1. ENTSO-E Winter outlook 17-18

2. Different risks addressed in different time frames
5-10 years
Investment decisions
ENTSO-E Mid-term adequacy forecast
6 months
Operational decisions
ENTSO-E Winter Outlook
1 week
Operational decisions close to real time
RSC Week ahead
Uncertainty decreases

3. ENTSO-E Winter Outlook – different analyses
Data collected from TSOs
Pan-European Climate database
Deterministic analysis
Whole winter (Wednesday 19:00 CET)
Normal and severe conditions
Country and Pan-European level
Sensitivity: with and without strategic reserves
Probabilistic analysis
Pan-European level
Most constrained weeks

4. Evolution of European generation mix
New RES installations compensate the decommissioning of conventional power plants. However, the characteristics are different.

5. Adequacy under severe conditions
Week 2 and 3 are the most constrained

6. Probabilistic analysis of week 2
Belgium
France
1,3% probability of adequacy issue when temperature (-10°C) and wind (0,3) are low
3,5% probability of adequzacy issue when temperature (-5°C) is low

7. Belgium
With the extension of forced outage of Doel 3, import need up to 2GW not unlikely in case of cold wave
The Belgian power system expects no adequacy issues for winter 2017/2018 due to a better availability of the production park compared to winter 2016/2017. For winter 2017/2018, Belgium still has 725 MW of strategic reserves contracted in case of scarcity situations.

8. France Import need up to 9,5GW at national peak in case of a cold wave
France expects the situation to be better than last year, as the nuclear maintenance plan is back to the average availability of the last 10 years. Yet, the margins are tighter than two years ago with the shutdown of more than 4 GW of fossil oil plants in 2017.

9. Conclusion
In comparison with last winter, the predictions are better thanks to a better availability of generation in BE and FR.
With average thermal availability in FR, FR needs import up to 10GW, from which 4GW from CWE simultaneous with BE (competition FR-BE!).
In January new price spikes in Belgium are possible and activation of strategic reserve cannot be excluded in case of severe conditions!
For Belgium, as last winter, load shedding remains unlikely.
elia presentation template / City, / Firstname Lastname