1. DCFPC Food Study Presentation
Dominic Modicamore
Tracy Jefferson
4 October 2017

2. Outline Overview of work plan and tasks Where are we now Future tasks
Direct food industry employment trends in DC by sector
Identifying emerging growth sectors
Next steps
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

3. DC Food Policy Project Work Plan / Tasks
Task 1: Project Kickoff & Task 1: Review of Existing Economic Data
Draft Methodology sections of Tasks 1 and 2.1 along with schedule for data analysis and the timeline for the entire study and strategy development.
Draft list of NAICS industry sector codes and associated data to be included in the analysis.
Review and validate DCOP’s background food economic data and identify any additional data needed for further analysis.
Task 2: Washington DC Food Industry Cluster – Analysis of Trends and economic and fiscal Impact
Collect data, analyze trends, run economic model, and draft findings for the economic and fiscal benefits associated with the local food economy in DC and the region
Task 3: Surveys & Interviews with DC Food Industry Cluster Businesses
Receive DCFPC recommendations of individuals/businesses in targeted clusters to engage in interview and/or survey
Conduct interviews and multi-modal surveys
Develop a key findings memo that summarizes transcripts and survey outputs.
Task 4: In-Depth Description of District of Columbia Food Industry Cluster Businesses
Develop and deliver data tables, graphs, and narrative describing the DC food economy cluster past trends, identify the potential for growth, importance to the District’s economic vitality (compared to other clusters), and relationship to regional food industry.
Task 5: Food Industry Cluster Graphic Map & Presentation of Findings
Draft Food Industry Cluster Graphic Map, summary of linkages, and identification of gaps in local cluster
Present Food Industry Cluster Graphic Map and facilitate a discussion/cluster mapping exercise with DCFPC, business owners and other stakeholders.
Task 6: Prepare a Final Report of Findings and Recommendations
Draft Food Economy Study & Strategy report.
Obtain DCOP/DCFPC feedback on Food Economy Study & Strategy report.
Finalize and submit 25 high-quality copies of final Food Economy Study & Strategy report and supplemental materials.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

4. Food Manufacturing Employment Change Percent Change NAICS Industry
Employment
Change
Percent Change
NAICS
Industry
2001
2006
2011
2016
311
Food manufacturing
376
278
126
366
-10
311351
Confectionery manufacturing from cacao beans 5 -
311352
Confectionery mfg. from purchased chocolate 18 17
-13
-73%
311421
Fruit and vegetable canning 12
311811
Retail bakeries
159
110 42 84
-74
-47%
311812
Commercial bakeries
186
119 25
132
-54
-29%
311813
Frozen cakes and other pastries manufacturing
311920
Coffee and tea manufacturing 61
311991
Perishable prepared food manufacturing 38 57
311999
All other miscellaneous food manufacturing 13 -8
-60%
As with much of Manufacturing in DC, food manufacturing is very limited in the city. Two food manufacturing sectors that have developed in the past 10 years in DC are coffee and tea and perishable prepared foods.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

5. Beverage Product Manufacturing
Employment
Change
Percent Change
NAICS
Industry
2001
2006
2011
2016
312
Beverage product manufacturing 5 37
146
141
2814%
312111
Soft drink manufacturing -
312120
Breweries 28
104 99
1978%
312130
Wineries
312140
Distilleries 9 32
As with food manufacturing, beverage product manufacturing is a small industry in DC, but breweries such as DC Brau and others have been growing at a rapid pace in the past five years.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

6. Grocery and Related Product Wholesalers
Employment
Change
Percent Change
NAICS
Industry
2001
2006
2011
2016
4244
Grocery and related product wholesalers
780
809
736
658
-122
424410
General line grocery merchant wholesalers
105
147
130
146 41
39%
424420
Packaged frozen food merchant wholesalers 9 5 0%
424430
Dairy product merchant wholesalers 14
424440
Poultry product merchant wholesalers 17 10
424450
Confectionery merchant wholesalers 44 30
-15
-33%
424460
Fish and seafood merchant wholesalers 85
124 79
106 21
25%
424470
Meat and meat product merchant wholesalers
167
196
135 90
-76
-46%
424480
Fruit and vegetable merchant wholesalers
166 67 82 46
-121
-72%
424490
Other grocery product merchant wholesalers
185
229
278
212 27
15%
Wholesaling is also a relatively small industry in DC and grocery related wholesale has declined as a whole over the past 15 years in the city. General line grocery merchant wholesalers is, however, one wholesaling sector that has grown in DC, which may be related to the large growth in national grocers in the city.
Many of the wholesalers that supply DC grocers are located in the surrounding metro area, particularly in Maryland.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

7. Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers
Employment
Change
Percent Change
NAICS
Industry
2001
2006
2011
2016
4245
Farm product raw material merchant wholesalers 9 11 26 17
191%
424510
Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers - 0%
424590
Other farm product raw material merch. whls.
Given DC’s very limited agricultural industry, the farm product raw material merchant wholesale sector is not surprisingly very small.
The growth in small urban farms and Community Supported Agriculture (CSA), however, likely led to the establishment of three small wholesalers in the other farm product raw material merchant wholesaling sector in DC in 2016, employing 17 people.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

8. Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers, Farm Supply
Employment
Change
Percent Change
NAICS
Industry
2001
2006
2011
2016
Alcoholic beverage merchant wholesalers, Farm Supply
568
590
541
689
121
21%
424810
Beer and ale merchant wholesalers
143
197
360
418
275
192%
424820
Wine and spirit merchant wholesalers
416
384
173
261
-155
-37%
424910
Farm supplies merchant wholesalers 9 - 0%
Beer and ale merchant wholesalers in DC have seen significant growth over the past 10 years, likely a result of the growth in local breweries
After a decline in wine and spirt merchant wholesalers between 2001 and 2001, this sector has rebounded in between and 2016, adding almost 90 jobs
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

9. Food and Beverage Stores, Farm Supply Stores, Vending
NAICS
Industry
Employment
2001
2006
2011
2016
Change
Percent Change
Food and beverage stores, Farm supply, Vending
5,541
5,621
6,617
8,125
2,584
47%
444220
Nursery, garden, and farm supply stores 25 27 43 36 11
45%
445110
Supermarkets and other grocery stores
3,817
3,618
4,433
5,058
1,241
33%
445120
Convenience stores
327
532
873
1,193
866
265%
445210
Meat markets 68 93 77
116 48
71%
445220
Fish and seafood markets 90 73 39 72
-18
-20%
445230
Fruit and vegetable markets (includes farmers markets) 79 46 22 18
-61
-78%
445291
Baked goods stores 80 31
173
171 91
114%
445292
Confectionery and nut stores 50 56 76 26
52%
445299
All other specialty food stores
123
314 81
500
377
308%
445310
Beer, wine, and liquor stores
718
700
647
727 9 1%
446191
Food, health, supplement stores 84 71
102 17
20%
454210
Vending machine operators 67
100 59
-22
-28%
Food retailing has experienced significant growth in DC over the past 10 years, led by supermarkets, convenience stores, and specialty food stores. As a whole this industry has grown in DC by almost 2,600 workers since 2001.
Supermarkets have led the way in overall growth. After a small decline of 200 workers between 2001 and 2006, supermarkets have added 1,440 workers in the past 10 years. This has been led by the growth in national grocery chains in the city, such as Whole Foods, Trader Joes, and Safeway. Much of this growth is likely the result of the large population growth in DC over the past 10 years.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

10. Food Service and Drinking Places
NAICS
Industry
Employment
2001
2006
2011
2016
Change
Percent Change
722, 551
Food services and drinking places
29,761
34,284
42,004
53,813
24,052
81%
722310
Food service contractors
3,661
3,650
3,550
5,025
1,364
37%
722320
Caterers
1,954
1,972
2,344
2,171
218
11%
722330
Mobile food services (includes food trucks) 85 24
122
259
174
205%
722410
Drinking places, alcoholic beverages
1,106
1,242
1,861
2,498
1,392
126%
722511
Full-service restaurants
14,385
17,153
21,499
27,804
13,419
93%
722513
Limited-service restaurants (includes fast casual)
6,019
7,462
10,043
12,945
6,925
115%
722514
Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets
381
737
433
555
46%
722515
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars
1,933
1,809
1,902
2,374
440
23%
624210
Community food services
236
235
250
182
-54
-23%
551114
Managing offices (Restaurant groups)
Data from DC Licenses
Food and drinking places, DC’s largest food economy sector, has also experienced significant growth in the city over the past 15 years, almost doubling the number of workers during this time period. The employment data clearly shows the rapid growth in restaurants (full-service and limited-service), drinking places, and food trucks.
Full-service restaurants is by far the largest sector in the food service industry in DC and has led the overall growth in number of workers, adding over 13,400 workers in just 15 years. The growth in this sector has been most prominent in the past 5 years, when DC added 6,000 workers in full-service restaurants in that time period.
Limited-services restaurants have grown at a slightly faster pace than full-service, however, represent a significantly smaller number of workers. DC has been a leader in the fast casual concept, being home to a number of new start-ups in this category, many of which have expanded regionally and nationally.
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017

11. Next Steps Economic Impact Analysis
Complete data collection for remaining direct food subsectors and tier two sectors.
Develop inputs for economic model
Run model to estimate the economic and fiscal impact of the DC food economy and regional
Identify key findings and opportunities for growth
Interviews and Surveys
Finalize questions for interviews and surveys
Schedule and conduct interviews and surveys
Code and analyze interview/survey results
Develop a report if key findings
DCFPC Meeting 10/4/2017