1. Longman PoliticalScienceInteractive
Magleby & Light
Government by the People
Chapter 8
Campaigns and Elections
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2. Elections: The Rules of the Game
Elections are held at fixed intervals that cannot be changed by the party in power
Terms are fixed and, for some offices, staggered
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3. Running For President Stage 1: The Nomination
Campaigning begins well before any declaration of candidacy, as candidates try to:
Line up supporters to win caucuses or primaries in key states (New Hampshire and Iowa)
Raise money for their nomination effort
Mobilize "activist" base of supporters
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4. Running For President Stage 1: The Nomination
Primaries: state by state elections held by parties to select a candidate
Beauty contest – (no delegates selected)
Caucuses and state primaries – (delegates selected)
"Frontloading" – states move to hold primaries earlier and earlier
"Super Tuesday" – many states hold a primary on the same day (first Tuesday in March)
Systems
Proportional representation
Winner takes all
Delegate selection without a commitment to a candidate
(super delegates)
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5. The Presidential Campaign: Typical Campaign Organization
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6. Campaign Strategies Selecting a theme Negative Campaigning
Using focus groups and polling
News management
Paid advertising
Seeking free airtime
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7. Running For President Stage 2: The National Party Convention
A national meeting of delegates elected in primaries, caucuses, or state conventions who assemble once every four years to nominate candidates for president and vice president, ratify the party platform, elect officers, and adopt rules
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8. The Vice Presidential Nominee
Presidential candidates usually submit
their choice for vice president in the run-up to the party’s national convention
Goal is often to "balance the ticket"
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9. Running For President Stage 3: The General Election
- Debates
- TV and Radio Advertising
- Candidates "move to the center" to attract more votes
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10. The Electoral College Why it exists: How it works:
The framers did not trust the choice of president to a direct vote of the people
How it works:
Each state legislature is free to determine how to select its electors
Each party nominates a slate of electors, usually longtime party workers
In 48 states, candidates who win a plurality of the popular vote secure all of that state’s electoral votes
In NB and ME, electoral votes are allocated to the winner of each congressional district plus two electoral votes for the winner of the state as a whole
Candidates tend to campaign in large, competitive ("swing") states
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11. The Electoral College • 270 electoral votes needed to win
• If no candidate gets a majority of the electoral votes, the House chooses among the top three candidates
Occurred in 1800 and 1824
• Makes it possible for a presidential candidate to win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote
Occurred in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016
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12. The Electoral College
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13. Reforming the Electoral College
Should we use a direct popular election instead of the electoral college?
Pros
Cons
Give every voter the same weight in presidential balloting
Winners would have greater legitimacy
Third parties would have more incentive to run
Plan would undermine federalism
Unrestrained majority rule
Populous states would lose influence
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14. The House of Representatives
Mounting a primary campaign
Raising money
Building a personal organization
Appealing to the "base" or activists
Campaigning for the general election
Candidate appeal
National tide
Name recognition
Appealing to the center or mainstream
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15. The Senate Costs more than House races, but cost varies by state
More likely than House seats to be seriously contested
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16. U.S. House Incumbents Reelected 1960-2008
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17. House Reelection Rates 1964-2016
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18. Senate Reelection Rates 1964-2016
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19. Primary Elections Caucus Closed Open Blanket
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20. Incumbency Advantage franking privilege (free mail) staff in place
committee service to district
name recognition
casework done for constituents
pork barrel projects for district
"war chest" built up already
flow of money
gerrymandered districts (safe seats)
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21. Safe and Competitive House Seats, 2000-2008
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22. The Gerrymander
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23. Packing
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24. Cracking
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25. Democrats Gerrymander...
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26. ...and so do Republicans
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27. "Earmuff" district in Illinois
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28. Shaw v. Reno (re-drawn)
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29. Four ways to draw districts
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30. Effects of a Winner-Takes-All, Single-Member District System
• Wasted-vote syndrome
• Reinforcement of moderate and centrist
candidates
• Difficult for minor parties to get elected
• Close races decided by swing voters
• Gerrymandered districts
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31. Proportional Representation
An election system in which each party running receives the proportion of legislative seats corresponding to its proportion of the vote
Benefits:
More accurately reveals the division of voter preferences
Gives those who do not vote with the plurality some influence as a result of their vote
Problems:
May make it harder to have a clear winner
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32. Total Costs of Elections 1998-2016
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33. Money in U.S. Elections Watergate
The 1972 Watergate scandal led to the discovery that large amounts of money from corporations and individuals were “laundered” in secret bank accounts outside the country and used by Nixon’s campaign for political and campaign uses
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34. Efforts at Reform
Three strategies used to prevent abuse in political contributions
Imposing limitations on giving, receiving, and spending political money
Disclosure laws
Governmental subsidies
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35. The Federal Election Campaign Act
Serious campaign finance reform began in the 1970s with the Federal Election Campaign Act (1971 and 1974)
Buckley v. Valeo (1976) challenged the constitutionality of campaign finance limits
individual donations can be limited (chance of corruption)
overall spending cannot be limited (free speech)
Now, politicians must get small amounts of money from many sources, with an exception for money from political parties (“soft” money).
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36. Soft Money Money donated to a political party, not a candidate
Between 1998 and 2002, soft money contributions more than doubled
Soft money enabled large donors to be major players in campaign finance
Mostly banned by BCRA
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37. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act - BCRA (2002)
• Largely banned party soft money
• Restored prohibition on corporations and labor unions for using general treasury funds for electoral purposes
• Prohibited all corporations, both for-profit and not-for-profit, and unions from broadcasting “electioneering communications” within 60 days of a general election (struck down in 2010 by Citizens United v. FEC)
Senators John McCain (R-Ariz) and Russell Feingold (D-Wisc), sponsors of the BCRA
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38. PACs Defined under FECA Political Action Committees
Collects campaign contributions from members and distributes them to favored candidates
May donate $5,000 per candidate per election or $15,000 to party
May make unlimited independent expenditures
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39. Independent Expenditures
Defined as speech that expressly advocates the election or defeat of a candidate.
Buckley v. Valeo (1976):
Individuals/groups have “First Amendment” right to spend as much money as they wish
BCRA Restrictions:
Must be truly independent of the candidate
May not use corporate or union money
(ruled invalid by Citizens United case)
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40. Issue Advocacy Advertising
Promoting/attacking candidates without explicitly saying “vote for” or “vote against”
Surged in 1996
Sometimes have spent more than the candidates did themselves
Often called 527 organizations
Often more negative than the ads run by candidates
Not banned by BCRA
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41. Super PACs Resulted from Citizens United ruling
Officially known as "independent-expenditure only committees"
May not make contributions to a candidate's campaign or parties
May engage in unlimited political spending independent of a candidate
Individuals, unions and corporations may contribute to Super PACs
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42. Current Contribution Limits
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43. Rising Campaign Costs in Congressional General Elections
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44. Continuing Problems with Campaign Finance
Rising costs of campaigns
Declining competition
Increasing dependence on PACs and wealthy donors
Candidates’ personal wealth
Growth in individual contributions, Super PACs and use of the Internet to fund campaigns
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