1. GNOSTIC ANALYSIS Applications to Experimental Data
from Monitoring and Research
Pavel KOVANIC, Tomas OCELKA
Roman GRABIC, Mark RIEDER
CZECH REPUBLIC
Presentation of the paper “Gnostic Analysis: A Novel Approach for Univariate and Multivariate Data Analysis”, The 9th World Multi-Conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, July 10-13, 2005, Orlando, Florida, USA
Full paper in Proceedings 2005 WMSCI 2005, Vol. VI, pp. 289

2. SPECIFICS of MATHEMATICAL GNOSTICS
Theory of individual data
and small data samples
Realistic assumptions
Uncertainty: a lack of knowledge
“Let data speak for themselves”
Results maximizing information
Natural robustness

3. Comparison of two approaches

4. Scientific base

5. ADVANCED DATA ANALYSIS
Robust probability distributions instead of point estimates
Robust multidimensional (MD) models

6. GNOSTIC DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS I
No a priori model (everything from data)
Maximum information
Robustness in estimation of:
Scale and location parameters
Bounds of data support
Bounds of membership

7. GNOSTIC DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS II
Data homogeneity tests
Marginal cluster analysis
Cross-section filtering
Applicability to censored data
Applicability to heteroscedastic data

8. ROBUST MD-MODELS and comparability of objects
MD cluster analysis
and comparability of objects
MD ordering of objects’ positions
MD monitoring of time series
MD evaluating/rating of objects
MD diagnostics of objects

9. EXAMPLES of APPLICATIONS
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS:
The 2-nd part of the presentation
MD MODELS: NOW

10. MD-ORDERING: Three firms

11. MD-ORDERING: Keane Inc.

12. Market generates chaos

13. MD-Monitoring 2 (model changes)

14. Diesel cars ordered by utility

15. Impacts on car prices

16. Environmental applications
Tomas Ocelka,
Institute of Public Health Ostrava
Czech Republic

17. Current Status of Environmental data
Small data sets
Economic limitations
Each measurement has unique character
Too few parameters for description of sufficient impact assessment (health/environmental)
Optimization of truly demanding data is required
Historical data, if used, has different methodological approaches => uncertainty sources
Methodological comparisons are must
Lack of data is a new challenge for (N-variate) data analysis
Statistical approach – is applicable to the „large“ data sets
New approaches – Gnostic analysis – can play important role in Environmental and Health Impact Assessments

18. Overall process of assessment
Comparison
(QA/QC)
Env./Health
Status
Health impact
Environmental impact
Limits

19. Biotic and abiotic indicators
Mussels (e.g. Dreissena polymorpha)
Fish
Bivalves
Benthic organisms
Exposure
SPMD
DGT
Continual / integral sample
TWA (timely weighted average)
Bio-accumulation
Bio-concentration
Reflect of large sample quantity
Only diluted phase
Toxicological significance

20. Case studies
Bio-monitoring of POPs and heavy metals in Czech Rivers (NIP for Stockholm Convention)
Biotic (chemicals)
SPMDs (chemicals, toxicity)
Monitoring of POPs – in glacial (mineral) water
Bio-monitoring of POPs around Spolana chemical
plant
POPs remediation plant
Ambient air monitoring of PAHs and dust, including Genotoxicity effects evaluation

21. Applications description
A comparison for metals
HM (As) in Fish – NO censoring
HM (As) in Fish – Censoring applied
HM (As) - various Sampling methods
A comparison for organics
3 locations (Labe river, p.p-DDD)
4 sampling methods (Labe river, p.p-DDD)
The Final Countdown…
Hg – overall control for 16 rivers
p.p-DDD – overall time profile for 3 years
(14 sampling points)

22. Rivers – Fish – NO censoring

23. Rivers: Fish – Censoring applied

24. Rivers: comparison of SM

25. Organic, 3 sampling points

26. Comparison of SM

27. Hg – overview of contamination

28. Organic, profile of contamination

29. Conclusions
Gnostic analysis exhibits promising results for data interpretation, providing maximal information (by GDF, USB, LSB, etc…)
Distribution functions gives us strong application potential for prediction as well as on-line diagnostic measured data
Applications of Gnostic programs are based on available environment S-PlusTM; StatisticaTM is under development)

30. Future intentions in research
To issue a book about Gnostic approach (728 pages); under litigation for print
Extension of developed Gnostic programs for other platforms, using GUI
Involvement to all practical and typical applications
Continue in development of research team for wider applications (to be published)

31. Acknowledgement Mentioned authority for data: CHMI, www.chmi.cz
Grant Agency CR for supporting project (No. 203/04/1457 ),
NRL for POPs team for excellent analytical work and methods development

32. … thank you for your attention!
For any further information – do not hesitate contacting us…..
Gnostic