1. Protecting nature: dealing with uncertainty Natura 2000
Judith Floor
Jan van Tatenhove & Kris van Koppen
Environmental Policy Group
Wageningen University, NL
Protecting nature:
dealing with uncertainty
Other recommendation: To address uncertainties in effect assessments, only monitoring is insufficient to deal with ambiguities.
Natura 2000
Areas protected under the European Bird and Habitat Directives
To acquire a permit for human activities, initiators are obliged to assess “significant effect” on conservation objectives
EU court ruling stated that there should be: “no scientific doubt” over the assessment of no significant effect
The mussel seed fishery case
No significant effect
Uncertainty of incomplete knowledge is addressed through monitoring
Permit invalid
Inadequate understanding of seabed effects to assess no significant effect without reasonable scientific doubt
Supreme court of Justice
Possible significant effects
Uncertainty of incomplete knowledge on seabed effects
Ambiguity on long-term effects
Coalition of nature organisations,
supported by scientists
Coalition of government and mussel farmers
Research approach
Analysing “significant effect” as boundary object, to unpack the science-policy interactions between researchers, interest groups and governmental permit authorities
Analysing the expression of three types of uncertainty: incomplete knowledge, unpredictability and ambiguity
Conclusion: Not all uncertainties were addressed
Not knowing enough
Incomplete
knowledge
Unpredictability
Knowing differently
Ambiguity
Only incomplete knowledge was acknowledged in the legal debate
Ambiguity was the driver of the debate
Unpredictability did not fit within the legal context
How to deal with uncertainties:
A dynamic ecosystem with tidal channels, mudflats, salt marches, beaches and dunes
Internationally important for millions of migrating birds
Acknowledge value judgement
Valuation is a structural element of assessments
There is a need of a political debate over what is acceptable, instead of conflicts through scientific arguments
Address ambiguity
To address ambiguity only the obligation of monitoring is insufficient
A broader approach of debate is necessary, beyond an significant effect assessment
The Dutch Wadden Sea