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Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Forecasting biology at end-user relevant time-scales Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk.

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Presentation on theme: "Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Forecasting biology at end-user relevant time-scales Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork
Marine Ecological Climate Services Forecasting biology at end-user relevant time-scales Mark R Payne @MarkPayneAtWork

2 What needs to be predicted?
Tommasi et al 2017 Prog. Ocean.

3 Can we forecast marine ecological systems in a way that is useful to end-users?

4 Seasonal-scale forecasting of the ocean is a reality
NMME Ensemble, SST Hindcast Correlation skill, 5 months lead

5 Decadal-scale forecasting of the ocean is a reality
Matei et al. J. Clim. 2012 MPI-ESM-LR Model, SST Hindcast Correlation skill, 2-5 years lead

6 Current operational forecast systems

7 e.g. Phenology Forecasts Gulf of Maine Lobster Forecasts

8 Case Study End Users Pelagic Freezer Trawler Association (NL)
Timing of herring spawning in English channel Distribution of Mackerel Danish Pelagic Producers Organisation (DK) Timing of reappearance of sandeel after winter Scientific groups responsible for monitoring and giving management advice on fish quotas

9 Some challenges thus far
How do we motivate end-users? How to communicate the potential of this idea? How to put a century of failed forecasting efforts behind us? Distinction between climate-services for science and climate-services for industry

10 Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork
Marine Ecological Climate Services Prediction of marine ecological quantities on seasonal and decadal time-scale is possible Basis for novel and end-user-relevant climate services Mark R Payne @MarkPayneAtWork

11

12 Initial Value vs Boundary Value

13 Convergence of initialised and uninitialised models

14 Contributions to predictability

15 Potential Predictability

16 Feel the fear and do it anyway

17 Proportion of years with suitable habitat
Can we forecast habitat?

18 Gulf of Australia Tuna Forecasts - Seasonal
SST Habitat

19 Blue whiting distribution
Important feed for aquaculture Third largest fishery in the world in 2004. Spawning region

20 Observed distribution of blue whiting
Expanded distribution Compacted distribution Observed distribution of blue whiting 2007 2013 Cold & Fresh Warm & Saline

21 Blue Whiting habitat forecast system
Basis for decadal forecasts of distribution Correlation expanded compacted Lead time [years] Design of monitoring programme

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