1. Data & Implications for the Western Region
Good afternoon and welcome to the Knocking at the College Door Regional Webinar Series. Today’s webinar is Data & Implications for the Western Region.
My name is Peace Bransberger and I’m the Senior Research Analyst at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education and co-author of Knocking at the College Door. I will be your moderator today and will be joined by two respondents who will provide thoughts on the implications of these trends for their state, higher education enrollment and access, workforce trends and state and institutional decision-making.
Before we get started, WICHE would like to thank ACT and the College Board for their generous financial support of Knocking at the College Door. Without their partnership and collaboration, these projections would not be possible.
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Thursday, January 19, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Logistics Your Participation
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Your Participation
[SLIDE 2] First I’d like to run through a bit of housekeeping information.
All attendees will be muted; however you should be able to hear at this point. You can click on the small orange box on the right side of your screen to access the “Audio” tab on the control panel to connect via your computer speakers or to access dial-in information.
We’ll be taking all questions today via the “Question” box, which you’ll also find in the control panel on the right of your screen. We will monitor and respond to incoming questions throughout, so please submit your questions as they come up. We’ll also have time for Q&A towards the end of the webinar for questions.
The presentation slides and copies of the Knocking report are included for you to download from the Handouts portion of the control panel.
After the webinar concludes we will be posting a recording of the presentation on our website, and we’ll let you know via when it’s available. Lastly, you’ll be directed to a brief evaluation of the webinar when you leave the event. We rely on your feedback to help us develop useful resources, so we appreciate you taking the time to complete the short evaluation.

3. Agenda High School Graduate Trends Implications Q & A
Peace Bransberger, Senior Research Analyst, WICHE
Implications
Kim Poast, Executive Director, Office of College
and Career Readiness, Denver Public Schools
Rod Gramer, Executive Director, Idaho Business for Education 
Q & A
[SLIDE 3] I will present the high school graduate trends as the first part of the webinar. Then we will hear from our panelists – Kim Poast of Denver Public Schools’ Office of College and Career Readiness and Rod Gramer with Idaho Business for Education and Workforce– with their impressions of these projections and what they mean for the work they do.
We will leave time at the end of the webinar to address your questions. So please submit your questions in the Questions box.

4. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Public and Private High School Graduates
Public by Race/Ethnicity
Nation
Four Geographical Regions
50 States and DC
First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico
[SLIDE 4]
Let me begin with a few important details about the data.
We use what is called a cohort-survival ratio method to generate the projections. We gather the most recently available data from the federal Common Core of Data and Private School Survey. For this edition, school year was the most recent data for the most part, with some variation across public and private school data. From these data, we compute ratios, or patterns of progression from grade-to-grade onto graduation. We use the five most recent years’ patterns to project the number of students and eventually graduates, in the future years. If we used just student data, we could only project about a decade out. We add in data about births in recent years to project out further, about 18 years.
So, based on the data we use, the projections begin with school year by and large. And, the projections extend out to school year We make projections for the nation, region and the 50 states and District of Columbia – and for the first time this edition, also for Puerto Rico and Guam. We are able to disaggregate the numbers by race/ethnicity for public school students, which are about 90% of the total. We continue to produce detailed numbers in the five longstanding racial/ethnic categories for public school students—Hispanics, which include all students of any Hispanic origin regardless of race. And, four non-Hispanic race categories – White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native. We provide some information about the proportions of Two or more races and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander students in the report, even though we could not produce projections for these populations separately because of insufficient data.
Over the years, the number of U.S.-born kids – and how they fare getting through school – has been the primary determinant of the high school graduate trends. We don’t explicitly model or quantify the various factors that influence how students progress through school, such as being retained in a grade or promoted early, moving between schools, locales or states, policy changes, or economic or other environmental factors. These sorts of things are implicit in the enrollment and graduate counts and progression ratios. We also can’t know exactly how much immigration adds to high school graduate numbers – but, our analysis indicates it was notable in prior years of high immigration and has reduced recently with declines in immigration.
You can find detail about the data and methodology in the appendix of the publication.

5. U.S. High School Graduates
So, let’s begin with the national trends for high school graduates.
The big national headlines are that despite the recent improvements in the official high school graduation rate, the sheer number of youth is moderating. This leads to a slowdown and even declines in the number of high school graduates. And, underlying the limited growth and eventual decreased number of high school graduates are long-predicted decreases in the number of White youth – including those who attend and graduate from private schools -- and growing non-White student populations.
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

6. U.S. High School Graduates
Projections
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
3.44M
3.56M ('25)
3.30M
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
White
Hispanic
These two charts illustrate the projected national trends. The chart on the left shows the populations of public school graduates by race/ethnicity, plus graduates of private schools, from the first projected year to the last. The top line shows the total and several counts over these 18 years. The line chart on the right indicates the year-over-year increase or decrease in the number of each population of graduates over those years, compared to their numbers from the last confirmed school year,
In total -- after almost two decades of steady growth in the number of high school graduates averaging about 2% annually, the nation reached a high of about 3.44 million grads around 2013.
Between now and about 2025, there is virtually no increase projected, except for a few years of small increase around 2025, when the nation will produce about 3.5 to 3.6 million high school graduates. After 2025, the number of high school graduates nationally is projected to decrease steadily, to about 3.3 million (about 7 percent fewer by around 2030). These decreases in the outer years arise from long-predicted contraction of the White youth population, compounded by dramatic birth declines for all populations during and after the great recession.
White public school graduates are projected to decrease by 17 percent by the early 2030s, about a quarter million fewer graduates than in In Barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. They are projected to be 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance to majority-minority within the span of these projections.
Hispanic high school graduates are the primary growth population, increasing almost 50 percent by 2025, from 640 thousand in 2013 to almost 900 thousand. During the growth years, the additional number of Hispanic graduates more than offsets the declines of White graduates. But then even Hispanic graduates are projected to decrease in number between 2025 and the early 2030s, as a result of the recent birth declines, which were greatest among Hispanics.
Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are the only population projected to increase throughout, but they are only about 5 to 7% of the total number of graduates nationally, so their numbers don’t shift the overall trend of decline.
Black high school graduates are about 15 percent of the national total and they will be relatively steady in number throughout the projections.
The numbers for American Indian/Alaska Native students nationally are very small compared to other students populations, but overall there is a decline.
High school graduates from private religious and independent schools are projected to decrease by about 26 percent, about 80,000 graduates, in reflection of their largely White student demographic, but also due to significant contraction among religious schools over the last decade or so.
We couldn’t produce separate counts for Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates or two or more races graduate, because of data limitations. But recent years indicated Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates are about 7 percent of the combined Asian total, about 10,000 high school graduates in recent years. Graduates of multiple races have represented between 1 to 3 percent of non-Hispanic public high school graduates in recent years.
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools

7. Significant Regional Variation
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

8. Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates
Here we see those regional differences. The number of graduates for each region you see here is the region’s high point.
The Northeast and Midwest reached their high points for high school graduates in school year The number of graduates from these regions have already begun decreasing and will continue to decline throughout the projected years.
The South is the engine of growth for high school graduates. By 2025, it will generate about 10 percent more graduates than in 2013 and is primarily responsible for the growth predicted for the nation around About 45 percent of the nation’s graduates will be from the South region by 2030.

9. The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates
And now let’s look at the trends for the Western region.
I should mention that WICHE puts North and South Dakota in the West, not the Midwest, because they are WICHE member states.
Tracks the National trend
30% of the Nation’s graduates
Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pac. Isl. grads

10. West Region High School Graduates
Projections
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
862K ('24)
832K
789K
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White
White
Hispanic
The West generally tracks the national trend--with slight increases through 2025 and then decline.
The West overtook the Midwest region in terms of numbers of high school graduates produced, by 2010, and now produces about 30 percent of the nation’s high school graduates.
The West region has long been the most diverse region, and produced the most Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates of all the regions. Perhaps the most surprising for the West is the rapid contraction in high school graduates that is projected after 2025, slightly higher rates of decline than the nation overall. The West is impacted by reductions in the number of White high school graduates, but less so than the nation overall. Rather, the West’s projected declines in high graduate after 2025 arise from dramatic declines in the number of Hispanic graduates.
By the end of the projections, the South will produce more Hispanic graduates than the West, and have virtually the same rate of diversity in its high school graduating classes.
And, while Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are a growth population for the other regions, in the West their numbers remain at best stable and may even decline slightly.
The West produces almost half of the nation’s American Indian/Alaska Native high school graduates, and their numbers are projected to decrease somewhat over the course of the projections.
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools

11. Minority Enrollments Moderate for the West
West Region
SY SY
Projections begin
The Knocking projections focus on high school graduates. But we also produce grade-level enrollment projections by state and race/ethnicity as part of generating the graduate numbers. The enrollment projections are useful glimpses of current and near-future waves of students in the school pipeline. This chart of enrollments by race/ethnicity over 3 decades illustrates how demographic shifts in earlier grade levels leads to future graduate trends. [LASER]
The elementary and middle school projections end in earlier years than do the high school projections, so the full pipeline snapshot is available only for 2000, 2010 and 2020.
This illustrates the contraction in White enrollments over those decades, occurring at the same time as substantial increases in Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander enrollments, in particular—albeit much slowed by 2020.

12. High School Graduates by State
West Region
821K / year on average
4% by then 8% by
Non-White 3% to 57% of Public Total
Alaska
7,900 on average
Non-White  5% to 45% of Total
Arizona
66,900 on average, 14% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 55% of Total
California
426,400 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total
[1/20/16 replaced California chart for all future uses of the slides—2024 data point was incorrect, showing 431K s/b 449K no new high]
Finally, let’s take a quick peek at each of the states in the West. Hopefully some of the similarities and differences jump out at you seeing states side-by-side. I will call attention to just a few things.
The West region as a whole is shown again, with relatively little increase in the number of high school graduates overall, ending in declines. Non-white graduates are already about 54% of the total and increase to 57% by the early 2030s. There are two summary data points with each state chart here – the average number of graduates annually, and by how much non-white graduates will increase or decrease.
Alaska has a generally flat trend with small increases for all but White graduates through 2025.
Arizona has generated about 8 percent of the West’s high school graduates, and California 55 percent, in recent years. Both of these states are projected to have 14 percent fewer high school graduates by the early 2030s. While many of the West states are projected to grow, the declines in these two states contribute substantially to the projected declines for the region. In both states, the declines are concentrated with Hispanic graduates.

13. High School Graduates by State
Colorado
58,000 on average
Non-White  2% to 38% of Total
Hawaii
14,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 89% of Total
Idaho
21,000 on average
Non-White  8% to 26% of Total
Montana
10,000 on average
Non-White  5% to 18% of Total
Nevada
24,700 on average, 12% by ‘32
Non-White  8% to 60% of Total
New Mexico
20,200 on average,15% by ‘32
Non-White  6% to 77% of Total
On this slide you see several of the Western states which are projected to have growth throughout the projected years. We will hear from Kim soon about what Denver is experiencing. Colorado as a whole is projected to have a steady number of White high school graduates, plus abundant increases of Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. It’s about the same pattern for Idaho, but in fact, Idaho is projected to experience even greater rates of increase in Hispanic graduates, which Rod might like to comment on.
Nevada and New Mexico are projected to experience 12 to 15 percent decreases in the number of high school graduates by the early 2030s, largely among Hispanics. Hawaii and Montana will have moderate increases in high school graduates, with increases for the most part arising from Hispanics.

14. High School Graduates by State
North Dakota
8,900 on average
Non-White  20% to 32% of Total
Oregon
36,500 on average, 7% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 30% of Total
South Dakota
9,200 on average
Non-White  14% to 26% of Total
Utah
39,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 21% of Total
Washington
71,800 on average
Non-White  10% to 41% of Total
Wyoming
6,200 on average
Non-White  5% to 19% of Total
The remaining Western states on this slide are all projected to have increases of high school graduates, with Oregon being the only one of them that will increase to around , but then fall back in number below where it started in For all of these states, the growth primarily comes from Hispanics with some small addition from other minority graduates, Oregon included.
Wyoming and Utah will also see increases of White high school graduates. North Dakota is projected to have rapid increases across the board in each race/ethnicity, predicted by the rapid in-migration for the oil and gas industry, which could of course change depending on what occurs going forward with that industry.

15. www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data
You can obtain the projections in a variety of formats by going to our website at [CLICK TO OPEN WEBPAGE]
You can get PDF copies of the report, which includes the state-by-state numbers in Appendix A.
You can download the projections as an Excel file on the Data page. And, you can view State, Regional and National Profiles about the projections and including other contextual indicators such as academic preparation, educational attainment and family incomes by race/ethnicity for the state.
PAUSE FOR QUESTIONS, IF ANY

16. Implications Rod Gramer Kim Poast
Executive Director, Office of College and Career Readiness, Denver Public Schools
Rod Gramer
Executive Director, Idaho Business for Education
I’d like to now turn to our respondents, Kim Poast from Denver Public Schools and Rod Gramer from Idaho Business for Education.
Kim and Rod – Can both of you please take two or three minutes to describe the organization/institution you represent and your initial impressions of Knocking’s findings. Kim, I’ll turn to you first. [When Kim finishes speaking], And Rod…
Kim, We have just heard about the shift underway in primary and secondary schools. Increasing diversity arising from fewer White students and increasing numbers of Hispanic and Asian students. We know that historically there have achievement gaps between White students and students of color. Can you discuss what these projections mean for schools in Colorado, and give us some examples of what Denver Public Schools has been doing to improve academic performance and college readiness for all students?
Rod - And what do you see as implications for our nation’s workforce and Idaho in particular? Can you talk a bit about what these projections mean in light of your work and what do you hope to see going forward?
Kim - Many promising efforts around the country that have demonstrated improved academic performance involve partnerships and collaboration between K-12 and higher education. Would you like to comment on partnership efforts that you know of or are involved in that have demonstrated success with students?
Rod – Given these projections, what can business and industry do alone and/or in partnership with K-12 or higher education to respond to the changing youth population?
Rod and Kim - From each of your perspectives, what should state policymakers consider in light of these projections?

17. Q & A Submit questions and feedback in the Questions panel.
We will now open it up for your questions.

18. Thank You! Please complete the evaluation when you exit the webinar
Contact: Peace Bransberger /
We are out of time. I’d like to extend a big thank you to our panelists for taking the time to be with us today, and to all of you for attending and contributing such thoughtful questions.
There will be a very brief survey as you exit the webinar, which we hope you will take the time to complete.
If you submitted a question that we didn’t get to, we will you to follow up. I will leave the webinar open for about five minutes to receive any more questions through the question box.
You will receive an notification when the recording is available, please share it with colleagues who were not able to attend today.
Please feel free to us at You can sign up for notifications about the Knocking at the College Door projections and any additional reports we may produce, or sign up for webinars about the other regions’ trends, at
Have a great afternoon!