1. Planning ACT’s Water Supply
for Climate Change
Kirilly Dickson
Sustainability Advisor
September 2006

2. When is a new supply likely to be needed?
Report December 2004
Where would be the best place to get it?
Report April 2005
Ongoing Work post April 2005

3. Water Supply Planning Key Variables
Climate change
Bushfire recovery
Population growth (NSW supply)
Demand management
Water Restrictions
Environmental flows – under review

4. What will happen? CSIRO, 2003 20% reduction in runoff
temp increase by 0.4 to 1.6 deg C by 2030,
higher evaporation

5. Supply - How we used this?
Generated a stochastic 2030 climate change data sequence
Used variability & skewness of entire 133 yrs of historic record
Average rainfall and evaporation since 1976 but adjusted to account for reduced rainfall and increased evaporation as per CSIRO projections

6. Water supply

7. Supply

8. Demand – how we used this?
Built a new demand model
Generated 10,000 years of monthly demands
Based on 2030 stochastic rainfall and evaporation sequences

9. Water demand

10. Other effects - bushfires

11. Other effects - bushfires

12. Overall impact

13. Is it happening?

14. Is it happening?

15. Is it worse than we think?

16. Thank you ?