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Will Hubbard Brook Soils Be a Source

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Presentation on theme: "Will Hubbard Brook Soils Be a Source"— Presentation transcript:

1 Will Hubbard Brook Soils Be a Source
or Sink of Carbon in a Changing Climate? Chris Johnson Syracuse University

2 Acknowledgments Alain Dib
M.S. Thesis: “Simulating Effects of a Changing Climate and Higher CO2 Emissions on Soil Carbon Pools at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Using CENTURY and RothC” Yabroudi/ Ghazeleh/ Al-Bitar Fellowship Fund Manuscript in revision – Global Change Biology

3 Carbon in HBEF Soils

4 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition

5 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools

6 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools Higher soil temperatures → Longer growing season Higher soil moisture → Less frequent water stress

7 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools Increased Tree Growth Higher soil temperatures → Longer growing season Higher soil moisture → Less frequent water stress

8 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools Increased Litterfall Increased Tree Growth Higher soil temperatures → Longer growing season Higher soil moisture → Less frequent water stress

9 Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools Increased Soil C Pools Increased Litterfall Increased Tree Growth Higher soil temperatures → Longer growing season Higher soil moisture → Less frequent water stress

10 ??? Climate Change and Soil Carbon
Higher soil temperatures → Faster decomposition Higher soil moisture → Faster decomposition Decreased Soil C Pools ??? Increased Soil C Pools Increased Litterfall Increased Tree Growth Higher soil temperatures → Longer growing season Higher soil moisture → Less frequent water stress

11 Models and Parameterization
CENTURY: Comprehensive; includes plant-growth sub-model, incorporates CO2 effects. RothC: Relatively simple; litter inputs manually entered. Both models were parameterized using data from Watersheds 5 (pre-cutting) and 6. Model  Measured % Difference  Soil C Pool (g C m-2): CENTURY 6888 6920 -0.46% Soil C Resp. (g C m-2 yr-1): RothC 392 400 -2.00%

12 Validation Model performance was tested using data from the Watershed 5 clear-cutting experiment

13 Prediction If changing climate and CO2 have no effect on forest productivity… -8% -30% HBEF soils are likely to be a net source of Carbon

14 Prediction If forest productivity responds positively to changing climate and CO2 +7% +2% HBEF soils may be a modest net sink for Carbon

15 Conclusions Both CENTURY and RothC are viable soil carbon models for HBEF soils. The source/sink behavior of soil carbon depends on the response of forest productivity to increased CO2 and changing climate.

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