1. Trends in the employment of disabled people in Britain Richard Berthoud Institute for Social and Economic Research University of Essex General Lifestyle Survey User Meeting 23 March 2011

2. Number of working age claimants of benefits on grounds of incapacity for work, 1972-2010

3. Changing benefits Invalidity Benefit: 1971 - 1996 Incapacity Benefit: 1996 - 2008 Employment and Support Allowance: 2008 - ? Non-Contributory Invalidity Pension Housewives’ Non-Contributory Invalidity Pension Severe Disablement Allowance Supplementary Benefit (disabled) Income Support (disability premium) IB ‘credits only’

4. Claimants of three types of benefit on grounds of incapacity, 1972-2008

5. General issues: 1 Incapable of work – or denied a job? The medical model of disability: impairments reduce productivity The social model of disability: employers’ working practices exclude impaired people from participation ‘Impairments’ labels the things someone cannot do because of their physical or mental condition. ‘Disability’ labels the fact that people with impairments are disadvantaged (in the labour market or other spheres of life)

6. General issues 2: People are either capable of work, or not Distribution of employment disadvantage associated with disability

7. Research: Analysis of General Household Survey, 1974-2005: – 360,000 adults aged 20-59, – harmonised variables Logistic regression equation predicting probability of being in work (pseudo R2 = 28%), controlling for – Gender and family structure – Age – Educational qualifications – Ethnic group – Regional unemployment rate – Stage in the business cycle – Disability (limiting long standing illness)

8. Prevalence of limiting long-standing illness, 1974-2005

9. Disability employment penalty: A measure of how much less likely disabled people are to have a job, compared with other people with the same characteristics

10. Employment penalties, 1975-2004

11. ‘Disability impact score’ 0.66 if LLI + 0.30 x the number of conditions if LLI + 0.54 if ‘other’ conditions of the circulatory system and LLI +1.32 if mental illness +0.56 if ‘other’ conditions of the nervous system +0.45 if cancer +0.29 if arthritis Limiting long-standing illness 1.51 if LLI

12. Disability impact score 0.66 if LLI + 0.30 x the number of conditions if LLI + 0.54 if ‘other’ conditions of the circulatory system and LLI +1.32 if mental illness +0.56 if ‘other’ conditions of the nervous system +0.45 if cancer +0.29 if arthritis Percent of total Mean impact score Percent in work Logistic coefficient None 81.5077%0 ‘Minimal’ 1.90.4470%-0.33 ‘Low’ 6.60.9663%-0.87 ‘Moderate’ 3.21.2653%-1.13 ‘High’ 3.51.5743%-1.67 ‘Severe’ 3.22.4427%-2.45

13. Comparing severity of disadvantage Employment penalties by grade Distribution of grades of disability

14. Comparing the rise in prevalence of disability with the increase in the disability employment penalty

15. Number of working age claimants of benefits on grounds of incapacity for work, 1972-2010

16. Numbers of disabled people disadvantaged in employment: GHS estimates compared with incapacity benefits in payment MenWomen

17. Conclusions The prevalence of disability The disability employment penalty Severe vs minor sets of impairments The operation of the benefits system

18. R. Berthoud, ‘Trends in the employment of disabled people in Britain’, ISER WP 2011-03, University of Essex http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/working-papers/iser/2011-03