 February 2004.
Total seafood
Chilled
Frozen
Expenditure (£ million)
44.5
25.5
18.9
% change vs previous year
+14%
+32%
-4%
Volume (KG million)
6.8
3.1
3.6
% change vs previous year
+6%
+28%
-8%
Avg price (£/kg)
6.58
8.19
5.21
% change vs previous year
+8%
+3%
+4%
Penetration (% of GB population)
96.1
73.8
88.2
% change vs previous year
+2%
-1%
+5%
AWP volume (grammes)
11,916
7,162
6,995
% change vs previous year
+8%
+3%
+4%
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

26. Northern Ireland Total seafood value & volume share
In both NI and ROI chilled seafood has increased its share of the market from last year, based on greater growth rates relative to the frozen sector. The situation changes across markets with respect to expenditure, chilled seafood accounting for the greater share.
1,786,101
281,332
44,452
6,755
133,378
14,658
Frozen
Chilled
Value
Volume
Value
Volume
Value
Volume
Great Britain
N. Ireland
R. of Ireland
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

27. Northern Ireland Volume (tonnes) of chilled seafood species
Salmon is responsible for the greatest share of the chilled market, also experiencing considerable growth in the last year. Although Prawns/Scampi hold a smaller share of volume, growth has been impressive. Total chilled smoked fish species have performed extremely well in the latest year, increasing volume sales by 87% to 716 tonnes.
22%
87%
15%
60% = 2% 1% 1%
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04

28. For further information please contact:
Sean Botha
Market Insight Executive