1. The end of ODL as we know it
The end of ODL as we know it? Making sense of the future nature and impact of Open Distance Learning (ODL)
By Dr Paul Prinsloo
Directorate: Curriculum and Learning Development

2. Shift happens

3. Acknowledgement: EPIC 2020(
NMC Horizon Reports
Other sources

4. Overview of the presentation
Disclaimer
In the year 2020…
An overview of developments in higher education since 2008
A short overview of the New Media Consortium’s (NMC’s) New Horizon Reports on trends ( ) in higher education
A summary of some of these trends
(In)conclusions

5. “Knowledge is not an unmixed good; it can be used as much as a curse as a blessing” (Gray, 2004, p. 70).

6. In the year 2020… Most Colleges and Universities will no longer exist
Academia will no longer be the gatekeeper for education
Tuition will be an obsolete concept
Degrees will be irrelevant
In 2020 people will have access to a breath and depth of knowledge unimaginable in an earlier age
Schools as we used to know them will have ceased to exist
Academia’s fortunes will have waned
20th century universities will be an afterthought, a lonely remnant of a not-to-distant past
EPIC

7. An overview of developments since 2008…

8. http://mfeldstein. wpengine. netdna-cdn

9. Fifty shades of Massive (?) Open (?) Online Courses (?) (MOOCs)
The MOOCs are coming (Hermann, 2012)
Fifty shades of Massive (?) Open (?) Online Courses (?) (MOOCs)

10. 2009 Free, low-tech, educational tutorial videos hosted on YouTube
Individualized, computer-based and marked assessment
Evidence of mastery required before you can proceed to the next unit

11. The system measures and informs learning

12. 2010

13. Short(er), just-in-time learning and accreditation - lifelong learning gathers speed

14. 2011

15. Badges become an alternative accreditation to classroom attendance and traditional forms of certification

16. 2011
Sebastian Thrun (Stanford University) offers a free, no prerequisite, ten-week online course “Introduction to Artificial Intelligence (AI) ” to 160,000 students.

17. Students are teaching students

18. 2012 Best students are linked to world-class companies Open enrolment
Students proceed at their own pace
Certificate of competence and since 2012, Pearson’s VUE offers proctored examinations and certification at a price

19. 2012 Free short video lectures on different topics
Free short video lectures on different topics
Online proctoring service that connects proctors and students via webcam at a cost of $60–$90.

20. 2012 https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/142677384/MITX_med.png

21. Curriculum, teaching, support, assessment and accreditation are unbundled

22. OERu Athabasca University, BAOU (Gujarat’s open university),
SUNY Empire State College, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology,
NorthTech Open Polytechnic, Otago Polytechnic,
Southern New Hampshire University,
Thompson Rivers University, University of Canterbury, University of South Africa,
University of Southern Queensland, and the
University of Wollongong.

23. Open content becomes the norm
Open content becomes the norm. The value does not lie in the content, but in the support, accreditation and structure.

24.
A consortium of British Universities for FutureLearn. Participating universities are: Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, East Anglia, Exeter, King’s College London, Lancaster,  Leeds, Southampton, St Andrews and Warwick, along with UK distance-learning organization, the Open University (OU).

25. New alliances, new consortia, new networks of inclusion and exclusion

26. 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp_Lg2YLmOY

27. http://connectnigeria. com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Google

28. WAR

29. Badges replaces degrees
2018
2019
Badges replaces degrees
2019 residential campuses are the playgrounds of the wealthy.
The majority of learning takes place online, just-in-time, anytime, anywhere…

30. 2020 Evolving Personal Information Construct (EPIC)
“EPIC not only understands everything you know, it also knows everything you need to know to be successful in your professional, social and personal life” (EPIC 2020).
2020
“Just-in-time knowledge and information that keeps you current and synchronized with everyone around you” (EPIC 2020)

31. A short overview of the New Media Consortium’s Report on trends

32. Next 12 months
Next 2-3 years
Next 4-5 years
2009
Mobiles
Cloud computing
Geo-everything
Personal web
Semantic aware apps
Smart objects
2010
Mobile computing
Open content
Electronic books
Augmented reality
Gesture-based computing
Visual data analysis
2011
Mobile tech
Game-based learning
Learning analytics
2012
Mobile apps
Tablet computing
Internet of things
2013
Flipped classrooms
MOOCs
3D printing
Flexible displays
Next generation batteries
Wearable technology

33. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Next 12 months Next 2-3 years Next 4-5 years
Mobiles
Cloud computing
Geo-everything
Personal web
Semantic aware apps
Smart objects
2010
Mobile computing
Open content
Electronic books
Augmented reality
Gesture-based computing
Visual data analysis
2011
Mobile tech
Game-based learning
Learning analytics
2012
Mobile apps
Tablet computing
Internet of things
2013
Flipped classrooms
MOOCs
3D printing
Flexible displays
Next generation batteries
Wearable technology

34. A summary of trends…

35. Trend 1
The unbundling of faculty, curriculum, teaching, assessment and accreditation and possibly the unbundling of (public) higher education…

36. Trend 2
Mobile, ubiquitous learning

37. Trend 3
Data-enabled teaching, learning and governance – learning analytics – potential, challenges, and pitfalls
e.g., intelligent tutoring systems

38. Trend 4
Private higher education is expanding rapidly

39. Trend 5
A move towards asynchronous – allowing for just-in-time, when I have the time, when I need it, when I want it learning

40. Trend 6
Changing role of the learning management system (LMS) and increased use and validation of the personal learning environment (PLE)

41. Trend 7
Increase in the number of alliances, consortia, networks, etc

42. In the past
Distance education institutions had the monopoly of a specific market, used technology to reach their students, and offered a bounded experience.
The curriculum was developed and accredited by the institution, its own tenured faculty developed materials, marked assignment and supported the academic needs of students and finally credentialized their learning.
All of this are changing…

43. In(conclusions): In the year 2020
Most Colleges and Universities will no longer exist
Academia will no longer be the gatekeeper for education
Tuition will be an obsolete concept
Degrees will be irrelevant
In 2020 people will have access to a breath and depth of knowledge unimaginable in an earlier age
Schools as we used to know them will have ceased to exist
Academia’s fortunes will have waned
20th century universities will be an afterthought, a lonely remnant of a not-to-distant past (EPIC 2020)

44. It may well be the end of ODL as we know it…

45. Thank you. Ke a leboga. Baie dankie.
Dr Paul Prinsloo
Directorate for Curriculum and Learning Development (DCLD)
TVW
P O Box 392
Unisa, 0003, Republic of South Africa
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