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Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?

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Presentation on theme: "Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?
Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat

2 Why should we care about?
Coherence of the results in multi-country projections Socio-economic convergence (focus on the EU) Convergence in demography Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

3 Concepts of convergence
Sigma-convergence: Beta-convergence (Barro regression): Gamma-convergence: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

4 Further concepts of convergence
Conditional beta-convergence: Convergence clubs: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

5 Relative convergence Convergence towards a defined set of countries / value. Index of relative convergence: Coefficient of relative convergence: Decomposition: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

6 The analysis Two hypothesis: Two indicators of fertility:
Convergence across European countries as a whole Convergence of “new” MSs towards the “old” MSs Two indicators of fertility: Total fertility rate (TFR) Mean age at childbearing (MAC) Various statistics: Coefficient of variation (sigma-convergence) Coefficient of Barro regression (beta-convergence) Kendall indexes of rank concordance (gamma-convergence) Coefficient of variation for relative convergence Coefficient of relative convergence Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

7 Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: TFR
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

8 Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: MAC
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

9 Fertility β-convergence in Europe: TFR
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

10 Fertility β-convergence in Europe: MAC
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

11 Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: TFR
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

12 Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: MAC
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

13 Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-6
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

14 Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-9
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

15 Fertility relative convergence in the EU-9
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

16 Conclusions on fertility convergence
Absolute convergence occurred in the past in Europe Future developments difficult to foresee as: Alternation of convergence/divergence in the past (cycles) Stationarity on the most recent past Conditional convergence and/or convergence clubs need to be explored No clear evidence about relative convergence towards EU values but may be supported because: only short time series are available (new) policy efforts exchange of best practises Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

17 Implications for assumptions setting
Possible option: (relative) convergence to theoretical values Extrapolation of convergence indicators for testing speed of convergence Hypothetical example of extrapolation: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

18 Thanks for your attention!
Further questions? Do not hesitate to contact: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 2010

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