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WWW.BJERKNES.UIB.NO Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A.

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Presentation on theme: "WWW.BJERKNES.UIB.NO Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A. Sorteberg

2 Motivation Expected change in rainfall (SRES A1B) Dryer Wetter Dryer
Bergen

3 Motivation: precipitation on Norwegian west coast
November – Januar 2007 Nov Jan 2005: mm Nov 2006 – Jan 2007: mm 2005 1993 1992

4 More extremes observed

5 High-resolution climatology in Norway
ERA-40 (1.1 deg.) WRF to 30 km and 10 km – nudged and free Arpege GCM (appr. 50 km) - nudged and free Control run: Evaluation against surface parameters of Norwegian met. office “Comparison” with 12 RCM’s from ENSEMBLES project

6 Domain: 30 km – 10 km

7 Details Very large outer domain to increase RCM independency
30 km / 10 km / 40 vertical levels to 50 hPa Default microphysics, PBL schemes Noah land-surface, CAM radiation 1-way nesting Spectral nudging in outer domain waves -> 1000 km no nudging in PBL weak nudging (every 24 hrs) of u,v,gph no nudging of humidity

8 Results – precipitation ERA40 – WRF nudged
Bias of 30-year mean daily precipitation (%)

9 Results - precipitation

10 Results – precipitation ERA40 – WRF nudged
0.95 0.99 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7

11 Results – 2m temperature ERA40 – WRF nudged

12 Results – 2m temperature ERA40 – WRF nudged

13 Results - overview

14 Sensitivity to nudging - precipitation
NUDGED FREE

15 Sensitivity to nudging - precipitation
ERA-40 Arpege N to ERA40

16 Summary WRF reproduces observed climate 1961-1990 reasonably well
10 km resolution improves precipitation, surface temperature and winds extremes better represented High resolved North Atlantic advantageous for Norwegian (European) west coast: phase of precipitation events improved temperature bias significantly reduced, especially between regions spectral nudging essential to keep low pressure systems consistent with driving data What about forcing with GCM data?

17

18 Results – 2m temperature

19 Results - Extreme precipitation

20 Results - Extreme temperature

21 Results – 10m wind coast only

22

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